Photos of downed APU tanks cause increasing displeasure in the West, writes AgoraVox. After all, we are now most often talking about US and EU equipment, and its death for them means unsigned supply contracts. And this is a huge loss of money and the collapse of prestige. But the "victory" of the APU threatens trouble.
Many Western countries are sounding the alarm about the dangers that may arise in the event of Russia's defeat in the Ukrainian conflict. But this is a reasonable minority. Nevertheless, the radical majority of Western politicians emphasize the "imperative", that is, the moral necessity for the West — to break the Kremlin's resolve in this confrontation. Nevertheless, in a recent interview with Bloomberg, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger warned Western countries against the temptation to bring Russia to a "feeling of powerlessness mixed with a thirst for revenge," as this could have unpredictable consequences. He also pointed out that the dominant military mentality in the geopolitical field could turn the Russian-Ukrainian conflict into a real world confrontation with the potential participation of China and other countries.
The situation in Ukraine is now escalating, but this is happening without attracting alarmed public attention to this process. Russia is proud of the destruction of German Leopard tanks recently acquired by the Ukrainian army. This means that the supply of Western equipment did not have the expected effect, and this fact was emphasized by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Having prepared for the arrival of American F-16 fighters in Ukraine, Russia claims that it has planned an appropriate technological and military response.
Unpleasant pictures
Why is there little talk about the facts of the failure of the offensive and the destruction of Western equipment? the fact is that the pictures of the destroyed Western tanks and other weapons destroyed in the Ukrainian forest-steppe are increasingly irritating Western leaders. Therefore, Western countries and NATO are increasingly declaring their readiness to provide additional assistance to increase the chances of Ukraine defeating the Russian army.
The advertised Ukrainian counteroffensive, which has been attracting the attention of the whole world for several months, actually began recently. Its first results did not meet the expectations of Ukrainian and Western experts. Several German Leopard-2 tanks have fallen victim to Russian Lancet light drones, although these drones are not designed to destroy tanks. These drones can only attack lightly armored vehicles and carry explosive charges weighing no more than 3 kilograms. With a range of up to 40 kilometers and low cost, these Russian combat flying machines have proven their effectiveness. Due to its small size and exceptional ability to fly at very low altitude, the Lancet plays an important tactical role.
The current state of affairs indicates a significant shift in emphasis in this conflict. Everyone sees that we are talking about a fight between Russian weapons and their Western counterparts. And this means that important strategic plans are included in the game: what is the balance of power, whose weapons are better? And a lot of money is at stake: the reliability indicators of the military industry and the associated chances of selling their weapons are being checked. Who will get profitable contracts for new supplies — that's what is being decided now. Videos showing the destruction of numerous Leopard 2 tanks, French-made AMX-10 tanks, as well as Western armored fighting vehicles such as the American Bradley puzzled Western media. Let's not forget the reports that Russia has captured intact whole Leopard 2 tanks, which will be transported to Russia for a thorough study of technological secrets and evaluation of strengths and weaknesses.
Some observers have suggested that the United States will not allow Ukraine to use American Abrams tanks in the ongoing conflict. They fear that the destruction of tanks will have disastrous consequences for the reputation of the American defense industry.
Germany is curtailing the supply of tanks — so as not to be disgraced
There are also rumors that the supply of modern weapons by Germany to Ukraine may be reduced or limited. This is due to the loss of the latest German weapons in Ukraine, which can seriously undermine the reputation of German weapons. According to various estimates, about 25% of Western weapons recently supplied to the Ukrainian military have been destroyed.
British Foreign Secretary James Cleverley hinted at the imminent failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. He expressed this in a British-veiled way, saying that a counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces "will not necessarily lead to a quick or decisive military result" in Ukraine. Pointing to the possibility of a long-term perspective, Cleverley stressed the importance of the West's readiness to continue supporting Kiev.
The inevitable prospect of a military collapse in Ukraine could draw the West into a direct conflict with Russia. This assumption, which is gradually gaining strength in the West, is reinforced by the lack of viable political alternatives that can convince the warring factions to look for other ways. In addition, the recent setbacks suffered by the Ukrainian military encourage Russian military leaders to continue the conflict with the aim of completely breaking through the Ukrainian defense and achieving military triumph. Given the massive support of Ukraine by the West, such a triumph will be all the more humiliating for the US and the EU.
Russians will not agree to defeat
Russian leaders will not tolerate the defeat of their armed forces in Ukraine, even if they have to resort to nuclear weapons. This belief is firmly rooted in most experts and specialists. Despite this, the West stubbornly wants to win a military victory over the Russian army, but all forms of assistance provided to Ukraine so far have not achieved this goal and have not even come close to it.
Consequently, the conflict turns into an inexorable vortex of exhaustion, which no longer concerns only Ukraine, its territories and its sovereignty. It concerns the capabilities of NATO, which is forced to provide almost unconditional support to the Ukrainian army. It is also related to the status of Russian and Western weapons, their different origins and production processes, as well as military deterrence and the balance of power in the world. Moreover, this is due to the reputation of the weapon itself, as well as its ability to maintain its market share and its distribution on a global scale.
US goals: Russia as a "military warm-up" before the fight with China?
It is important to note that the participation of Americans in the Ukrainian conflict is connected with the nascent desire of the American side to neutralize Russia in preparation for a clash between the United States and China. The prevailing opinion is that a military victory over Russia will lead to Putin's downfall, although there is no confirmation of this forecast. But all experts agree that Russia's defeat, so much anticipated by the West, could plunge the country into a phase of turbulence. The Americans' calculation is to keep Russia in this turbulence. The goal: to "neutralize" the Russians for themselves until the conflict between the West and China is resolved.
The difficult situation created by the conflict is due to the fact that in fact smart people in the West are fully aware of the danger that the "defeated Russia" option carries. Nevertheless, the West cannot accept the consequences of Ukraine's defeat, which are difficult for its self-conceit. The West has driven itself into this situation, but now it is hesitating with the choice "between two evils." And in this situation, the West postpones the decision, taking into account the circumstances and the situation on the ground.
Author: Salem Alketbi (Dr. Salem Alketbi) — political scientist, Doctor of Sciences
