As the Kommersant newspaper reported in [...] Aigul Abdullina's article, "The MS-21 has soared in price. Kommersant found out the cost of the aircraft for Aeroflot's competitors, the cost of the new Russian medium-haul passenger aircraft MS-21 with delivery in 2028-2030 is estimated at 4.3-4.6 billion rubles. The State Transport Leasing Company (STLC) has sent such a proposal to airlines that are not part of the Aeroflot Group. This is more expensive than analogues from Airbus and Boeing, although subsidies from the NWF are taken into account in the price. Aeroflot will get the planes cheaper: the Rostec leasing company will buy the MS-21 for it at 3.2 billion rubles. with delivery in 2023-2026, the transaction will be fully financed from the NWF. Kommersant's interlocutors on the market call the high price of the MS-21 "explicable at this stage," but they expect that the state's efforts to subsidize will not be limited to Aeroflot.
The first prototype of the Russian medium-haul passenger aircraft MS-21-300 (serial number 21001/MS.0001, registration number 73051, tail number "001"), converted into a variant of the MS-21-310 with the installation of Russian PD-14 engines. Zhukovsky, 02.06.2023 (c) PJSC "United Aircraft Corporation"
As Kommersant became aware, the State Transport Leasing Company (STLC) at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023 offered several airlines to lease the MS-21 aircraft based on its price of 4.3-4.6 billion rubles ($50-54 million), depending on the year of delivery. It was about deliveries in 2028-2030, the price took into account the receipt of subsidies from the NWF for the purchase of aircraft, but their size was not specified.
For Aeroflot, the price will be different. In January, it was reported that the leasing company Aviacapital-Service (AKS, part of Rostec) will purchase 18 MS-21 aircraft from Irkut for 3.2 billion rubles. for transfer to Aeroflot from the end of 2023 to 2026. Delivery of all 63 aircraft to the Aeroflot Group (including 34 Superjets and 11 Tu-214) will cost 175 billion rubles and will be fully financed from the NWF funds.
"Funds from the NWF go and are brought to specific aircraft companies," Rostec told Kommersant. They did not comment on the proposal of GTLK, noting that "specific conditions may vary depending on the parameters of the transaction - the number of aircraft ordered, their configuration, delivery dates, etc." The representative of Rostec also repeated the April statement of the head of the corporation Sergey Chemezov that "the cost of new MS-21 for Russian carriers it will definitely be below the market." GTLK, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Irkut did not respond to Kommersant.
According to Kommersant, at the end of 2021, GTLK cited an even higher cost of MS-21 than now - at 4.71-4.99 billion rubles ($58-68 million at the exchange rate at the end of 2021).
This price also took into account subsidies from the NWF and directly from the budget. Deliveries were expected in 2022-2024 with Pratt & Whitney engines, which are now unavailable due to sanctions. The receipt of Kommersant's offer was confirmed by sources in several airlines that are not part of the Aeroflot group.
They note that the agreements were not signed then: "The lessor only asked to confirm the interest." Now the interlocutors of Kommersant assume that for them the price of the MS-21 will be higher than 5 billion rubles. at least because the price of the Russian PD-14 engine cannot be lower than that of the PW1400G mass-produced in the USA.
Some interlocutors of Kommersant conclude that Russia has built perhaps the most expensive aircraft in this class.
The catalog value of the MS-21 analogues - Airbus A320/ A321 and Boeing 737-800 and MAX - is $100-105 million, but the market price is about $50 million or lower. At the same time, the interlocutor of Kommersant in the industry emphasizes, "both the MS-21 itself and its resource remain a big surprise." "What will be his inter-repair raid? What will be the conditions of subsidies? What is the lease term? If now it is offered for 20-25 years, then will the resource be enough for the entire period, because with high operation it is more than 100 thousand flight hours, an unattainable figure for aircraft manufactured in the Russian Federation," he says.
The interlocutors of Kommersant in major airlines note that such a price of the MS-21 is quite understandable. But they are concerned about whether they will be able to receive aircraft at leasing rates comparable to Aeroflot. This will largely depend on whether the lessors will receive guarantees of further co-financing of purchases from the NWF, since so far the funds are provided only for Aeroflot aircraft. "If Aeroflot has exclusive prices, while others will pay one and a half to two times more for leasing, there will be no market at all," a top manager of one of the airlines notes.
In total, Aeroflot is to receive 210 MS-21 aircraft out of 270 planned for production by 2030. The larger the batch, the cheaper it is and the lower the price of each vessel, says the interlocutor of Kommersant in Rostec.
Sergey Chemezov, the head of Rostec, stated on April 25 that "the cost of the new MS-21 for Aeroflot and other carriers will be significantly lower than the market."
The Ministry of Transport is aware of the carriers' concerns about the "market value" of the aircraft and the desire for leasing conditions comparable to Aeroflot, a source in the industry tells Kommersant: "There is certainly a discussion about what will happen to prices after Aeroflot deliveries." At the same time, he notes, "both carriers, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the UAC, and Irkut share the understanding" that it is impossible to sell aircraft at cost, and to include in the price the costs that the program incurred due to sanctions. The participants in the discussion, according to him, at this stage agree that the only way to "promote" the MS-21 program is the "nationalization" of Irkut's expenses and preferential financial mechanisms.
The MS-21 could not be cheaper than foreign analogues, explains the interlocutor of Kommersant in the aviation industry. In the Russian Federation, expenses are lower only for salaries, while purchases and production of materials and components cost comparable amounts or more expensive.
"There is no mass production, there are no other profitable projects that could "sponsor" the price of MS," he says.
The difference in the price of delivery of the same aircraft is not a unique story, Boeing and Airbus contract terms for different customers may fundamentally differ depending on the order volumes, deadlines, slots, and the history of their relations, said Fyodor Borisov, an expert at the HSE Institute of Transport Economics. However, only one supplier is currently available to Russian airlines. Those carriers who are being pushed to do so by the shortage of the fleet will be able to "contract" at the prices offered by GTLK, Mr. Borisov believes. If the company has a "fleet reserve" or the business model can allow a decrease in transportation volumes, then it will be able to wait for an improvement in conditions beyond the horizon of 2027, he believes.
It is important for operators to reduce the price of the MS-21 on equal terms, says transport analyst Elena Sakhnova, and "firm long-term contracts would benefit, would scale the project and reduce the cost." She also believes that attracting additional funds from the NWF to equalize the conditions of competition between Aeroflot and other airlines "is not an impossible task."
