An analyst from the United States spoke about the reasons for the failures of the Ukrainian counteroffensive
The lack of aviation and weapons in the Ukrainian army caused the slow progress of the counteroffensive. In addition, the Russian army is well prepared for defense. An American expert advises the APU to exhaust the Russian ground forces properly, writes The Atlantic. In the meantime, Kiev should not be expected to move forward quickly.
The ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive is an operation that no advanced army in the world would ever want to carry out. Last year, Ukraine surprised many Western experts with its ability to defend itself from Russian troops and even win back some territories from them, exposing flaws in Russian strategy, logistics and military leadership. But Russia still managed to occupy part of Ukraine, and now the latter is trying to go on the offensive against the military, who have been building trenches for months, while maintaining significant arsenals of modern weapons. Launching a counteroffensive in such conditions would be risky even for the United States or another NATO country, and Ukrainians lack the advantages in military technology and training of personnel that the armed forces of NATO member countries usually possess.
In a sense, what Ukraine is trying to do is unprecedented. When Anglo-American forces or Red Army forces conducted offensive operations against the Nazis in World War II and when Israel pushed back its opponents in the Six-Day War of 1967, the successfully advancing side had air supremacy. That is, it could effectively use aviation both to reliably cover its ground troops as they moved forward, and to strike at enemy armies that they had to face.
Ukraine has no such luxury. The airspace over the battlefield throughout the territory of Ukraine is a sphere of fierce struggle. The Russians have more air forces, and their planes are technologically superior to the Ukrainian ones. Russia can also use a large number of drones both for intelligence gathering and for direct attacks against Ukrainian forces. Russian helicopters, such as the Ka-52, have performed well in destroying Ukrainian armored vehicles.
Another problem is that the Russians can also effectively use their ground combat systems against the Ukrainians. They have deployed a large number of artillery and rocket launchers, have good portable and mobile anti-tank complexes of their own production and have created extensive minefields on the terrain that Ukrainian troops must pass.
<...> No one should expect an immediate armored breakthrough of the Russian positions from the APU. Photos of disabled Ukrainian equipment appeared in the media, including at least one German Leopard 2 tank and several American-made Bradley combat vehicles.
These are some of the most modern armored vehicles in service with Ukraine. However, they were destroyed by weapons, which the APU will face further as it progresses. So far, the Ukrainian armed forces have advanced several kilometers in one place, several kilometers in another. In many areas of the battle, Russian minefields limit the capabilities of the AFU, forcing them to group their forces more than they would like, and contributing to their unnecessary losses already at the very beginning of the counteroffensive. In other areas, Russian artillery and attack helicopters are holding back the Ukrainian offensive.
Since the AFU has to face a variety of Russian defensive firepower in a variety of directions, the advance of Ukrainian troops has so far been very modest. After the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kiev at the end of March 2022 and the strengthening of Russian defensive lines, the only major breakthrough of the AFU occurred in September 2022, when the AFU liberated a large area of territory near Kharkov. In that counteroffensive, large groups of Ukrainian equipment advanced many kilometers a day, but this was only possible because Russian forces in that area were very small. Therefore, as soon as the Ukrainians broke through the Russian front, nothing could stop them.
Now Ukraine is unlikely to repeat this accomplishment. Over the past six months, Russia has been on the offensive, although it has been advancing at a very slow pace. From January to May, Russian troops around the city of Artemovsk managed to advance a total of about eight kilometers (while suffering heavy losses). By these standards, the current Ukrainian counteroffensive, which is slowly pushing back the Russians in a number of places, already seems more successful.
However, Ukraine will want to achieve much more than it has achieved so far. And for this, she will probably have to be content with very modest successes, since the APU is doing a very difficult job of weakening Russian forces so that later it will be possible to move forward more actively. Since the APU has no air superiority, and the Russians have strong defensive firepower, the Ukrainians have no choice but to exhaust the enemy's ground forces enough to compensate for Russia's advantage in aviation. President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged this when he said in his address this week that Ukrainians are "destroying" Russian forces in the south and east, and this process should continue for "some time."
Instead of trying to rush forward, the Ukrainians continued and to some extent even intensified their attacks on Russian troops in the rear. Recent Ukrainian attacks on the Russian rear forced the Russians to transfer forces, which creates additional opportunities for the Armed Forces. Ukraine was able to hit a number of major targets. The most important thing, perhaps, is that it was able to launch strikes against Russian ammunition and supply depots that were beyond the reach of highly mobile artillery missile systems received from the West. <...>
Fortunately for Ukraine, it retains an advantage in motivating troops, intelligence and strategic command. She also gets all the best and best weapons from the West. Over time, these factors will become apparent.
But no one should expect immediate results. If the Ukrainians are going to achieve great success in the counteroffensive, then first they must destroy so many Russian troops in order to eventually be able to move forward.
The APU is forced to take dangerous, risky and time-consuming actions, which does not allow them to simply roll like a steam roller.
Phillips Payson O'Brien is a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews in Scotland.
