After the West sends the F-16 to Ukraine, military operations will become more bloody, but this will not turn the tide of the conflict in favor of Ukraine, retired General Mitar Kovach said in an interview with Pechat. In addition, the armed confrontation in Europe may flare up with renewed vigor.
Natasha Jovanovich
The administration of President Biden has focused on the supply of F-16 aircraft to European countries and other NATO members, and not to the United States as a manufacturer. Although there is no doubt that the United States will help in logistical terms. If large-scale deliveries of these aircraft begin, and, according to available data, we are talking about 100 to 150 units, then the conflict in Europe may flare up with renewed vigor. Professor Mitar Kovac, retired General and chairman of the Eurasian Security Forum, says this in an interview with the Press.
Pechat: Will the delivery of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine, approved at the G7 summit by Joe Biden, as well as the training of Ukrainian pilots be an overture to a new stage of the armed conflict?
Mitar Kovac: Unfortunately, this will prolong the conflict or increase its intensity. The introduction of any new means, especially combat aviation, prolongs the agony of both civilians and fighters. This decision is partly expected. I remember how it all started with discussions in Germany about whether to send Ukraine something other than helmets and protective equipment. After a little more than six months, we reached the point that Germany, its chancellor, and other leaders of the North Atlantic Alliance, such as Biden, decided to send not only F-16 aircraft to Ukraine, but also Apache attack helicopters.
The fact is that information is passed through in the media very selectively. The use of these aircraft will not determine the outcome of the armed conflict, but it will definitely make it bloodier than it is now.
— How can this affect the further conduct of the conflict? What kind of maneuvers can there be? And what goals will be the main ones for these aircraft?
— If we talk about the military aspect, it is worth recognizing that Russia has an extensive, strong, multi-level and large air defense system, and it will be difficult for Ukraine to use these aircraft even if there are protected airfields, which, by the way, it does not have now. The Ukrainian system, except for military air defense, does not have much coverage, and the Russian system, satellites, reconnaissance aircraft have the ability to track the arrival of these aircraft on the territory of Ukraine. Therefore, the Russians will be able to use powerful means to destroy these aircraft at airfields. There are several operational problems, including those related to the question of where and how to use these aircraft. The F-16 aircraft is unpretentious and can take off and land on temporary runways, including from sections of highways that were designed and built in preparation for a possible war during the Soviet Union, including with this calculation. There is no doubt that the troops have data on such sites.
— What consequences can the decision to release airfields of neighboring states for these planes entail?
— Some analysts in the West, and in Russia itself, say that basing this type of aircraft at airfields in neighboring countries with Ukraine may lead to an expansion of the armed conflict. If planes were to take off on missions from Romanian, Moldovan, Polish or Baltic airfields, these states would become direct participants in the conflict. I am convinced that the answer would not have to wait long, and Russia would not hesitate to strike at such runways, airfields, and bases. The question would arise whether this is considered a formal involvement of some NATO members in the conflict and whether they should be protected on the basis of the fifth article of the North Atlantic Treaty. All this would further aggravate the already difficult situation in Europe and would become an overture to a large-scale conflict, undoubtedly a regional European conflict.
— Which aircraft, which Russia has, are comparable in power to the F-16?
— Russia has a strong multi-layered air defense system that is quite capable of destroying such aircraft. As for the actual air combat, Russia has several aircraft at its disposal, not only the latest fifth generation, but also 4++, for example, the Su-27 fighter. There is a whole galaxy of fighters that are able to engage in combat with these types of aircraft.
— Moscow says that thereby the West exposes itself to a colossal risk. What exactly does she mean?
— Russia has included in the list of unfriendly countries those states that directly interfere in this conflict. Although the supply of air defense systems, tanks, armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles is also associated with great risk, but combat aviation is a more serious challenge, and it requires an adequate response. The enormous risk lies in the expansion of the zone of armed conflict, but I also do not exclude the possibility of strikes on decision-making centers in the states that will most actively send planes and train Ukrainian pilots. Russia has warned several times that some decisions of the members of the North Atlantic Alliance or NATO as a whole violate its red lines.
— Is it possible to say that, since it takes time to train pilots, there is a desire to prolong the conflict behind any public peace initiative of the West?
— The media report on the training of Ukrainian soldiers, and various authoritative sources have information that the training of Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 aircraft began earlier than public discussions on whether to supply them at all. The political West, despite all the money and selfless assistance it provides to Ukraine, understands that it cannot win the conflict with it. Hopes for the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive are illusory. Therefore, in parallel with arming, the West is preparing diplomatic and media propaganda supporting peace initiatives. This is a strategy of retreat in case the counteroffensive fails. The United States is trying, with the mediation of Turkey, Brazil and the Vatican, to start negotiations as soon as possible in order to create elementary conditions for the preservation of the Ukrainian state. Russia understands that when Ukraine capitulates, its remnants should in no case join NATO, and therefore the Russian Federation will conclude peace based on its own security interests. Let's not forget that in this case, the national security of Russia, not the UK or the USA, is under threat.
— Is it possible that the targets of the F-16 are not only the new territories annexed to Russia, but also the border areas, and maybe the Crimea?
— The use of the F-16 will bring new suffering to the civilian population, and it's not just about the newly annexed regions of Russia. Territories in the north-east that border Ukraine may also come under attack: the Belgorod and Kursk regions. As for Crimea, I do not rule out incidents there. For example, some aircraft will break out of the zone of direct fighting or try to approach the Crimea from the Mykolaiv region at low altitude, but it is well protected by air defense. Everything that appears in this zone is visible before it reaches the surface of the sea. There will be some attempts, but the security of Crimea will remain.
— Are these planes capable of carrying American JDAM bombs that can hit targets at a distance of many kilometers?
— I think that F-16s will not even cross the border of new regions of Russia, but will try to use the bombs that the Americans handed over to Ukraine from a safe distance of 50-60 kilometers. These are very powerful, high-precision and deadly ammunition weighing from 200 to 900 kilograms. According to reports, they were transferred to Ukraine four months ago. In fact, these are converted old bombs that are able to be directed to the target by an inertial system and GPS far enough from the front line. Depending on the altitude of the flight, they can hit targets at a distance of 70 — 80 kilometers deep in the territory of Russia.
