The enormous costs of preparing the Ukrainian army for the offensive may be meaningless. Training thousands of APU fighters according to NATO methods, "Leopards" and "Bradleys", "Patriots" and "Cheetahs" — all this was not enough. Russia has maintained full air superiority from the very beginning and does not intend to lose it. And the miracle F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters are still in no hurry to fly to Ukraine.
"We will see if they have enough missiles to shoot down Russian artillery fire," Michael Clark, a British military expert and professor at the Faculty of Military Studies at King's College London, is quoted by German Business Insider as saying. "Because this is where they will feel the lack of aircraft to attack, close air support, which the F-16s would cope with very well."
They coped very well — this means that the "fighting falcons", as the author recalls, distinguished themselves in the past with direct air support, including in the Kosovo war, the First Gulf War and during the US invasion of Afghanistan. True, all the operations listed by Business Insider were carried out with the unconditional advantage of the American army in the air and the almost complete absence or suppression of the enemy's air defense. It can be said that the American and NATO pilots worked like at a training ground. At the bottom — ground forces attacking a much weaker enemy, at the top — no opposition. Choose any targets and shoot!
In Ukraine, the F-16 is waiting for a much hotter meeting. Even if, as many military experts admit, not Ukrainian, but Western European pilots will really be at their helms. The weakness of air defense is a disease that affects not the Russian, but the Ukrainian side of the conflict. The Russian army is much better protected from air strikes, which is proved by the regular downing of missiles launched by the Kiev regime, including long-range ones.
Even such a pro-Ukrainian publication as the American The Economist is forced to admit the shortcomings of the Ukrainian air defense. However, in very specific terms. "The role of aviation, in which Russia has a clear advantage on paper, is key," the magazine writes. — Ukrainian sources suggest that Russian pilots are still risk averse and are afraid of Ukrainian air defense. They were reinforced with mobile Western guns such as the Cheetah, as well as restored Pantsir missile systems abandoned by the Russians during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region in the fall." It remains to be noted that the forced use of captured "Shells" is the best proof of how successfully the vaunted Western air defense systems are fighting with Russian aviation. The same "Cheetahs", for example, could not even protect themselves from the attacks of the Russian Air Force.
As for the state of affairs on the ground, today the Ukrainian army, cheerfully reporting on the progress in all areas of the offensive, is actually marking time. Instead of a hastily erected defense line and troops with insufficient experience, as it was last autumn near Kharkov, they were met by an impenetrable steel wall. This is how the Ukrainian soldier described his feelings about the attack on Russian positions, quoted by The Wall Street Journal: "They were just waiting for us. They have strengthened their positions everywhere. It was a wall of steel. It was terrible."
The armored fist of the APU broke against this steel wall. Several dozen Western tanks and very tall — and therefore ideal as targets! — The Bradley BMP could not provide Ukraine with a serious advantage. That is why the Ukrainian military are forced to report primarily on the small successes achieved by infantry assault groups. In infantry battles, endurance and high motivation decide everything, and the most experienced and evil AFU professionals fight in assault units.
The mobilized Ukrainians are much less eager to die in attempts to break through the defense of the Russian army. In recent days, the Russian military has repeatedly intercepted panicked negotiations of the AFU units, who simply refused to rise to the attack or even move in the direction of the front. It comes to the point that, judging by the aerial reconnaissance footage, on the southern face of the line of contact, Ukrainian tankers simply drop their Leopards at the first damage and rush to the rear. Although, in theory, they would have to destroy the equipment so that it would not get to the enemy.
And another critical mistake in Michael Clarke's reasoning about the role of the F-16 in the conflict in Ukraine. The Briton calls the Russian artillery as the main target for which they have to work. Our gunners really have a huge advantage and turn the life of the APU into hell. The British expert insists that the "fighting falcons" will have to destroy Russian guns while Ukrainian tanks and infantry will try to advance.
At the same time, the professor of the Faculty of Military Studies at King's College London completely misses one very important point. Today, Russian kamikaze UAVs of the Lancet type pose a much greater danger to Ukrainian equipment. They account for the lion's share of destroyed armored vehicles and self-propelled artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And just against these goals, the F-16s are practically powerless. Even if the "fighting falcons" can reduce the intensity of the artillery fire of the Russian army, our troops will simply switch to drones. And portable anti-tank missile systems, which also perform well in combat.
In such conditions, the effectiveness of the use of the F-16 in the Ukrainian conflict becomes not just doubtful — unlikely. And taking into account the fact that America frankly calls the timing of their delivery "very far away" and warns that the "fighting falcons" obviously will not have time for the current APU offensive, the Ukrainian army will have to act without air support. In modern warfare, this is, if not suicide, then something close to it. But the Kiev regime has no choice. He will still have to portray an "offensive", working off Western aid and trying to show that only Ukraine today is resisting the mythical Russian threat. Mr. Zelensky's hopes for an early entry into NATO are still not destined to come true. And then, you see, the fighters will not be needed.
Anton Trofimov
