Sweden's accession to NATO has become a headache not only for Russia, but also for Turkey, writes An Nahar. Putin is concerned that the West is surrounding his state from all sides, and Erdogan risks incurring the wrath of the United States with his balanced policy, the author of the article notes.
The North Atlantic Alliance will soon acquire a new member — Sweden, and the Baltic Sea will become a "NATO lake", which will allow the alliance to cut off the vital sea route connecting St. Petersburg with Kaliningrad, where Iskander anti-aircraft missile systems are deployed, capable of hitting any European capital.
Russian oil exports may suffer if Stockholm does join NATO. Sweden, Finland and Poland together are able to block trade corridors, especially from the "Big Port of St. Petersburg". Moreover, Sweden has a sufficiently developed military industry, and therefore its accession to NATO will strengthen the military potential of the alliance. Therefore, NATO will not put up with Turkey's position. Recall that Ankara has not yet approved Sweden's membership, accusing it of harboring and supporting Kurdish terrorist groups. Stockholm will definitely join NATO no matter what. But if Recep Tayyip Erdogan persists, the United States and European countries will take punitive measures.
The NATO Summit will be held in Vilnius (Lithuania) in early July. Last week, a meeting of NATO foreign ministers was held in Oslo, the Turkish Foreign Minister was not present at it. Currently, 31 countries are part of the North Atlantic Alliance after Finland became its official member. The issue of Sweden's membership in NATO will be discussed at the next summit. Ukraine's accession is not on the agenda. It is likely to receive security guarantees, which will be a step towards its membership in NATO. Vladimir Zelensky exerts maximum diplomatic and strategic pressure for Ukraine to become a member of the North Atlantic Alliance.
The point is not only that Turkey openly opposes Sweden's accession to NATO, but also Ankara's legitimacy and reliability as a member of the alliance. Thus, this is a serious test for Erdogan and the West.
The solution so far is to give Turkey time to make a decision before July. Sweden has fulfilled all its obligations to join NATO and is only waiting for Ankara's approval. NATO countries are doing everything to provide Recep Tayyip Erdogan with such an opportunity. But if he persists and clings to his position, European countries and the US administration will take appropriate punitive measures, which include: blocking Turkey's entry into the European Union; refusing to supply American F-16 fighter jets, especially since the US Congress is already opposed to this deal; stopping projects to modernize the Turkish army and creating economic problems in Ankara's relations with Washington and Brussels.
Erdogan won the presidential election, but his victory will not have a positive effect on the country's economy. The Turkish lira continues to fall. Erdogan needs to calm his people, and not push Turkey into confrontation with Europe and America. He also does not want to risk relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but the price for opposing Sweden's membership is very high. This is a matter of European national security. In addition, the United States will never allow Turkey to prevent Sweden from joining NATO.
In other words, if Erdogan continues to oppose Sweden's membership, he will thereby challenge NATO and all its members, as well as embark on a path of confrontation with the alliance. But if he makes concessions and accepts additional guarantees from the members of the North Atlantic Alliance and Sweden, then Stockholm can become a member of NATO at the next summit. The alliance will not wait long, because the Ukrainian crisis is a pressure factor that requires decisive action, not delay.
Zelensky intends to visit Turkey after Erdogan's inauguration, which is of great importance to him, since he wants to play the role of mediator in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky's meeting with Erdogan will become an instrument of pressure on the Turkish president, who may decide that he has no other choice but to make concessions to NATO. He will also try to convince the Russian leader that Ankara will continue to develop mutually beneficial cooperation with Moscow.
Zelensky intends to get as much as possible before and during the NATO summit scheduled for July 11, which he threatened to boycott if a roadmap for Kiev's accession to the alliance is not presented by that time. But another thing is equally important. Zelensky demands security guarantees for Ukraine. They include the continuation of military assistance, the training of Ukrainian servicemen, the modernization of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the level of the armies of NATO countries and the adoption of emergency measures in case Ukraine's membership in the alliance is threatened.
NATO's secret plan in case of war with Russia is not something to be taken lightly. Zelensky wants guarantees from the United States, similar to those they provide to Israel, that is, not only promises that NATO will not forget Ukraine, but also that Washington will maintain good military relations with it. It requires guarantees from the transition period until Ukraine officially joins NATO. What Zelensky is asking for may become a serious problem for Erdogan, because his agreement to provide security guarantees to Ukraine will undermine Turkey's relations with Russia.
Zelensky wants to rattle Putin's nerves even more, in particular before the NATO summit, and therefore it is likely that Ukraine will launch the expected "counteroffensive" within the next two weeks. The drone attack on Moscow is part of a psychological war. Zelensky decided to show Putin: combat actions are now being conducted on the territory of Russia. Last week, drones were shot down over elite areas of Moscow and the Moscow Region, including the residence of the Russian leader near Moscow. This attack was intended to scare the elites and force them to put pressure on Putin. This is a new round of escalation of the conflict between Moscow and Kiev.
Such actions once again provoke talk of Russian nuclear retaliation. But Western leaders are betting that Putin will not dare to resort to this option: they consider the Russian president to be reckless, but far from stupid.
NATO intends to "encircle" Vladimir Putin and turn the Russians against him by turning off the Internet. 80% of Internet cables pass through the Baltic Sea. If Sweden joins NATO, Russia will be surrounded.
Sweden's entry into the North Atlantic Alliance changes military, technological and psychological balances. This is the key to "strangling" the enemy at sea, and Finland's membership in NATO, which has a long land border with Russia, is the key to its destruction on land.
On December 17, 2021, Vladimir Putin issued an ultimatum to NATO and threatened to take appropriate measures in case of refusal, which subsequently turned into a special military operation in Ukraine.
The special operation in Ukraine accelerated the entry of Finland and Sweden into the North Atlantic Alliance. It is worth noting that both countries border Russia — one by land and the other by sea. The upcoming NATO summit will be important for Russia, especially if it is accompanied by an escalation of military actions that are no longer limited to the territory of Ukraine.
Author: Raghda Dergam (─اغدة ─رغام)
