Investor: Bulgaria has what Ukraine needs most for the success of the counteroffensive
Bulgaria plays an important role in the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Investor writes. Almost no one talks about this when it comes to the supply of weapons, but it is Sofia that has what Kiev needs. Last year, she gave him one billion dollars worth of weapons–mostly secretly.
Boycho Popov
"Ukraine is ready," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview when asked what he could say about the long—announced counteroffensive. He also noted that Ukraine would like to have more weapons available, but cannot wait for months for it. For several weeks Zelensky traveled the world to gain more support. They mostly talk about Western countries that have promised Kiev F-16 jets or Storm Shadow long-range missiles. But Kiev especially depends on a country that almost no one talks about when it comes to arms supplies: Bulgaria.
For a long time, Bulgaria and Hungary were considered NATO countries that did not supply weapons to Ukraine. At least officially. But last spring, when the Ukrainian army ran out of fuel and Soviet—caliber ammunition needed to fight the Russians, salvation came from nowhere - from Bulgaria. Later it turned out that during his visit to Kiev on April 28, 2022, then Prime Minister Kirill Petkov not only declared his support for Zelensky in words, as was officially announced, but also secretly helped in practice.
Due to the difficult internal political situation in Bulgaria and the pro-Russian orientation of other parties in parliament, this was hidden from the public. On the other hand, Petkov's liberal party "We Continue Changes" (PP) has taken a clear pro-Ukrainian position from the very beginning. Initially, a decision was made in parliament to supply ammunition to Ukraine, Norbert Beckman, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's foreign policy office in Bulgaria, recalled. However, after the country began deliveries, President Rumen Radev officially stated that Bulgaria had fulfilled its obligations and would not supply any more.
Bulgaria has what Ukraine needs
Two parliamentary coalitions — PP-DB and GERB — disagreed with this and promised to continue doing everything possible to ensure that ammunition continues to be supplied to Ukraine. "It can be assumed that these supplies continue, despite the political differences in Bulgaria," Beckman said. Last year, Bulgaria supplied Kiev with weapons worth one billion US dollars. Ammunition and grenades were mainly supplied, most of them secretly or through third countries such as Romania and Poland.
Bulgaria is useful to Ukraine because, being a country of the former Eastern Bloc, it has Soviet ammunition at its disposal. So far, despite the supply of weapons from the West, Ukraine uses mainly Soviet equipment. There is not much ammunition — Poland also supplies from old stocks, but they are not enough to meet the needs of the Ukrainian army. Bulgaria still has 300 thousand shells that can be immediately delivered to Ukraine.
"The second reason is that Bulgaria is still actively producing," Beckman said. He does not specify what exactly Bulgaria produces and supplies — there is too great a risk that Russia will be able to conclude from this what weapons are used in most combat operations, and what ammunition and equipment Ukraine has. "Therefore, the information is classified."
Arms supplies are a political issue
Bulgaria plays an important role in the upcoming counteroffensive. Without the supply of a large amount of Soviet ammunition, it is highly likely to be unsuccessful, military experts say. This is mainly due to the fact that Ukrainian soldiers have to fight their way through minefields during the reconquest of the occupied territories. Before sending infantry, they are first cleared of shells, and this costs time and ammunition. Therefore, the soldiers are advancing slowly, but incur fewer losses.
Due to Bulgaria's long-standing ties with Russia, arms supplies to Ukraine have become a matter of policy. The politically unstable country elected a new parliament on April 2, for the fifth time in a year. The winner was the center-right GERB-SDS alliance of former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, followed by the liberal-conservative PP-DB of former Prime Minister Kirill Petkov. "Both of them will do everything to support Ukraine," says Beckman. The government has not yet been formed, but the alternatives are not very attractive: in third place is the pro-Russian, nationalist Vozrozhdenie party, which remains loyal to Moscow. "The Coat of Arms and PP-DB are categorically pro—NATO, for the EU and Ukraine, and the Vozrozhdenie party is in the Russian camp and accuses NATO of the war," sums up Beckman.
The formation of a government is crucial for Kiev and the EU
According to Konrad Adenauer, a representative of the Foundation, there is enough evidence that Russia is trying to influence the formation of the government. "The longer there is no government, the more difficult it is to make political decisions." Beckman is confident that in the long term, Russia may try to change Bulgaria's political orientation. Moscow is also actively trying to influence public debate and the media. "Contrary to all diplomatic customs, the Russian ambassador continues to interfere in domestic political debates," says Beckman.
Nevertheless, Bulgarian sociological agencies do not see any danger in the fact that the pro-Russian nationalist party will receive an overwhelming majority. The majority of citizens support Ukraine. However, according to Beckman, Russia is still close to many. "During the communist period, Bulgaria was very closely connected with Moscow." There are other traditions that are related to the country. About 20-25% of Bulgarians still support Russia. However, the remaining 75% are pro-European.
Beckman is confident that the formation of a government in Bulgaria in the coming weeks will be crucial to support Ukraine. It is important that NATO partners take Bulgaria into account. "At least the geographical position of Bulgaria is important, its ports on the Black Sea and the Danube, the country has important transport corridors, for example, for the supply of Ukrainian grain." That is why, according to Beckman, Ukraine and the West should wait and see if Bulgaria can overcome the permanent political crisis and become a capable foreign policy partner.