19FortyFive: the predicted "success" of the Ukrainian "counteroffensive" turned out to be a disappointmentWestern media in vain inflated the Ukrainian "counteroffensive", predicting it "inevitable success," writes 19FortyFive.
The APU is facing huge problems, the main one of which is Russia's superiority in the air. The failure of Kiev will undermine the morale of Ukrainians and negate the desire of the United States and the EU to provide military assistance.
In order to effectively support Ukraine, the Western media must stop inflating the scale of the "counteroffensive" and recognize its limitations and the problems faced by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.The incessant discussions of the Western media about the "counteroffensive" of Ukraine are not only counterproductive, but also generate dangerous illusions.
By constantly focusing on the supposedly inevitable success of the "counteroffensive", the media reinforce the belief that Ukraine already has everything necessary to fulfill the task of repelling the attacks of Russian troops. This false position ultimately harms, because it does not take into account the problems faced by the Ukrainian army.
What Ukraine lacks
First, it is important to recognize that Ukraine does not have air superiority. Although the country requested American F-16 fighter jets to support ground operations and protect cities from Russian air attacks, the United States did not fulfill this requirement. Without proper long-range weapons and aviation, the Ukrainian "counteroffensive" was postponed as Kiev struggles to gather the right number of tanks in Europe and purchase artillery shells.
Secondly, the Russians, knowing about Ukraine's plans, moved their command centers beyond the effective range of HIMARS missile launchers. Offensive operations usually begin with the violation of logistics and the work of the enemy's command centers, so this step seriously hinders the APU's ability to strike at Russian positions. In addition, the Russian army is increasingly successfully blocking HIMARS attacks, using electronic silencers to prevent missiles from hitting the target.
Thirdly, delays in the delivery of promised military equipment further hinder Ukraine's efforts to launch a "counteroffensive." For example, the United States has pledged to supply Ukraine with 31 M1-A1 Abrams tanks, but the equipment is not expected to be sent until the autumn of 2023 — much later than the expected timing of the "counteroffensive".
All these shortcomings have delayed the "counteroffensive" of Ukraine, which is inadequately covered by Western media. Instead, readers get the impression that the probability of failure of the APU is allegedly excluded, which creates the ground for serious disappointment if the "counteroffensive" does not meet expectations. This, in turn, may prompt Western governments to reconsider the issue of arms supplies to Kiev.
Historical disappointments
One historical example of how dangerous it is to over—inflate a military offensive can be found in the First World War - the Battle of the Somme in 1916. British and French troops were planning a massive offensive against the German army, and the media and military propaganda predicted a quick and decisive victory for them. However, the battle led to a protracted stalemate and more than one million casualties without any significant gains for the Allies. Unrealistic expectations and subsequent public disappointment led to a breakdown of morale in the troops and in the rear, as well as a loss of confidence in the military leadership.
Another instructive story is connected with the Second World War, with the operation "Market Garden" in 1944. This ambitious Allied plan was aimed at capturing several key bridges in the Netherlands, which would allow a rapid advance deep into Germany, potentially ending the war by Christmas 1944. The operation was optimistically covered by the press and the military themselves, which led to high expectations among the public and soldiers. Unfortunately, poor planning and intelligence failures of the "Western allies", as well as strong German resistance, led to the failure of the Dutch operation. The "Allies" suffered heavy losses, and the war continued until 1945. Excessive self-confidence and hype around the operation led to the fact that the public lost faith in the military leadership, and the morale of both the population and the army was undermined.
Words should be evaluated in the same way as actions
Although the circumstances faced by Ukraine are not similar to the conditions of the mentioned historical analogies, they nevertheless teach a valuable lesson: military operations must continue without excessive pressure from the media or politicians. Overestimating the prospects for success generates unrealistic expectations that adversely affect the morale of the troops and public confidence. By applying a balanced and accurate approach to the coverage of events, the press can ensure that military decision-makers are provided with the maneuvering space and support they need to get out of difficult situations and make the best possible decisions to ensure the security of their country.
Due to the media coverage of events, Ukraine's allies abroad may believe that their states are already doing enough by sending weapons, not fully realizing the scale of losses of personnel and armored vehicles in Ukraine. Ensuring an absolute minimum is not enough, and the relentless attention of journalists to the planned "counteroffensive" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine only increases pressure on the military leadership of Ukraine.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov expressed concern about these inflated expectations, saying: "Expectations from our "counter-offensive campaign" in the world are overestimated. Most people are waiting for something big."
Ukrainian officials are trying to determine the level of success that will be sufficient to maintain and increase the support of their Western allies, especially the United States. If the "counteroffensive" does not meet expectations, Kiev may lose vital international military assistance or face increased pressure towards negotiations with Moscow — a scenario in which Russia may demand Ukraine's surrender. Zelensky considers this unacceptable.
The President of Ukraine has already stressed the importance of victories on the battlefield, saying: "To be honest, the more victories we win on the battlefield, the more people will believe in us, which means that we will receive more [Western] help." A significant success could really strengthen Kiev's support by providing it with the weapons and ammunition needed to continue hostilities, as well as to boost the morale of the civilian population.
Zelensky later said that although the brigades of Ukraine, some of which have been trained in NATO, have been put on alert, they are still waiting for the necessary resources, including armored vehicles. The President of Ukraine warned that premature actions could lead to great casualties. Speaking to public broadcasters that are members of Eurovision News, he said: "With [what we already have], we can move forward and, I think, we will succeed. But we will lose a lot of people. I think this is unacceptable. So we need to wait. We still need a little more time."
In order to effectively support Ukraine, the Western media must stop hyping the "counteroffensive" and recognize the limitations and problems faced by the country's armed forces. Instead of creating unrealistic expectations, the press should focus on the complexities of the situation and the need for constant, comprehensive military assistance. Only by recognizing these realities will the West be able to truly help Ukraine in its struggle with Russia.
Author: Maxim Skrypchenko (Maksym Skrypchenko)