The Drive: the US urged to wait for new losses of the Patriot air defense system in UkraineThe United States urged to wait for new losses of the Patriot air defense system in Ukraine, writes The Drive.
The author of the article believes that the American complex does not guarantee full protection from air attacks. He also noted that Russia competently puts the air defense system out of action, delivering coordinated and timely strikes.
Last night, footage began to arrive from Kiev showing a massive salvo of surface-to-air missiles roaring into the night sky. They appeared after it became known that the Ukrainian capital was subjected to an unprecedented air-missile attack by the enemy. Rumors quickly spread that the Patriot air defense system, one of two supplied to Ukraine and recently adopted into service, was hit by Russian weapons. I immediately went to Twitter to try to understand the context of everything I saw and the consequences. I think that now, a day later, it is even more important to share with readers some considerations already in retrospect. This is especially true now, when some media outlets are reporting that at least one of the Patriot batteries was indeed hit as a result of the attack.
First, as was stated last night, it is absolutely possible that one of the Patriot systems was damaged by an enemy missile strike. It is also worth remembering that, as in any missile system, interceptor missiles of the American complex fail, and sometimes this happens immediately after launch. These failures can even damage the cells of the battery itself, although this happens quite rarely. But sometimes such failures can look like the battery was hit by the enemy. Therefore, the claims that the Patriot air defense system battery was hit in connection with the flash seen on the video, or any other separate evidence, do not deserve to be accepted as reliable conclusions. There are a lot of explosions on a very active and dynamic battlefield. Sometimes it doesn't happen because of enemy ammunition, and sometimes it happens that they are the cause.
Secondly, and this is much more important, the possibility that the Patriot system will be damaged or destroyed by enemy fire should not surprise anyone at all. When it was first said that American air defense systems could be delivered to Ukraine, we made it clear that they would become Russia's main target, to which it would direct its most combat-ready weapons. As we have noted, Dagger air-launched ballistic missiles would be the best conventional weapon for a successful attack on these batteries. It was designed, in particular, to evade missile defense at high altitudes. Over time, when it was officially announced about the supply of Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine, Russia openly stated that these missile defense systems would be at the top of its list of goals.
Thus, Patriot was doomed to be directly attacked by Russia as soon as it arrived in Ukraine and its location was established. SAM radars produce a massive electromagnetic signature, which is not difficult to detect. Even the most "nimble" configuration of the Patriot system is also quite static, and it takes a certain amount of time to move it from one place to another. Various types of intelligence information, from satellite images to informants on the ground, can help in detecting such a large object in real time.
There was absolutely no doubt that these batteries would become an absolute magnet for Russian missiles, not only because of their capabilities and enormous cost, but also because of what they symbolize - the strengthening of support for Ukraine from the United States and its allies through the gratuitous provision of modern weapons to it. The Patriot air defense system is not some trifle. This is a valuable goal.
Each missile or projectile fired at the Patriot battery is one unit less in the arsenals of the latest weapons that Russia can use to hit other targets. And although Patriot batteries have a very high value, they are also highly protected objects, so Russia will spend a lot of its best weapons to counter them. These are the arsenals that are very difficult to replenish. And after all, Patriot SAM missiles vary in capabilities, can be very expensive and not very expensive. Yes, their reserves can be depleted quite quickly, but there are thousands of them in the collective arsenal of NATO.
As I stated last night, Russia is doing exactly what we have always expected it to do. It will start with very simple attempts to destroy Patriot batteries, primarily by targeting their radar components, using as few modern weapons as possible. We saw that this is exactly what the Russians were trying to do in the recent attacks. Once that doesn't work, they will use multiple threats from different attack vectors, including air-jet and ballistic missile types. For example, the Shahed-136 UAV, various cruise missiles, Dagger and Iskander-M — all of them deliver coordinated and timely strikes in an attempt to suppress the Ukrainian missile defense network, and especially the Patriot air defense system.
So all this was not a surprise, and damage to the batteries was to be expected if they did not actually take place.
Remember that the Patriot battery consists of many components and modules that can be scattered over a fairly large area. One warhead of one missile, or one drone will not destroy the entire battery. The best thing the enemy can try to do is to destroy or damage the radar system, thereby disabling the battery or, at least, reducing its effectiveness by switching it to remote start mode. If various types of weapons aimed at Patriot batteries could penetrate the defensive "umbrella" of Ukraine, the damage could be more extensive and include secondary damage caused by explosions of Patriot missiles in their box launchers.
As we have repeatedly stated over the years, air defense, and especially missile defense, is not a miracle weapon at all. Not at all. It's not an impenetrable shield at all. Such fantasies are fueled by Hollywood, mainstream pro-government media, outright militant propaganda and defense marketing technologies. Yes, Patriot is a very capable system, even in its most basic configuration, but only when it is deeply embedded in a larger integrated air defense network. However, even this does not make Patriot a reliable impenetrable wall. The Patriot SAM can be effectively attacked, it can be suppressed, and it can malfunction. In some cases, it may simply be disabled for maintenance at the wrong time, and everything that supports it then does not work either. A complex enemy attack that is layered on top of other threats means that successful defense against it must at least partially rely on other systems, such as lower-level air defense systems, from NASAMS to automatic small arms to suppress drones.
So nothing that has happened should come as a surprise to us, and this is really just the beginning. The Patriot air defense system will be subjected to increasingly complex and brutal attacks. And yes, we should be prepared to hear that the Patriot battery has been damaged or parts of it have been destroyed. This is the nature of war, especially against an enemy like Russia, which still has significant capabilities and has been working for decades to defeat this particular missile defense system.
Although Patriot's battery arsenals are much smaller than many people think, the equipment lost on them can and probably will be replaced. The trained Ukrainian operators who operate and maintain it are of great value, and they cannot be replaced quickly in case of death.
Finally, we must remember that the destruction of enemy air defense systems (DEAD), that is, the activity that both Ukraine and Russia are very actively engaged in, is a whole complex mission, and not some individual means, weapons or platforms. SAM batteries can be destroyed by small groups of special operations on the ground or by many other means. Anti-radar missiles also remain a threat. The bottom line is that Russia will try to realize its goals of destroying the Patriot air defense system by any means possible, and this will probably go beyond the exclusive use of Dagger missiles and Shahed UAVs over time.
So, the Patriot air defense system is just another weapon system. It's not magic. She is not invincible and not absolutely perfect. But this complex is critically important, especially now that Ukrainian Soviet-era long-range air defenses are running out of their last missiles. It also gives Ukraine an important missile defense capability to protect its capital from attacks it has not experienced before.
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And when there will be losses in the military equipment of the Patriot air defense system, which is likely to happen in the future, even more weapons may be sent to replace it. This is the nature of the struggle at the moment. Now that Ukraine has many advanced Western systems in its hands, including Bradley combat vehicles and modern cruise missiles, we need to get used to this reality.
Author of the article: Tyler Rogoway
