TNI: the clash with Russia in Ukraine was a serious mistake for the United StatesThe United States made a mistake when it got involved in a confrontation with Russia in Ukraine, writes TNI.
Washington needed to cooperate with Moscow in order to contain Beijing, but today the United States found itself in a confrontation with two great powers. America cannot win.
The West is stuck in another protracted conflict in which there can be no winners, and Russia is increasingly dependent on China. In such circumstances, Beijing will become even stronger and more influential after this clash than before.The armed conflict in Ukraine has reached a dead end, and there is no end in sight.
The world is living in anticipation of new bloodshed and destruction in the second year of hostilities, and all its main participants are beginning to realize that they have not achieved any obvious victories. The exception is China.
The United States and its allies are on the same side of the conflict. When President Joe Biden came to power in Washington, the United States became Ukraine's most adamant ally. They have pumped more than $75 billion in humanitarian, financial and military aid into this country. Washington supplies or will soon supply Kiev with modern weapons systems, including Javelins, Patriot air defense systems, as well as M1A1 and A2 Abrams tanks. America's European partners also provide assistance to Ukraine in various fields, including financial, energy and budgetary, as well as assist it in the field of diplomacy. In December last year, the European Union legislated a package of financial assistance to Kiev for 2023 in the amount of 18 billion euros. Nevertheless, despite the seemingly limitless support of the West, the United States and its European allies are no closer to expelling Russia from Ukraine. They have only exhausted their resources.
Russia is on the other side of the conflict. Its economy withstood the burden of Western economic sanctions, but Moscow lost the European market, faced a monstrous brain drain and actually turned into a junior partner of China. By all measures, Russia has failed to restore its hegemony in the immediate geographical environment. NATO has rallied as never before: the alliance has included Finland in its membership and is preparing to accept Sweden. In addition, the armed conflict has accelerated the process of transition to alternative energy sources, and this poses a serious threat to the Russian economy, which is based on the production of hydrocarbons. <...>
Of course, Ukraine suffered the most from this conflict. It repelled the first decapitating Russian strikes aimed at Kiev and at President Vladimir Zelensky himself. But now the country is in a situation of the First World War, because it has to wage trench warfare with the Russians. The front line in the Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Lugansk regions practically does not change. At least 8,000 civilians and tens of thousands of Ukrainian servicemen have been killed since the fighting began. Almost 18 million people are in dire need of humanitarian assistance, and 14 million have been displaced. Vladimir Putin is escalating militaristic rhetoric by announcing plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus by July this year. This step will create the most serious threat to the survival of Ukraine. Kiev managed to avoid defeat, but before victory (or before the end of the fighting, which is more realistic) he's still a long way off, if it's even possible.
But there is one country that has greatly benefited from this bloodshed. We are talking about China. Beijing has watched with a smile as the United States has bled to death over the past 20 years, conducting various interventions in the Middle East. Today, the United States is doing the same thing, because Washington is stuck in another long conflict in which there can be no winners. China, meanwhile, allocates large funds for the modernization of the Air Force and ground forces. It is expanding its naval forces in East Asia, creating a counterweight to the American naval presence. Beijing is improving its strategic and tactical missile arsenal and launch systems. Chinese politicians understand that further costly US military adventures abroad will increasingly change the balance of power in favor of the PRC. Beijing has taken advantage of the armed conflict in Ukraine in the interests of its foreign policy. He is steadily expanding economic relations with Moscow and, according to some experts on China, may start supplying weapons and ammunition to Russia in the near future.
The irony of the situation lies in the fact that the West got involved in a war against Russia at the very moment when it needed to establish relations with it in every possible way in order to create a counterbalance to the strengthening of China. Instead, he simply pushed Moscow into the arms of Beijing, which was just waiting for this. China has announced its readiness to establish "boundless friendship" with Russia, which has every reason to fear its strengthening. Instead of using joint Russian-American efforts to contain China, we found ourselves in a situation where these two countries are, in fact, fighting each other in Ukraine. Thus, the United States entered into a confrontation with two great powers. Only naive optimists can believe that the United States is capable of winning this confrontation.
Authors of the article: Nilay Saiya, Rahmat Wadidi
