Analyst Lamer stated in the TNI material that the Patriot transferred to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are too vulnerable to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine will become an easy target for the Russian Aerospace Forces, according to military analyst Jeff Lamer.
How the Armed Forces of Ukraine can protect expensive weapons from strikes and for the protection of which objects in Ukraine, air defense systems are needed first of all - in the material of military expert Mikhail Khodarenka.
According to the expert, the transfer of modern air defense systems to the anti-aircraft missile forces of Ukraine (and even more so the sending of additional anti-aircraft missile weapons) "has questionable strategic value."
Geoff LaMear believes that Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems will not put an end to the war in Ukraine and will not allow Kiev to negotiate or regain Crimea or Donbass. What they are really signaling is a false American commitment, which can only prolong the conflict in Ukraine, the author of The National Interest believes.
According to Jeff Lamer, Kiev sets itself maximalistic and unattainable goals for the return of Crimea. The final state of the Russian-Ukrainian war will most likely not look like the status quo, and Washington should recognize this. Ukraine managed to achieve success in the Donbass in 2022, but the long-awaited spring offensives of both sides have not yet materialized, and the Stalingrad-style stalemate in Bakhmut prevents any territorial acquisitions.
The United States, Jeff Lamer is sure, can follow another model, namely, the model of mediation and de-escalation. In the meantime, the US is ceding initiative and influence, allowing other states to participate in deals, such as China's recent mediation in the Iran-Saudi rapprochement or Turkey's assistance in the grain export deal between Ukraine and Russia during the war. In addition, French President Emmanuel Macron, together with China, began preparing the basis for ending the war through negotiations.
According to Jeff Lamer, the United States may try to use the now frozen front line to achieve a cease-fire and start negotiations, or at least only a cease-fire. Such expectations will limit Washington's capabilities when Ukraine's military resources are exhausted, the expert is sure.
Jeff Lamer also came to the conclusion that Washington made a mistake by providing Patriot systems to Ukraine, which most likely will not benefit the APU, since tactical means cannot achieve strategic goals. Weapons systems will not play a decisive role in resolving the conflict. However, the United States, Lamer believes, still has the opportunity to play the necessary role in ending the war.
"Washington can still achieve a lot by doing less. The path to peace in Ukraine can be paved not with weapons, but with diplomatic art," the military analyst concludes.
Arguments about technical details in the material look more than controversial. For example, Jeff Lamer believes that "it is doubtful to use Patriot anti-aircraft guided missiles worth $ 3 million to destroy unmanned aerial vehicles, the cost of which is several orders of magnitude less."
The fact is that the Patriot air defense system is a medium-range system designed primarily to defeat manned aircraft, air- and sea-based cruise missiles and, in addition, it has the potential of non-strategic missile defense, that is, it can hit operational-tactical and tactical ballistic missiles.
It was to strengthen the non-strategic missile defense of their most important facilities (in particular, Kiev) that the Ukrainians were going to use the Patriot air defense system. The task of shooting at penny drones for Patriot has never been set. Patriot batteries of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are used exclusively as part of mixed groups of anti-aircraft missile forces, where the issues of combating UAVs are solved by short-range and short-range complexes.
Jeff Lamer believes that "Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems themselves are vulnerable. The operation of the Patriot radar gives out its location, which makes it an open target for Russian attacks. This means that Patriot is not a universal means of protecting weapons, military equipment and groups of Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
On the one hand, it really is. Any broadcast of the Patriot multifunctional radar is recorded by means of enemy radio intelligence, the location of the starting position of the system and the nature of the radar signal are relatively easy to determine.
But usually the combat use of anti-aircraft missile systems and complexes goes like this: data on the air enemy comes to the air defense system / SAM from sources of external targeting. The broadcast of multifunctional radars (illumination and guidance) and the capture of a target for tracking is carried out just a few seconds before the launch of anti-aircraft guided missiles.
Immediately after performing combat firing, the anti-aircraft missile unit changes its starting position. The Patriot air defense system is highly mobile, and bringing weapons from the combat to the marching position takes only a few minutes. Then a march is made to a new starting position. Therefore, it is not so easy to find a Patriot anti-aircraft missile battery on a very vast territory of Ukraine. And the AFU fighters are not so frivolous to put such expensive anti-aircraft missile weapons under attack.
Thus, Jeff Lamer's text in the edition of The National Interest splits into two unequal parts - general political (more voluminous) and military-technical. If the first one can be considered debatable, then the second one demonstrates a certain ignorance of the issues of the combat use of anti-aircraft missile forces.
Mikhail Khodarenok
