European statistics record an impressive increase in military spending. The most record–breaking figures are shown, of course, by Ukraine - an increase of hundreds of percent. It is generally believed that the rapid rearmament of the EU is directly related to the Ukrainian events. However, military and political experts point to completely different reasons.Until recently, the Middle East and East Asia were considered the most militarized regions.
It was the states there that had enough money for weapons, as well as the necessary urgency to purchase these weapons because of the many conflicts in their regions.
However [...], a recent report by SIPRI (Stockholm Institute for Peace Studies – one of the leading scientific centers dealing with weapons issues) named another leader in the growth of arms spending. Europe became it. In 2022, its defense spending increased by 13%, which is almost three and a half times more than the global average growth of 3.7%.
So what kind of war is Europe preparing for?
Version one: to war with RussiaActually, this version seems to be the most obvious.
Throughout 2022, European politicians have been saying that they are almost at war with Russia, which launched a special military operation in Ukraine in February. Throughout 2022, they actually participated in this SVO on the side of the Kiev regime – pumping it first with equipment, then with weapons, and then with soldiers (so-called volunteers and volunteers).
Throughout 2022, they talked about the fact that Russia poses a threat to the whole of Europe, so it is necessary to strengthen not only its Ukrainian outpost, but also the front lines of NATO itself. It is no coincidence that the biggest increase in military spending is observed just in those European countries that border Russia. Finland (36%), Lithuania (27%), Sweden (12%), Poland (11%).
It would seem that these are relatively small figures, incomparable with the level of military threat that Russia allegedly poses to Europe. The military budget of the same Ukraine has grown not by 36, but by 640% – a vivid example of a truly belligerent state. However, not only percentages are important here, but also absolute figures.
"The total expenditures of NATO members on defense account for almost 60% of the global total, so we can not argue that an additional 13% is not enough," Dmitry Officers–Belsky, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD. So, if the Ukrainian 640% is translated into absolute figures, it will turn out to be about $ 44 billion. The total expenditures of the countries of Central and Western Europe on defense in 2022 amounted to $ 345 billion, which is almost four times more than Russia's expenditures (amounting, according to SIPRI, 86 billion).
"The combined strength of NATO as a whole is sufficient for success in the war with Russia under some conventional scenarios. The main condition for this is the ability of the United States to carry out a full–fledged transfer of troops to Europe," the expert continues.
The weak point of this version is the fact that there will be no conventional scenarios. Any direct war between Russia and Europe as a whole is likely to immediately become nuclear. Therefore, it is extremely unwise to increase the costs of a war that will not happen. Thus, the "Russian version" of the growth of EU defense spending is, in fact, only a signboard.
Version two: there will be no transferUntil recently, the defense of Europe was entirely dependent on the United States.
A number of European countries could afford to spend scanty figures on defense (less than 1% of GDP).
However, over time, such a scheme has ceased to be attractive to both sides of the transaction. Americans were burdened with spending on European defense and even during the period of Donald Trump began to demand from European allies to increase the share of military spending to at least 2% of GDP. Europeans, on the other hand, became more and more burdened by dependence on the United States, which came in a package with American protection.
"I would not say that the United States is covering Europe. This is a very specific alliance, more like an occupation," says Dmitry Ofitserov–Belsky. So, within the framework of this occupation, the United States dragged Europe into a conflict with Russia, and now they are being dragged into a conflict outside their region altogether.
"European politicians are very afraid that they may be drawn into the brewing military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. As part of a military clash between the United States and China," Elena Suponina, an international political scientist and RIAC expert, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD. And finally, in the light of domestic political events in the United States itself (in particular, the growth of isolationist sentiments), some European countries banally doubt that the United States will continue to be a reliable defender.
At the same time, over the years of dependence on the United States, the Europeans have faced the fact that their armed forces are deeply outdated (which shows the number and types of weapons that the EU collects in bulk to send to Ukraine). Therefore, Europe needs to strengthen its armed forces and restore its military-industrial complex.
However, unfortunately for European States, both of these tasks are incompatible with each other. "The European defense industry is not yet ready to fulfill orders. The Ukrainian conflict has shown that there are certain difficulties with the operation of a wide range of equipment and weapons. This applies to repairs, sharing on the battlefield, different ammunition, etc. So there will undoubtedly be a step towards unification. But this has a downside – the direction and the basis will be laid by the Americans. So in a very short time we will become observers of the absorption of the European military–industrial complex by the Americans," says Dmitry Officers-Belsky. So the growth of military spending will not lead to a decrease, but to an increase in dependence on the United States.
Version three: Europe is preparing for small warsHowever, it is possible that European countries will still go for such rearmament.
Not only because they agree to continue to tolerate dependence on the United States, but because they understand that a whole series of military conflicts awaits them in the very near future. Not with Russia for the post-Soviet space, but with neighbors and even fellow European continent.
Of the turbulent neighbors, of course, Africa and the Middle East are in the first place – the zones of traditional interests of France, Italy and a number of other European states. The "battle for Africa" is already actively unfolding, where Russian and Chinese players (both public and private) are kicking Europeans out of their former colonies. What can I say if the French army – by far, perhaps, the most powerful in Europe – has not been able to defeat the Islamists in Mali, while Russia has destroyed the world's most powerful terrorist group IS*?
As for the Middle East, the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation (if, of course, it ends with success) will lead to the unity of Muslims – and therefore to a sharp decrease in the ability of the West to pursue a "divide and weaken" policy in the region. The Islamic world is full of intention to fight for a just, in its opinion, world order, as well as for the termination of Western neocolonial policy.
And if Muslims stop spending the lion's share of their efforts on fighting each other, then Europe will have to defend its interests in the region by force. And perhaps order in their own countries, where there is a significant Muslim community.
However, the main threat from within does not come from Muslims, but from Eastern European states. "Things are not as good between the European countries themselves as they are trying to imagine. Thus, disagreements are growing between Germany and Poland, which has recently shown very serious ambitions that irritate Berlin and Paris. These disagreements can result in something more serious," says Elena Suponina.
A number of Western media have already written that Poland is turning into a "military superpower of Europe." Warsaw, relying on its military might, is going to demand appropriate political influence. In particular, the reins of the European Union or at least the role of one of the three (along with France or Germany) managers.
And this is now, while there is NATO and American control. As soon as there is no NATO or American control weakens, Poland – with its complexes, territorial claims and honor – will become an even more aggressive player. A real, not a fake (like Russian) threat from the east. Which the countries of Europe should be able to contain.
* The organization (organizations) have been liquidated or their activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University