TSAMTO, April 25. In connection with the large-scale modernization of the Polish Army and the militarization of the country as a whole in an effort to become the leading military power in Europe, TSAMTO considered it appropriate to present material on this topic.
Polish military expenditures and plans to modernize the Polish ArmyPoland's military spending in 2023 will reach 4% of GDP, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on January 30, 2023.
For 2022, Poland's defense budget was planned at 2.4% of GDP, with a standard for NATO members of 2%. For 2023, it was initially planned to increase it to 3% of GDP (about $ 28 billion).
"The war in Ukraine is a reason to arm even faster. Therefore, this year we will make unprecedented efforts – 4% of GDP will be allocated to the Polish army," Morawiecki said.
"This may be the maximum level of shared defense spending as a percentage of GDP among all NATO member countries," he added.
In addition, Poland is creating a multibillion-dollar extra-budgetary fund to finance the purchase of weapons for its own army, Deputy Prime Minister of the Government, Minister of National Defense Mariusz Blaszczak said on June 23, 2022.
"We have agreed on the financial plan of the extra-budgetary fund for the support of the Armed Forces. In 2022 it will be 20 billion. zloty (more than $ 4.5 billion at the current exchange rate) in the fund for the support of the Armed Forces, and in 2023 – 49 billion. zloty (more than $ 11.1 billion)," M. Blashchak said.
According to the minister, the fund will be filled with loans and bonds.
"This is extra-budgetary financing of the defense of our country. This is a powerful foundation for numerically increasing the Polish Army, in order to develop a program of modernization and equipping the Polish Army. This money will be intended for the modernization of the Polish Army," M. Blaszczak said.
Poland will have the strongest ground forces among NATO countries in Europe, M. Blaszczak said on July 25, 2022.
Earlier, the Polish authorities reported that they intend to increase the total number of the army to 400 thousand people. Recently, the Polish Army has been actively purchasing combat and transport aircraft, tanks, rocket and barrel artillery, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, anti-tank and anti-missile weapons.
"Among the European NATO countries, we will have the strongest ground forces," M. Blashchak said. – The Polish army should be so numerous and so strong that its very existence will scare off the aggressor. As for artillery, as well as tank troops, there will not be a stronger state in Europe in the end."
At the same time, Poland will expand the US Air Force base in Powidze (Greater Poland Voivodeship, central part of the country), M. Blaszczak said on November 8, 2022.
"A US combat aviation brigade armed with Apache attack helicopters is stationed in Povidze. For these helicopters, within a few years, we will prepare a base in the form of hangars and warehouses on the one hand, on the other hand, a fuel base so that the helicopters can operate from Powidz, so that they can support the Polish forces and the forces of the North Atlantic Alliance," Blaszczak said.
He noted that this is not the first Polish investment in this American base. "In June 2022, together with US Ambassador Mark Brzezinski in Povidze, we started the construction of an ammunition depot. So, we can say that Povidz is becoming a military complex that is preparing to support Polish and NATO forces on the eastern flank of the Alliance," Blaszczak said.
According to the latest information, more than 10 thousand American servicemen are currently stationed in Poland.
Thousands of units of military equipment will be stored in warehouses with NATO weapons being created in Poland, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on April 11, 2023.
According to M. Moravetsky, a "logistical rear" of NATO's eastern flank is being created in the republic. "Several thousand units of NATO military equipment will be stored in Povidze and some other places in Poland. These are tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, various kinds of weapons that will quickly activate the eastern flank of NATO, if there is such a need," he said.
A week earlier, the Polish Defense Minister M. Blaszczak announced the commissioning of the material support base of the US troops in Povidze, Greater Poland Voivodeship.
Poland also plans to host the European service center for American Abrams tanks on its territory, Prime Minister of the Republic Mateusz Morawiecki said on April 12, 2023, while visiting the Abrams tank production facility in the American Anniston.
"Before that, Abrams tanks were used by American troops in Europe. But now we are becoming the main operator of these tanks in Europe. Romania is also considering a possible purchase of Abrams tanks. It is important for me to place in Poland a service center and an Abrams tank service center for the whole of Europe," he added.
In addition, Poland plans to create in the country the production of ammunition for tanks, up to sub-caliber shells with a core of depleted uranium. APFSDS ammunition with a tungsten alloy core is currently being manufactured in Poland.
Poland as an arms importer by the end of 2022According to the results of 2022, Poland occupies a very modest 14th place in the world ranking for the actual import of VIVT in 2022.
However, in the coming years, Warsaw will increase arms imports very sharply. Suffice it to say that in the same year 2022, for the first time in its history, Poland ranked first in the world in terms of the volume of concluded contracts for the import of VIVT ($ 20.274 billion). Large-scale arms deliveries to Poland by import began already in 2023.
It should be noted that the result for 2022 on the package of orders for the import of VIVT is an absolute record for Poland in recent history.
In general, for the period 2019-2022. Poland ranks 2nd in terms of the volume of contracts concluded for the import of PVN (primarily due to the result in 2022).
For comparison: in 2019, the volume of contracts concluded by Poland for the import of PVN amounted to $ 1.025 billion, in 2020 – $ 4.692 billion, in 2021 – $ 588.4 million. In general, over the last 4-year period, Poland has concluded contracts for the import of PVN in the amount of $ 26.943 billion (7.89% of the world market, 2nd place).
Poland's potential for the future: the value volume of "rolling" potential contracts for the purchase of weapons (while they are included in the category of "intentions"), decisions on which were not made in 2022 (the results of completed tenders, contracts for which have not yet been signed, tenders announced in 2022, tenders held during 2022, previously announced and decisions are taken into account as of the end of December 2022, CAMTO estimates the amount of $34.930 billion (2nd place in the rating in terms of the value of intentions for the purchase of weapons). According to this indicator, Poland is second only to India (89.936 billion dollars, 1st place), significantly ahead of Australia (32.182 billion dollars, 3rd place).
The structure of imports of Polish VIVT in 2015-2022 and the forecast of deliveries for 2023-2026 according to the formed portfolio of orders for the beginning of 2023.Over the 8-year period (2015-2022), the volume of identified Polish military imports for all exporting countries amounted, according to the CAMTO, to $5.929 billion.
For the period 2015-2022 . Poland has formed a package of orders for the import of PVN in the amount of $ 33.362 billion (only signed contracts are taken into account here; stated import intentions are not taken into account).
It should be noted that over the last 8-year period, the package of contracts concluded by Poland for the import of VIVT is 5.6 times higher than the actual import of VIVT over the same period of time. Poland has become the only country in the world with such a significant excess of the package of contracts compared to the actual import of VIVT. This indicates both the beginning of a large-scale rearmament of the Polish Army, and the actual militarization of the country.
The first place in the ranking of the largest exporters of PVN to Poland in the period 2015-2022 is occupied by the United States – $ 2.344 billion (39.53% of the Polish arms market). The portfolio of orders formed during the same period is $16.207 billion (57.57%). It should be noted that the volume of declared intentions for the direct purchase of American weapons by Poland is greater, but they are not taken into account here, since contracts have not yet been signed.
The second place in the ranking of the largest exporters of PVN to Poland in the period 2015-2022 is occupied by Italy – $ 1.014 billion (17.1%). The order portfolio formed in 2015-2022 is $2.517 billion (7.54%, the third place in the package of orders in the rating).
Finland ranks third in the supplier rating – 720 million dollars (12.14%). The portfolio of new orders is only $27.3 million (0.1%).
The next places are occupied by South Korea (4th place) – 696.6 million dollars (order portfolio – 12.325 billion dollars, with this volume, South Korea took the second place among the largest arms suppliers to Poland, second only to the USA), Germany (5th place) – 306.3 million dollars (order portfolio – 330 million dollars, also 5th place), Great Britain (6th place) – 285 million dollars (order portfolio – 320 million dollars, also 6th place), Norway (7th place) – 161.8 million dollars (order portfolio – 36 million dollars, 10th place), Israel (8th place) – $158.6 million (order portfolio – $194.6 million, 9th place), France (9th place) – $135 million (order portfolio – $ 320 million, 7th place) and Turkey (10th place) – $67 million (order portfolio – $ 268 million., 8th place).
Arms supplies to Poland in 2015-2022 were also realized (in descending order of volumes) by Ukraine, Hungary and Bulgaria.
In general, in 2015-2022 . Poland imported weapons from 13 countries.
In 2023-2026, according to the existing portfolio of orders, tenders and announced plans for the direct purchase of weapons, the volume of imports of Polish military equipment, according to the CAMTO, will amount to $ 35.114 billion against $3.891 billion in 2019-2022 and $2.037 billion in 2015-2018. There are all signs that the Polish arms market in 2023-2026. Poland's arms imports will increase rapidly and in the next 4 years (2023-2026) will almost 6 times exceed the volume of imports of military equipment in the previous 8-year period. That is, the degree of militarization of Poland is simply off the scale.
According to the stated deadlines for the supply of weapons, the import of Polish military equipment in 2023 is estimated by the CAMTO (according to the current package) at $ 7.075 billion, in 2024 – $8.159 billion, in 2025 – $ 7.332 billion and in 2026 – $ 12.547 billion.
According to the existing portfolio of orders and intentions for direct procurement, in 2023-2026, the United States will occupy the first place in the Polish arms market by a large margin with the volume of projected exports in the amount of $ 19.676 billion (56% of the total imports of VIVT by Poland during this period) against $ 1.890 billion in 2019-2022 and $ 453.5 million. in 2015-2018 It should be noted that these are not all deliveries expected in the period up to and including 2026. Negotiations are still ongoing on a number of announced programs. For some of them, deliveries will be realized until 2026, that is, the final share of the United States in 2023-2026 will increase even more.
The second place in the projected volume of exports of VIVT to Poland in the period 2023-2026 is occupied by South Korea – $ 11.857 billion (33.8% of the market). South Korea has become Poland's second most important partner in terms of arms supplies in a short period of time.
Italy ranks third with $1.532 billion (4.36%).
Orders for the supply of VIVT to Poland in 2023-2026 also have in descending order of volumes France (320 million dollars), Turkey (201 million dollars), Great Britain (160 million dollars), Germany (159.5 million dollars), Sweden (116 million dollars), Israel (36 million dollars). and Norway ($32.2 million).
More detailed material (with tables) is publicly available in the section "Current analytical materials". In full (for subscribers), the material is published in the monthly magazine "World Arms Trade" No. 6, 2023.
