Will South Korea join the coalition of arms suppliers to Ukraine The President of the Republic of Korea, Yun Seok-yel, in an interview with Reuters published this Wednesday, did not rule out that Seoul may start supplying weapons to Ukraine if there is a serious danger to the civilian population or if the laws of war are grossly "violated."
The situation was dealt with by the military observer of the newspaper.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
"There are no provisions in our legislation prohibiting the supply of weapons to warring countries abroad. And there are no provisions in the instructions of the Foreign Ministry that prohibit the provision of military assistance to third countries in a difficult situation," said a senior representative of the administration of the leader of the Republic of Korea.
The question arises - what kind, in what volumes and in what time frame can the Republic of Korea provide military assistance to Ukraine?
To begin with, recall that Seoul has one of the largest defense budgets (10th place), $45.83 billion for 2023, and is the seventh military force in the world in terms of combat and operational capabilities. For example, the Republic of Korea Air Force ranks 5th in the world in terms of the number of combat aircraft and helicopters.
Over the past 20 years, the Republic of Korea has created powerful and modern armed forces that are able to successfully fight any potential enemy. By almost all indicators, the army and Navy of the Republic of Kazakhstan are among the ten strongest armed Forces in the world today, especially taking into account the achieved level of combat and operational training.
The defense industrial complex of the Republic of Korea today produces a full range of modern and promising models of weapons and military equipment with very high tactical and technical characteristics.
These include Hyunmu ballistic and cruise missiles, K2 main battle tanks, K21 infantry fighting vehicles, K9 self-propelled artillery installations, T-50 combat training jets and warships of various classes, which are in very high demand on the global arms market.
Currently, the military industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan is working on the implementation of five promising projects, including the second phase of the development of the next-generation fighter KF-21 Borame, the second phase of the development of the KM-SAM medium-range anti-aircraft missile system, the development of the KTSSM tactical surface-to-surface missile, the adaptation of the American long-range anti-aircraft missile SM-6, the start of construction of the second batch of the Kwangetho-class destroyers.
As for the capabilities of the Republic of Korea to export arms, military and special equipment (VVST), then, as noted in the Russian expert community, Seoul's ability to carry out very fast deliveries of VVST made the Republic of Korea an almost ideal special exporter.
In addition, it should be recalled that the Republic of Korea has been recognized as the fastest growing arms exporter over the past five years. Among the countries of the Indo-Pacific region of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Seoul is currently second only to Beijing in terms of supplies of weapons, military and special equipment to the world market.
In addition, the situation in the Eastern European arms market is very favorable for the Republic of Kazakhstan, to say the least. The countries of the former socialist camp currently continue to transfer Soviet-made weapons and military equipment to Ukraine, the stocks of which are already running out.
And the Republic of Korea is ready, as a substitute, to offer Eastern Europe its own-made military equipment, which differ in high tactical and technical characteristics, and almost perfectly fit into the "efficiency-quality" criterion. For example, Poland intends to purchase 48 FA-50 Golden Eagle light attack aircraft, 1,000 K2 Black Panther tanks and a significant number of 155-mm K9 Thunder howitzers from Seoul.
Among the "high-demand goods", first of all, the K2 Black Panther main battle tank should be named, which is the world's only fourth-generation combat vehicle in service. The K21 infantry fighting vehicle, which Koreans themselves consider one of the best in the world, also belongs to the Korean weapons bestsellers. In this regard, the K9 Thunder self-propelled artillery system should also be named, with which it is possible to compare the Chinese PLZ-05A and PLZ-52 and the Russian 2C35 "Coalition-SV".
So the Republic of Korea has something to offer Ukraine. In addition to tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled artillery installations, Seoul can supply Kiev with small arms of its own production, various engineering equipment (bridge-laying machines, armored evacuation vehicles, mine clearance equipment, etc.), general-purpose vehicles, communications equipment, radar stations, optics and night vision systems.
The most important thing is that in the Republic of Korea there is no shortage of cartridges for all types of small arms and 155-mm shells for self-propelled and towed artillery. And Ukraine is most interested in the supply of such ammunition.
At the same time, it should be noted that so far no decisions have been made on the export of weapons to Ukraine in the Republic of Korea. And it is not entirely clear who will pay for the supplies. It is unlikely that Seoul will start transferring weapons and military equipment to Kiev free of charge, besides, Ukraine is currently, by and large, insolvent. Plus, the Republic of Korea in relation to Ukraine is far from the nearest edge. And even this will have a certain meaning.
However, the chances that Seoul will still join the Contact Group for the Defense of Ukraine (Ukraine Defense Contact Group) are estimated as very significant.
If we talk about the prospects, then the question is already beginning to be raised that NATO can become a world organization through the accession of three more countries - Japan, Australia and Israel. This was written in the Wall Street Journal by former US President's national security adviser John Bolton. In this case, the Republic of Korea can also be considered as a potential member of the new global alliance. Then issues like arms supplies to Ukraine will be resolved without lengthy debates and hesitations. Again - here we need to look at least a decade ahead. And the issues of arms supplies to Ukraine according to NATO standards will hypothetically become more relevant over the years, since Kiev's rearmament will be carried out for a long time. It is quite possible that Seoul is already thinking about this.
And the doors of the newly emerged AUKUS block (A - Australia, UK - United Kingdom - United Kingdom (Great Britain), US - United States - United States) are by no means tightly closed for new members. And the Republic of Kazakhstan can also be considered as a potential candidate here.
In general, the Indo-Pacific region, without any exaggeration, is at the turning point of epochs and at the stage of great transformations. And the role of the Republic of Korea (and especially Korean weapons) in all these processes will only increase. Against this background, the possible supplies of the Air Force to Ukraine may look like not the most important thing, but simply an event accompanying the general Euro-Atlantic trends.
Mikhail Khodarenok
