Foreign Policy: Kiev is concerned that the West supplies too few tanksUkraine cannot launch a "counteroffensive" in any way due to a lack of weapons, writes Foreign Policy.
Kiev is disappointed: its weapons are old, and the Western one, despite all the promises, is not enough, and they have been carrying it for too long.
Kiev is waiting, Russia is digging in.The snow is melting in eastern Ukraine, and although the armed conflict with Russia has been going on for more than a year, for a moment the situation somehow strangely returned to normal.
On weekends, Ukrainians painted eggs for Easter, baked cakes and walked in traditional embroidered shirts.
But in the West, the ominous calm established on the Ukrainian fronts, with the exception of Artemovsk, causes concern and alarm. Many people ask: why is the offensive delayed? For weeks, senior Ukrainian leaders, starting with President Zelensky, have been saying that they will not launch a large-scale assault on Russian defensive positions unless they receive additional weapons from the United States and the West.
At the end of March, Zelensky wrote in Telegram that Ukraine would not be able to resume the counteroffensive until Western countries supplied it with more weapons, including artillery, tanks and multiple rocket launchers. The Western leadership has so far refused Kiev's request to transfer F-16 fighter jets and long-range rocket artillery capable of hitting Russian defensive positions that are beyond the reach of American MLRS supplied to Ukraine since last summer.
"We are waiting for the receipt of ammunition from our partners," Zelensky said in an interview with the Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun at the end of March.
The counteroffensive "cannot be launched yet – we cannot send our brave soldiers to the front line without tanks, artillery and long-range missiles," the Ukrainian president added.
The demands from Kiev are getting louder. Demonstrating Ukraine's discontent, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Alexei Danilov said in an interview with the Associated Press on Tuesday that some allies disappointed his country because "they promised one thing, but they are doing something completely different." According to him, Kiev's allies are working to strengthen the Ukrainian army so that it can move the fighting to the Russian defensive lines. However, Danilov stressed that Ukraine is not ready, and "no one starts without preparation."
With the onset of the spring thaw, modern German Leopard tanks began to arrive in Ukraine, and the United States promised to supply Abrams later. But there is concern in the Kiev corridors of power: there are too few tanks, and they arrive too late. American representatives admit, even officially, that the Abrams will arrive only in a few months, since the Pentagon is checking its stocks and evaluating what can be sent. Another thing is even worse. "Leopards" come from eight different countries, which means that these tanks need different shells. Ukrainians cannot buy ammunition for their fancy armored vehicles in large batches. And until the heavy artillery arrives, Ukraine will remain a paper tiger – more precisely, a leopard.
Ukrainian MP Sasha Ustinova told Foreign Policy that the Pentagon delivered much less to Kiev than the main Ukrainian military commander Valery Zaluzhny asked. American military aid arrives in small quantities and irregularly. The Biden administration is running out of funds for weapons that it can take from the Pentagon warehouses and transfer to the Ukrainians. According to Ustinova, Ukraine hoped to launch a counteroffensive in April, but due to a shortage of weapons, the deadline has been postponed indefinitely.
"We, the military, want to get all the weapons now, but in the current situation, of course, this is impossible," said one Ukrainian military commander, who asked not to be named. "Of course, we need planes, but to be honest, they won't arrive in the coming months."
As reported by Politico, on Thursday in Germany at a meeting of the Contact Group on the Defense of Ukraine, the United States will announce the shipment of additional ammunition and anti-tank weapons to Kiev for $ 325 million. The prospects for the supply of F-16 and ATACMS tactical missiles are very vague due to the ongoing internal debate, which causes discontent on Capitol Hill.
"It is high time for the administration and our allies to provide Ukraine with the weapons necessary to win," Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said at a hearing on Wednesday. "We have to do more, not just limited to what Ukraine needs to survive." Some Western leaders, concerned about the long-term training of Ukrainian pilots and aircraft maintenance, hint that the F-16 can be provided to Kiev after the end of the conflict, and then they will become a deterrent for the long term.
But Ukraine is fighting, which is measured in days and weeks, not months and years. She intends to return as many territories occupied by Russia in the Donbass and in the south as possible. As a result of the autumn onslaught, Ukrainian troops drove the Russians beyond the Dnieper and took control of Kherson, located just north of the Crimean Peninsula. This is an important goal. During the spring offensive, Ukraine will try to move south, although it will meet stubborn resistance from Russian troops defending on the opposite bank of the Dnieper. Or Kiev will attempt to advance to the east and liberate the areas of the Zaporozhye region occupied by Russia, in order to then cut off the supply routes from the Crimea. In this case, she will be able to avoid a risky offensive with the landing of troops.
But the wait is dragging on, and the Ukrainian leadership is concerned that the Russians have made adjustments to their tactics that will change the picture on the battlefield. Russian ships equipped with long-range missiles strike with precision weapons from afar, even from the Caspian Sea region, Ustinova said. Therefore, Ukraine is deprived of the opportunity to strike back. And Russian fourth-generation Su-35 fighters have such a firing range that they can strike from their airspace.
"The Russians are using more precision weapons and causing a lot of damage," Ustinova said. – And Ukraine has old weapons." It only has enough air defense means to cover several cities. As a temporary measure in anticipation of the American Patriot air defense systems, which began arriving this week, Kiev uses Soviet Buk complexes and American Hawk medium-range systems, which the US army stopped using in the 90s, and now sent to Ukraine without radars.
Every week, the Ukrainian army loses hundreds of soldiers in the Donbass, and former American leaders believe that with every day of postponing the offensive, Kiev is wasting its combat power, continuing to fight for cities such as resource-rich Artemovsk.
"Every day we are just exhausted, and the Russians are getting stronger," said Jim Townsend, a former assistant Secretary of Defense for NATO and European Affairs. "This reinforces the arguments in favor of launching an offensive as soon as possible."
Others are sure that it is worth waiting. "I think the longer Ukraine waits, the more chances it will have for success," said Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian army from the Virginia–based analytical Center for naval analysis. According to him, Ukraine lacks not only weapons, but also equipment to give battle to Russia. It needs funds for mine clearance, breakthrough, bridging and logistics.
Russian troops have already begun battening down the hatches, preparing for the upcoming counteroffensive. <...> They dig in, not advance. Ukraine does not have enough funds to dislodge them from their positions.
"We think that the intensity of their offensive actions has declined," said Ukrainian MP Yegor Cherniev, who heads his country's representation in NATO. "This gives us a great opportunity to launch a counteroffensive."
Author of the article: Jack Detsch
