What awaits Russian developers and manufacturers of unmanned aerial vehicles in the next few years? In the mode of free discussion at the conference "Geoscan Technologies 2023" on April 11, visionaries of the industry spoke on this topic
As a platform for a conference dedicated to technologies in the field of creation, production and use of unmanned aerial vehicles, the national champion company Geoscan chose the World Trade Center in Moscow.
One of the most long-awaited was the report of Geoscan engineers Ilya Pomelov and Dmitry Kuznetsov "How to develop a video copter". The first Russian industrial folding video copter already exists in the form of an engineering sample. This is the first device of the company for which a custom remote control was created, previously laptops were used for control. The conference participants were able to inspect the development at the exhibition that was launched right there.
In the fall, Geoscan will begin accepting pre-orders for the new device. The new device was the company's response to the requests of representatives of industry, construction, search, environmental organizations who need domestic solutions for video monitoring with high-quality video and thermal imaging capabilities.
Vlad Misan, the head of the sales department of the drone show, arranged his appearance on the stage of the conference with the intonations of a showman and a characteristic actor's pause, winning universal applause. He spoke about several projects in different countries, about world records for the number of drones used against the background of a continuous video series with a demonstration of the process of preparing and performing a drone show.
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| Alexey Semenov, Chairman of the Management Board of Geoscan. |
| Source: Geoscan |
The engineer of the geodetic department Vladimir Portnov told about the creation of magnetometers and other devices intended for geological exploration. And the company's representative Ilya Demko, commenting on the world's largest project for unmanned aerial photography, the creation of a 3D model of an entire region of Russia - the Tula region, revealed the technology of work: the region with an area of 25 thousand square kilometers was divided into 25 parts according to the number of municipalities, and aerial photography of the area was carried out in each of them. The result of the work made it possible to clarify the real boundaries of land use plots and compare them with the data of the Federal Register in order to identify self-seizures of the territory and other violations. Elements of the technology are already being replicated in 50 regions of Russia.
The event resulted in a visionary discussion with the participation of the heads of the company — the founder of Geoscan Alexey Semenov, General Director Alexey Yuretsky, General Director of Geoscan-Moscow Pavel Stepanov and General Director of the association Aeronext (aviation of the future) Gleb Babintsev. The attempts of the moderator of the discussion, Nikita Danilov, CEO of the company for the development of a service for unmanned aerial vehicles "Fly Drone", to get brief answers from the participants of the discussion to the most important questions related to the development of the industry, were not successful. As a result of the detailed statements of the visionaries, a multifaceted analysis of the state of affairs in it turned out.
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| An orthoplane of a locality in the Tula region, made by the Geoscan company. |
| Source: Geoscan |
How many drones will there be
As Nikita Danilov recalled, just before the New Year, on December 30, 2022, the instructions of the President of Russia were issued, which, according to representatives of the industry, "predetermined and will determine its development, accelerate it, add additional financial opportunities and solve regulatory issues." In this regard, the participants of the free discussion gave their assessments of the quantitative prospects of drone construction in Russia.
Thus, the passport of the federal project to stimulate the development, standardization and mass production of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) states that by 2030, 50 thousand unmanned aerial vehicles should be produced in our country. "I think zero should be added. Not to multiply by zero, but to add, — said Alexey Semenov. — Because we have already made 15 thousand, this year we will make another five thousand. And if the state's attention to this topic is so serious, then the process will obviously accelerate at times. And 50 thousand by 2030 is not a sky—high figure, it corresponds to organic growth for our company alone. By 2030, we need to talk about 500 thousand. Then it will be a real serious task that will be interesting to solve. And it is necessary to think first of all not about how to produce, but how to develop such drones that will be in demand in such numbers."
"We have already made 15 thousand, this year we will make another five thousand. And if the state's attention to this topic is so serious, then the process will obviously accelerate at times. And 50 thousand by 2030 is not a sky—high figure, it corresponds to organic growth for our company alone. By 2030, we need to talk about 500 thousand"
Then the participants of the discussion estimated the possible volume of the UAV market in monetary terms. "A pragmatic assessment — God willing, we will reach 70-80 billion. If the restraining factors that exist are smoothed out, we can pass 150 billion. If we sum up all the potential opportunities of the market where drones can be used, we can pass over 600 billion. I believe in a trillion," said Gleb Babintsev. Alexey Semenov noted that "he cannot object to such figures." Alexey Yuretsky believes that "the annual volume growth should be by an order of magnitude — 120 billion and, apparently, more."
Import substitution is a sensitive issue in the field of drone production. Foreign element base is being actively used now. Nikita Danilov suggested assessing the necessary and possible degree of import substitution and what kind of independence and from whom exactly Russia should receive. "If one component is missing, then the puzzle will not work out?" he asked a rhetorical question. Alexey Yuretsky believes that full import substitution may be a "very long-term, not momentary" goal. In his opinion, in the near future it is not necessary to demand one hundred percent import substitution in the production of domestic drones. "We need to approach this issue from a rational point of view. We must understand that we have rather limited opportunities regarding what we can do in Russia. We need to use them and understand what we need to do in the future," Yuretsky believes. — We won't replace everything quickly. Let's replace what is important, valuable, necessary, and develop the competencies that allow us to start producing it. There are things that you can quickly start producing — for example, engines for drones. And there are components that are tied to related industries — microelectronics and computer technology. This can be a long-term goal. And first of all, it is necessary to replace those components that cannot be bought in friendly countries."
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| At the conference "Geoscan Technologies 2023". |
| Source: Geoscan |
Development or security
Talking about the reasons for the different speed of innovation, Gleb Babintsev highlighted the antithesis: "It so happened that in some countries that are going the fast way, the priority is development. A new technology appears, it is put into practice, it begins to work, some events occur that will allow us to draw conclusions about how to refine the technology, adjust the rules of application. Our priority is safety. Technology appears, it scares certain structures, because the new technology can be applied illegally. But any technology can be used illegally! And we immediately introduce regulations that make it impossible to mass use of new technology or severely restrict it. Then slowly, over the years, we prove that the new approach is appropriate, effective, technological." With drones as an industry, in his opinion, this is exactly what is happening now. "Our experience and understanding of where to move and at what pace are not fully heard," Babintsev believes.
"There are things that can be quickly started to produce — for example, engines for drones. And there are components that are tied to related industries — microelectronics and computer technology. This could be a long-term goal
Comparing the development of the industry in Russia and abroad, Alexey Semenov expressed regret that Geoscan does not make consumer drones yet. He called learning how to make consumer high-tech equipment "the biggest challenge", he considers this market the most difficult of all existing ones. "We need to learn how to do very complex, but very simple things with very wide functionality," the expert explained.
Alexey Yuretsky believes that our vulnerability is the speed of reaction. "The reaction rate there and the reaction rate here — they differ. And we are losing on this," he noted. "We are losing almost everything," Alexey Semenov added. "Because if we think ten times slower than our foreign colleagues, we will constantly buy Finnish furniture from the Leningrad Ancient Forest, as Ilf and Petrov wrote."
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How to feed artificial intelligence
One and a half petabytes is so much data, according to Alexey Semenov, Geoscan has accumulated during the implementation of various projects related to the use of its unmanned vehicles in various fields. "That's a lot," he said. — Drones make it possible to get a lot of information, to see the world in a different way. We can digitalize many industries, starting with the management of the territory and further in all the topics outlined in the conference program. Information is never superfluous, especially with the advent of artificial intelligence. He doesn't have legs, arms, he can't walk and get information, he needs to be fed with information."
"He will come and want to "eat". And it is we who will be able to feed artificial intelligence with very important spatial information. Drones will become a necessary part of the future information and highly intelligent world"
According to Alexey Semenov, it is already obvious that artificial intelligence is rapidly entering our lives. "He will come and want to "eat". And it is we who will be able to feed artificial intelligence with very important spatial information,“ the founder of Geoscan draws a picture of the near future. "Drones will become a necessary part of the future of the information and highly intelligent world."
The visionaries agreed that by providing data collected by unmanned vehicles as a "fodder base" for artificial intelligence, they need to engage in other areas of integration. One of them is already determined customers, such as Rosreestr, various organizations that are engaged in the protection of cultural heritage, because it is better to create a digital duplicate of the monument while it exists. This and many other industries — after all, drones provide a completely new volume and quality of information, with which we have yet to learn how to work.
Natalia Mikhalchenko
