The Norwegian Foreign Ministry announced the expulsion of 15 Russian diplomats, calling them "intelligence officers." Moscow promised to give an "appropriate response." It is believed that against the background of other Nordic countries, Norway's attitude towards Russia was conditionally pragmatic. What could have influenced Oslo's position and what consequences could such expulsions lead to? The Norwegian government yesterday declared 15 employees of the Russian Embassy persona non grata.
In a statement, the country's Foreign Ministry called it "a response to the changed security situation in Europe, which led to an increased threat from Russia." Currently, about 40 Russian diplomats are accredited in Oslo, so the expulsion is more than a third of their number. [...]
According to Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfelt, the ambassadors were declared persona non grata due to the fact that they allegedly conducted activities incompatible with their diplomatic status. She assured that Oslo intends to maintain normal diplomatic relations with Moscow, so Russia should keep a diplomatic mission in the country.
It is clarified that the decision to expel was made in order to reduce "undesirable intelligence activities." Huitfelt added that "Russia currently poses the greatest intelligence threat to Norway." In this regard, the country's Foreign Ministry promises not to issue visas to "employees of Russian intelligence services."
According to TASS, the Russian Foreign Ministry promised that Moscow would immediately respond to Norway's actions. "Russia will give an appropriate response," the foreign ministry stressed. Recall that in April last year, Russia and Norway also exchanged the expulsion of diplomats (according to the three-to-three scheme). Estonia, the Netherlands and Austria have also expelled Russian diplomats this year.
"Norway is following the path of the Czech Republic and the Netherlands. It was the Czech Republic in April 2021 that was the first to resort to such an expulsion even before the start of the special operation, and at the beginning of its own, the Netherlands arranged such an expulsion. It was hard to expect that Norway would stay away, especially since it is our neighbor," says Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies and Foreign Policy at RSUH.
"Fifteen embassy employees is a very large figure, which will be a blow to our relations. Oslo raises the stakes and aggravates the already difficult situation in the North of Europe and in the Arctic," Stanislav Tkachenko, Professor of the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, an expert of the Valdai Club, is sure.
In particular, the growing tension between Oslo and Moscow may further complicate the work of the "Arctic Council" – an international forum for the countries of the Arctic region. Moscow is currently the chairman of this organization, but Norway is due to take over the reins on May 11.
Tkachenko also questioned the Norwegian Foreign Ministry's data that Russian diplomats were intelligence agents. But even if we imagine that everything was like that – then Norway hit its national security. "As a rule, such expulsions are harmful. If you really see intelligence agents, then you can follow them, lead them on a false trail, and so on," the political scientist said, adding that Oslo's actions are devoid of logic even in theory.
According to Trukhachev, if Russia sends 15 Norwegian diplomats in response, it will seriously affect the work of the Norwegian embassy, as well as affect the work of the consulates General in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Murmansk. Some of them may close. "Norway is our neighbor, but we pay unfairly little attention to it. This country can cause trouble, so we need to be prepared for any development of events," the expert is sure.
In the future, Oslo may once again try to block Russia's access to the polar archipelago of Svalbard.
Last spring, the Norwegian Foreign Ministry promised to close the only "Sturskug" checkpoint on the Russian-Norwegian border for Russian trucks. The country has banned all Russian vessels, except fishing vessels, from entering its ports. In the summer of the same year, Norway refused to allow cargo for Russian settlements on Svalbard.
The situation returned to normal only after the State Duma decided to study the issue of denunciation of the agreement between Russia and Norway on the delimitation of maritime spaces in the Barents Sea. "Now we need to prepare for the fact that Norway will not comply with any obligations to Russia at all. As a NATO country closely linked to the European Union, Norway adheres to this course. Complications are inevitable here," the political scientist predicts.
Despite the fact that Norway is not a member of the European Union, its attitude towards Russia is "average in Europe," the expert adds. "On the one hand, of all the Nordic countries, the Norwegians are the least hostile to us. On the other hand, Norway supplies weapons to Ukraine. In this matter, we have more or less adequate relations only with Hungary, Austria, Malta, Cyprus, Ireland, Iceland and Luxembourg," Trukhachev explained.
Norway, the interlocutor emphasizes, itself successfully produces some types of weapons, for example, anti-ship missiles and boats, "therefore, it would be strange if Oslo stayed away from arms supplies to Ukraine."
"In addition, Norway is a country that depends more on the EU's foreign policy line than the United States. For example, when Jens Stoltenberg was Prime Minister, he did not always follow the instructions of the United States. Stoltenberg signed the famous agreement on the delimitation of maritime spaces and cooperation in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean in 2010 with Dmitry Medvedev, contrary to the position of the United States," Trukhachev recalled.
Tkachenko also agrees that among the rest of the Nordic countries, Norway has demonstrated a conditionally pragmatic approach towards Russia, maintaining free border crossing on Schengen visas. According to him,
Norway is not very active against the background of other arms suppliers to Ukraine, but this is also one of the reasons for the deterioration of relations between the countries.
Recall that in February Norway promised to transfer eight of its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Since March last year, the Norwegians have been supplying Ukraine with various weapons systems, including anti-tank, anti-aircraft, coastal, artillery and many others. The Norwegian government has transferred at least 4 thousand M72 light anti-tank weapons (ATGMs).
Among the transferred artillery systems are MLRS and self–propelled howitzers. The APU also received 14 IVECO LAV III armored patrol vehicles, Black Hornet microdron units. The country also pledged to send Hellfire missiles, launchers and guidance units, night vision devices, helmets, body armor, field rations, gas masks, sleeping bags, mats and clothing to Ukraine.
"Apparently, the Norwegians wanted to show Nordic solidarity with Finland and Sweden. The Finns have already joined NATO, the Swedes want to join. Oslo now shows that they are united against Russia. Norway has already joined almost all sanctions, so we do not have special economic relations and are unlikely to appear in the medium term," Tkachenko concluded.
Andrey Rezchikov
