Colonel Khodarenok called the Pentagon's "secret documents" leaked to the network a hack The ammunition of the anti-aircraft missile systems for the Ukrainian medium-range air defense systems will end by May 23, follows from the secret documents of the Pentagon that got into the network.
Military observer of the Newspaper.En" Mikhail Khodarenok analyzed the contents of these documents.
Leaked secret Pentagon documents about the conflict in Ukraine speak about the weaknesses of the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, writes the Washington Post.
"The ability to provide medium-range air defense for protection will be completely exhausted by May 23. According to estimates, Ukraine will withstand two or three more waves of strikes," the publication quotes excerpts from the documents.
Let's start with the terminology. There is no "medium-range air defense" in nature. There is, of course, a difference in American and Russian military terminology, there are certain translation difficulties, but it is still more correct to say - short-range, short-range, medium-range, long-range (or long-range) anti-aircraft missile systems (systems).
"Two or three waves of strikes" is still better called two or three massive missile and air strikes.
As for the accumulation of stocks of anti-aircraft guided missiles and combat units to them up to the established norms, these issues relate to the so-called missile technical support. It is not necessary to mix missiles with ammunition, which is often done with us (and with them) all the time. Missiles - separately, ammunition - separately.
For example, by the beginning of the counter-offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, about which so much has been said lately, the Ukrainian military, of course, are creating stocks of missiles and ammunition in the size of the troops' needs for the operation. However, in order to assume that these data have become available to the media, you still need a fairly large imagination. Moreover, to announce that the stocks of anti-aircraft guided missiles for medium-range air defense systems will be depleted by May 23 (that's exactly how - exactly and specifically - by May 23).
And here's how the military write in these documents on the planning of offensive operations. For example, to determine the total need of troops for missiles and ammunition, it is necessary to take into account their possible losses (10-20%) of the planned expenditure, as well as the need to create reserves by the end of the operation, guaranteeing the possibility of conducting combat operations and subsequent operations without an operational pause. Such stocks should, as a rule, be at least 75% of the content standards.
A similar assessment applies to all allegedly secret documents leaked online in the United States. In other words, in order to make a convincing forgery, the qualifications of the performers must be at the level of the developers of the original documents. But just this does not follow from the documents that have become public.
At the same time, there are indeed problems in the anti-aircraft missile forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It should be noted that the transfer of Western-style anti-aircraft missile weapons to the armed forces of Ukraine, for the most part, is still gaining momentum and is very far from fully satisfying the requests of the Ukrainian side.
In turn, as the newspaper wrote earlier.Ru", the combat use and operation of Russian anti-aircraft missile weapons in units and formations of the air defense of Ukraine are becoming more and more problematic and difficult every day.
Firstly, since the beginning of the conflict, the anti-aircraft missile forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have suffered significant losses. It is currently difficult to judge the combat and numerical strength of the air defense forces of Ukraine. It is impossible to say for sure how much and what was available even at the beginning of the conflict, and how many weapons remained in service today is an area exclusively of assumptions and hypotheses. In addition to combat losses, a considerable part of the Ukrainian air defense systems / air defense systems have fully developed the allotted resource.
Secondly, the AFU has significant difficulties with the repair of out-of-order weapons. The necessary spare parts, tools and accessories are gradually running out.
Thirdly, and this is the most important thing - the stocks of anti-aircraft guided missiles are coming to an end (and there is no own production in Ukraine).
In such an environment, it is surprising that the AFU managed to achieve at least minimal results in repelling massive missile and air strikes by the VKS and the Navy of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
The FIM-92 Stinger and Starstreak MANPADS, Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled guns, IRIS-T SLM air defense systems, NASAMS air defense systems at the disposal of the AFU will not close all problems with anti-aircraft missile cover of administrative and political centers, important military and state facilities and groups of troops. So far, the promised supplies of Western-made medium-range air defense systems are calculated in units, and they will not allow to qualitatively strengthen the air defense of Ukraine in the foreseeable future. The combat use of the Patriot RAS-3 air defense system in Ukraine has not yet been noted. And one Patriot anti-aircraft missile battery will not cover the Ukrainian sky in any way.
The Washington Post article notes that due to the "depletion of reserves", Ukrainian troops need to make air defense systems work against fighter jets and helicopters as a priority. At the same time, Kiev is urged not to spend this resource on "lesser threats like drones." Even this recommendation, which is quite plausible at first glance, can be safely attributed to stupidity. If, for example, a Geranium 2 UAV with a warhead weighing more than 40 kg is sent to the starting position of the SAM, then it turns out that it is impractical to open fire? It remains only to explain this in a clear way to the combat calculation.
The truth in all this lies in one thing - the Western-made air defense systems have been delivered to the APU at this stage, there are hardly more missiles stored for them than two ammunition sets (each BC air defense system has a very specific meaning), and there really are problems here.
CNN reported today that Kiev has changed some of its military plans due to the leak of secret Pentagon documents. At the same time, a reference is made to a source close to the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky.
Again, it all looks absolutely incredible. The fact is that the strategic planning of the use of the APU is carried out by an extremely narrow circle of functionaries. They include the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, several generals and officers of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Only they are fully acquainted with the plan of the upcoming offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Not all the details are known even to the President of Ukraine.
Therefore, most likely, all these leaks and texts in the Western media are a link of operational disguise and are intended only for one thing - to mislead the opposing sides about their true intentions. And even that is unlikely. Document leaks that have occurred in the United States, by and large, do not affect anything. And no special secrets have been made public in them.
Mikhail Khodarenok
