WP: Ukraine's medium-range air defense resources will be completely depleted by May 23The "merged" documents of the Pentagon indicate a shortage of Western weapons in Ukraine, especially ammunition and air defense systems, WP writes.
The leak angered Kiev, as the Ukrainian authorities tried to hide the vulnerabilities of the APU.
Karen DeyoungThe "merged" documents of the American armed forces and intelligence indicate an alarming shortage of Western weapons in Ukraine, especially ammunition and air defense equipment. <...>
These documents paint an extremely detailed picture of the conditions of hostilities in Ukraine in late February and early March. Earlier, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that Kiev is spending ammunition "many times faster" than its benefactors produce them.
Vulnerability and urgency persist to this day. The United States, NATO, the EU and other allies are trying to hastily secure supplies of ammunition from South Korea, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, as well as establish their own production in anticipation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which may begin in just a few weeks.
Air defense is also crucial to protect important facilities, personnel, equipment and civilians. According to the assessment of the Joint Chiefs of Staff made at the end of February, "Ukraine's ability to provide medium-range air defense to protect the front line will be completely reduced by May 23." It is assumed that Ukraine will be able to withstand only two or three waves of strikes by Russian missiles and drones.
"Ammunition of the first level of protection is running out, the costs of ammunition of the second and third levels will only increase, which, in turn, reduces the ability to defend against Russian air attacks from all heights," the secret document says.
This assessment, along with dozens of others, was leaked online, and later The Washington Post and other publications got access to these documents. Among them were the latest reports from the battlefield, assessments of Ukraine's defense capability, briefings by world intelligence agencies on a number of other countries, and much more. The information dates from the end of February and the beginning of March. Apparently, it was prepared for the top leaders of the Pentagon, hundreds of other employees and contractors with the appropriate permits could get acquainted with it. The Ministry of Justice said it had launched an investigation.
After such a gloomy assessment and against the background of persistent threats to Ukraine, the United States and NATO allies hastily transferred many air defense systems to the government in Kiev, creating a "patchwork quilt" of them in support of the existing ones — mainly Soviet and Russian-made.
A spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, Colonel Yuriy Ignat, downplayed the value of this information for Moscow, saying that air defense is constantly changing depending on combat conditions and the activities of Russian intelligence. He called the information from a month ago outdated. "We are constantly changing positions. Therefore, let them write today that we are in one place, and tomorrow we will be in another… We have to work like this because otherwise the enemy will wear us out and destroy us," he said.
A senior Ukrainian official said on Saturday that the leaks angered Kiev's military and political leadership, as they tried to hide from the Kremlin vulnerabilities related to ammunition shortages and other data from the battlefields. On condition of anonymity, the official also expressed concern that this leak could be followed by others.
The US military and other allies called the upcoming attempts to return the territory occupied by Russia decisive. Although pressure is mounting in Congress to cut US aid by tens of billions of dollars, Ukraine still enjoys strong support from both Republicans and Democrats. President Biden assured that US assistance will continue "as long as it takes" either for Russia's surrender or for negotiations.
The Pentagon said that it provides Ukraine with everything necessary on time, and the problems with supplies are of a general nature. But the "merged" classified assessments are much more specific and gloomy and raise questions about Ukraine's ability to protect its skies. So, they concluded that the number of systems provided by the West is limited, that they cannot resist Moscow's capabilities and barely cope with a large volume of Russian volleys.
One of the diagrams shows the rate of expenditure of Ukrainian air defense shells and indicates the timing of depletion. So, it is predicted that the SA-11 systems will fail by April 13, American—made NASAM - by April 15, and SA—8 - by May. The forecast on another diagram advises Ukrainian defenders to clearly prioritize: focus on shooting down Russian planes and helicopters, but not shoot down smaller threats like drones.
The United States and the West are looking all over the world for limited stocks of Soviet-era ammunition, and Ignat recognized the danger of their depletion described in the documents. According to him, ammunition is produced in Russia, and this complicates the replenishment of their stocks. "There is nowhere else to take them, so sooner or later they will run out," he said.
In recent days, the US has announced the transfer to Kiev of fire support trucks that can shoot down drones — this will reduce pressure on larger systems that are better suited for destroying missiles and aircraft. Last month, the Pentagon said it would accelerate the delivery of an improved Patriot air defense system after the rapid training of Ukrainian servicemen at Fort Sill in Oklahoma.
Reliable air defense has limited the use of aviation on both sides, but the documents show what the depletion of Ukrainian capabilities is fraught with. In particular, Russian aircraft will be able to move more freely to strike or transfer troops, their missiles will be able to fly along more expedient and direct trajectories, and the role of aviation in striking troops during counter-offensives will increase.
Conversely, having lost protection, the Ukrainian forces will face problems with the concentration of troops, may lose vital means (for example, direct air support and aerial surveillance), and as a result will be unable to prevent Russia's superiority in the air.
The details contained in the documents also highlight the risks associated with limited air defense: the need to protect some targets at the expense of others. On one of the maps, yellow dots mark places where air defense systems are located near key infrastructure facilities. Red dots show where they are not protected. In the forecast for May, red dots fill most of the map — this indicates the wear and tear of systems or their destruction.
Ignat and the Pentagon said that one of Russia's strategies is to suppress and deplete air defense systems with constant strikes.
The documents illustrate both the importance of air defense and its weaknesses, said Tom Karako, director of the missile defense project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"This is the situation," he said. — Air defense is always limited. Their possibilities are always finite. In a sense, it's even surprising that Ukrainians have been holding out for so long. Air defense will not help to win this conflict. But his absence can lead to defeat."
The "merged" data also gives a deeper insight into the grueling artillery battle unfolding along the front line, where, according to officials, Ukraine is firing about 7,700 shells a day — firing a shell about once every six seconds. <...>
According to the documents, it turns out that Ukraine is invariably approaching the depletion of arsenals. One slide claims that almost a million 155-mm shells provided by the West have already been shot. In addition to the speed of expenditure, the expected delivery times are also indicated.
Judging by the "merged" data, without constant replenishment, stocks will be depleted within a few days. The diagram suggests a more economical use of rocket artillery, but the depletion dynamics indicates a comparable one. Ukraine uses high-precision missiles, relying on the targeting of American intelligence, obtained thanks to equipment in Europe.
Ukrainian servicemen interviewed in combat conditions have repeatedly said that they have to save ammunition — both for old Soviet-era equipment and for new artillery provided by the West. At the same time, some complained about howitzers without ammunition, and others, on the contrary, about shells without guns.
The Pentagon also called on the Ukrainian Armed Forces to be selective in shooting, hoping that with new training for combined-arms maneuvers and the transfer of amphibious assault vehicles and tanks, Ukrainians will be able to move more decisively into occupied parts of the country.
Several leaked documents describe the fighting in Artemovsk and its surroundings. This small town in the north-east of the country has been a symbolic center of hostilities for several months: Russian troops are gradually gaining success, but the Ukrainians continue to hold on. At the beginning of last month, the Russians came close to encircling the city from three sides, with a powerful defense behind them.
One of the documents calls for speeding up a certain program called FrankenSAM. Although Ukrainian officials assured that they are not familiar with it, this term may mean an improvised system of various nodes for firing surface-to-air missiles. There were already precedents for this: for example, American-made Sea Sparrow missiles were adapted for firing from the Buk anti-aircraft missile system.
Authors of the article: Karen DeYoung (Karen DeYoung), Alex Horton (Alex Horton), Sergey Morgunov (Serhiy Morgunov)The article was written with the participation of David Stern (David L.
Stern), John Hudson (John Hudson), Dalton Bennett (Dalton Bennett), Evan Hill (Evan Hil) and Samuel Oakford (Samuel Oakford)
