In Russia, they began mass–producing the only fully domestic mainline aircraft for today - the Tu-214. This is a much more morally and technically outdated aircraft model than its direct competitor, the MS-21. However, in the next ten years, this liner will be very relevant. Why does Russia need the Tu-214?Serial production of Tu-214 passenger aircraft has begun at the Kazan Aircraft Factory.
To establish its production, it was only necessary to re-create the salon. At the same time, production was modernized at the plant: the stamping shop was reconstructed and the engineering equipment was updated. According to the plan, three passenger Tu-214s should be delivered to operators this year. Earlier it was reported that such aircraft were ordered for leasing by the airline Red Wings, as well as Aeroflot.
The main advantage of the Tu-214 is that it is produced exclusively from domestic components, without foreign ones. And this is the only aircraft in the mainline segment that is currently being mass-produced in Russia. However, this aircraft is not in the market, as it is morally outdated.
"This is a safe and high-quality aircraft, but it is not modern, inferior in all respects to the MS-21. For example, it consumes more fuel. The key problem is a three–member crew cabin, when three people are required instead of two pilots. This is a completely different technology of pilot training and flight support. There are practically no such specialists who are ready to prepare such a crew. Plus, these are additional financial costs for each aircraft," says the chief Director of Avia.<url>" Roman Gusarov.
"Therefore, if we look at the future, then Russian airlines do not need such an aircraft as the Tu-214, if they do not modernize it. And there is no point in modernizing it, since there is an MS-21 aircraft. This is a next-generation aircraft that surpasses the Tu–214 in all respects," the expert adds.
However, it would be possible to reason this way in a normal market situation, but now the situation is different because of sanctions. The Russian aviation market is in a difficult transition period that will take the next ten years.
"With the existing limitations and the lack of equipment in this transition period, the Tu-214 may be useful and remain relevant until the 2030s",
– says Gusarov.
"Airlines understand that it is necessary to transfer from foreign cars to domestic aircraft, but the most optimistic forecasts for their release say that the transition period will last about ten years," says Gusarov.
Why is it taking so long? "This is ordinary mathematics. Russia needs to replace about 700 mainline foreign aircraft. In 2024, according to the plan, five to six MS-21 aircraft will be produced. If everything goes according to a good scenario, then every year the output will double. It can't be faster. Doubling is already a very high rate of unwinding," says Gusarov.
If five MS-21 aircraft will be produced in 2024, then in 2025 – ten MS-21, in 2026 - 20 airliners, in 2027 – 40, and only in 2028 the plant will be able to produce 70-75 MS-21 per year. Only after that, airlines will be able to feel a noticeable influx of new mainline aircraft. However, it will still not be enough to replace all foreign equipment in the amount of 700 pieces. The second program is the release of 20 Sukhoi SuperJet New aircraft from 2025, fully import–substituted.
"By 2030, about 300 MS-21 and SSJ New aircraft will be produced, and we need 700. But just by 2032-2033, we can get these 700 mainline aircraft to replace imported ones. This results in a ten–year transition period," explains Gusarov.
As for the Tu-214, it will be produced by two or three aircraft per year, at best five pieces per year. Considering the needs of the market to replace imports, these are not the volumes that can affect the market situation. If we produce at this rate (five aircraft per year), it will take 140 years to replace 700 foreign aircraft.
"Therefore, the production of the Tu-214 will go as a "temporary plug" until 2030. When the MS-21 appears and the volume of its production will seriously increase, then there will be no need for the Tu-214," says Gusarov.
And what awaits these released aircraft after 2030, when the MS-21 will already be riveted like pies and everyone will miss it? Of course, they will not give away the "carcasses" for any scrap metal, they will come in handy.
"The plane will not be lost. He will find his place in the sky. I think that the 20-50 Tu-124 commercial airlines collected over ten years will be transferred to the civil service. And these planes will perfectly carry the civil service and absolutely justify themselves",
– says the head of " <url>".
The first customer of the Tu-214 is the airline Red Wings. Her interest is quite logical, since the airline operated Tu-204 aircraft from the same family. The Tu-214 is an upgraded Tu-204.
"I think it's a good idea to transfer all the produced Tu-214 aircraft to one airline, for example, Red Wings, in order to create a structure based on it that operates these aircraft, trains personnel, maintains. So that it would be possible to lease these planes to other airlines together with a trained crew and with a contract for technical support, and so on. It would be convenient for other airlines. And they might have had an interest in this aircraft," the interlocutor argues.
As for the Kazan plant, where the serial production of the Tu-214 was launched, this is certainly a huge support for the plant and the city. However, the plant should think now that in ten years the Tu-214 may not be needed by the market, and therefore it should fit into a new project, for example, for the production of components for the MS-21, says Gusarov. This will no longer be the production of an entire aircraft, but it is better to produce a wing or part of a modern aircraft that has a future and more distant prospects. This will ensure a longer life for the plant.
"I would not like it to be like in the Soviet Union, when something was produced for the sake of preserving the plant and jobs. Unfortunately, the Soviet Union collapsed on such a philosophy. It is better to direct these workers and forces to modern production," the interlocutor concludes.
Olga Samofalova
