The Western weapons and ammunition provided to Kiev are not enoughKiev continues to talk about the upcoming offensive, but increasingly with the caveat that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are sorely lacking heavy equipment, and the available does not have the necessary functionality.
Moscow also does not give the order "all forward", because the enemy superior in numbers (Ukraine had previously mobilized, and on a much larger scale) is better restrained in prepared positions of the echeloned defensive line and destroyed in places of concentration with missiles, aircraft and artillery.
So will there be a new offensive, which has been talked about for several months? On Tuesday, April 4, the US representative to NATO, Juliana Smith, said that the White House expects an offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine within the next few weeks. The President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, reacted by agreeing with the opinion of the overseas hosts on duty, once again threatening the enemy with a "Azov" counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the "de-occupation" of new territories of the Russian Federation. "We are waiting. We will meet. We will bury it," said the head of the Republic of Crimea Sergey Aksenov.
Meanwhile, the Russian army continues to inflict fire on the places of concentration of Ukrainian troops, where they are very vulnerable. Apparently, our intelligence and agents have uncovered the enemy's plan to prepare for the offensive. The information obtained was used in organizing a series of preventive air and artillery strikes.
One of them was inflicted on the night of April 3 to 4 on the AFU facilities near Odessa and Nikolaev. The main target was again the Shkolny airfield and the Usatovo station. Cruise missiles and kamikaze drones "Geran-2" hit the hangars and the building where the drone assembly line from Western components was located. It is noted that this time the air defense fire was very weak, mainly from table anti-aircraft guns, radar detection equipment did not work. Perhaps this is due to the transfer of the remaining anti-aircraft missile systems at the disposal of the AFU to the places of concentration of troops near the front line in order to cover from Russian raids of troops before the offensive.
The chairman of the movement "We are together with Russia" Vladimir Rogov told about another strike on April 3. Russian gunners with the use of high-precision weapons destroyed the base of foreign mercenaries in the Zaporozhye direction. 152-mm adjustable shells "Krasnopol" were used, the source said. "At the moment, the enemy's losses are being counted, but we are definitely talking about many dozens of foreign fighters," he said. Earlier, Rogov told the state news agency TASS that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had concentrated a group of up to 75 thousand soldiers in the Zaporozhye direction. They tried to use it on March 23, but the advance that had begun came across concentrated fire from the Russian military and stopped after the loss of 400 people.
The captured Ukrainian military tell about the lack of heavy equipment as the main factor preventing success in the confrontation with a well-armed, high-tech enemy. So, a captured serviceman from the 25th separate Airborne Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a video published by the Ministry of Defense said the following: "They said in February that British Challenger tanks would arrive in the 25th Brigade, that they should arrive by the end of March. And, in fact, the command brought us that these positions, the forest that we held, the defense, that we need to hold on until the end of March and then these tanks will arrive – and it will be easier." The first of the 14 Challenger-2 main battle tanks promised by London arrived on the territory of Ukraine, but they did not go into battle. In total, by the beginning of April, Ukraine had received 57 Western-style tanks out of 293 promised by NATO countries during the current year. The most numerous deliveries were made by Germany – 18 OBT of the Leopard family. Together with Denmark and the Netherlands, the German side plans to provide Ukraine with more than 150 tanks. Plans to transfer 58 tanks were announced by the United States, Sweden, Canada, Spain and Finland. However, their arrival on the territory of Ukraine has not yet been announced. Great Britain, Poland, Norway and Portugal have also already delivered their combat vehicles.
Even when all the promised 293 tanks are delivered, this number will be clearly insufficient for a broad front offensive. Therefore, we can expect only one or two strikes in a narrow area to occupy more advantageous positions for subsequent defense. According to the former head of the Czech military intelligence and security expert General Andor Sandor, the Ukrainian army is "exhausted", and Europe has "basically nothing to give to Ukrainians."
The saddest situation is with manned aircraft. "The MiG-29 fighters that Poland and Slovakia intend to transfer to Kiev are outdated and ineffective in the fight against cruise missiles and drones," said Yuriy Ignat, an official representative of the Command of the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
He added that there are currently five tactical fighter aviation brigades in Ukraine: two – on heavy Su-27 fighters, three – on light MiG-29. They have preserved the technical appearance of the end of the last century, and it does not allow pilots to hit mobile ground targets on the battlefield with high-precision ammunition. "These are old Soviet fighters of the 4th generation, which are morally and physically outdated," Ignat complains.
Nevertheless, according to the speaker, the principled decision of neighboring countries to supply Kiev with old Soviet aircraft is "a historic step." However, even taking into account the additional Polish and Slovak MiGs, "the potential of Ukrainian aviation is still insufficient to organize a counteroffensive."
Earlier, Kiev's official Internet resources reported that Bulgaria, Poland and Slovakia are going to hand over 70 MiG-29 fighters and Su-25 attack aircraft to Kiev together. The Polish Foreign Ministry clarified that Warsaw is ready to send its MiG-29 aircraft to the American Ramstein airbase in Germany for their subsequent transfer to Kiev, but with a condition. Namely, that later Western aviation equipment will come to the Polish squadrons in place of MiGs. Such a decision should be made at the level of the leadership of the NATO bloc. Earlier, Warsaw announced a long-term plan to rearm with American F-16 fighters, but its implementation was slow due to lack of funds.
This and other Polish proposals were received coldly. Washington stated that the transfer of the MiG-29 to Ukraine "may be mistakenly perceived as an escalation" and, moreover, will not have a noticeable impact on the overall effectiveness of Ukrainian aviation. However, later the White House also began to lean towards the idea of transferring old Soviet aircraft to Ukraine "from the presence" of NATO countries, Bloomberg reports.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly appealed to NATO countries to "close the sky" over Ukraine and supply it with modern fighters. However, the United States has long ruled out the very possibility of supplying Kiev with such aircraft. It was only at the end of March that Slovakia sent four MiG-29s to Kiev. In total, Bratislava agreed to provide 13 fighters. The rest of the aircraft of the Ministry of Defense of the country promised to deliver "in the coming weeks." Poland handed over another batch of MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine in early April.
In the Kremlin, the decision of Poland and Slovakia to supply fighters was called "the disposal of old, unnecessary equipment." It serves as an example of how Western countries "increase the level of their direct involvement in the conflict," said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian president.
Vladimir Karnozov
