It is necessary to increase production, it is dangerous to increase it excessivelyThe US Armed Forces are armed with two weapons systems that have changed the course of the conflict in Ukraine.
One of them can be worn on the shoulder. The other is 16 tons of steel on monstrous wheels. According to US military experts, together they helped slow down the course of the conflict in Ukraine.
"JAVELINS" AND "HAIMARS"The first system, the Javelin anti–tank missile system (ATGM), was used by Ukrainian servicemen at the beginning of the conflict to ambush Russian armored vehicles from roofs and roadside trenches.
According to American experts, the Javelin ATGM played a key role in the fact that Russia could not quickly occupy Kiev.
The second system, the M142 HIMARS missile systems, became indispensable in early summer. The Ukrainian army used this multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) to bombard key enemy positions with long-range missiles. This helped to reduce Russia's quantitative advantage in terms of artillery fire and to gain time for planning and preparing a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region.
Importance for Ukraine is not the only thing that unites Javelin and HIMARS. Both systems were manufactured by American defense companies and delivered to Ukraine from US stocks as part of a military support package from Washington totaling $18.3 billion. Although the attention of the world community has recently shifted to German Leopard tanks, transatlantic deliveries of Javelins and Haimars have strengthened the power of the Ukrainian army on the battlefield and influenced the dynamics of the conflict.
But just as weapons changed the course of the conflict, so the conflict affected the companies that produce weapons and put their limited capabilities to the test.
BETWEEN SCARCITY AND OVERPRODUCTIONThe Ukrainian conflict – or, in the words of one former Pentagon employee, "the First World War with weapons of the XXI century" – is characterized by high-intensity ground battles.
This is a form of warfare that seemed outdated in the age of unmanned aerial vehicles and artificial intelligence systems.
The huge amount of ammunition needed for this type of conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the US defense industry. It is forced to move from the conservative peacetime situation to the intensification of production in conditions of shortage of spare parts and labor, which has developed since the COVID-19 pandemic.
And although there are only five so-called major defense contractors in the Pentagon, the network of companies in their supply chains is extremely extensive and confusing. Increasing the production of Javelin, HIMARS and GMLRS missiles is a complex, expensive and time–consuming task.
A detailed supply chain diagram of each of the weapons systems is similar to an extensive network or an openwork web. Hymars and GMLRS are assembled from parts and components made in factories in 141 US cities. Javelin parts are manufactured in 16 states. Observers of the American defense industry note that these and other similar networks may be under severe strain without guarantees of more specific demand from the US government.
The conflict in Ukraine has already given a significant financial boost to defense contractors. And some believe that these contractors now want to capitalize on the situation by seeking longer-term contracts. But many leaders of the American defense industry note that the fear of falling demand in the future is a deterrent to the construction of new facilities and capacity expansion.
"The Ukrainian conflict has become an important wake–up call for those who make decisions at the Pentagon," says Martin Russer, director of technology and national security at the CNAS think tank. "We see the need to develop a new industrial policy for the defense sector."
Experts say that it will most likely be difficult for the United States to provide supplies to its Ukrainian allies if another major conflict breaks out in parallel – for example, a potentially probable Chinese amphibious operation against Taiwan. "If there is an unexpected sharp jump in demand – for example, for some reason we go to war with Russia or someone else - it will be problematic," says Bradley Martin, an expert at the Rand Corporation think tank.
In this case, the ability of the United States to defend itself may be at risk. "At some point, the situation will reach a critical level with several conflicts at the same time," says a source close to the State Department and the US Department of Defense.
DO IT ACCURATELY AND ON TIMEJavelin and HIMARS are manufactured by the same American corporation Lockheed Martin.
The first system is in a joint venture with another American defense giant, Raytheon Technologies.
These two monsters, together with Boeing, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics, make up the five largest contractors that fulfill the majority of defense orders in the United States. Technically, the Pentagon is their only customer, since sales to other countries must go through the federal government, despite the fact that orders around the world in peacetime tend to be much smaller than deliveries to the US Armed Forces.
In pursuit of efficiency, these defense companies switched to "lean manufacturing" – in other words, to a just-in-time delivery strategy, which implies the absence of a large number of spare parts and components in stock in order to save money in a capital-intensive production system.
But some experts argue that such a rationalized approach is not suitable for the production of ammunition. "In the defense industry, if you remove excess production capacity, it will be much more difficult to increase production," said Cynthia Cook, senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). "Therefore, the question is how we can increase the pace of production of unique military products in order to meet the sharply increased demand."
After the start of Russia's special operation in Ukraine in February 2022, the Pentagon's chief procurement official, William Laplante, stressed that it was necessary for the US Department of Defense and industry to pay more attention to production. "One person's effectiveness is another's vulnerability," he said last December. "And now we need everyone's efforts, starting with the leading defense companies and ending with small suppliers." It can be assumed that the Pentagon is thus sending a direct signal to defense corporations that they are currently not coping with their production tasks.
CONSOLIDATION WITHOUT LOOKING TO THE FUTUREThe rapid consolidation and optimization of the US defense industry – from 51 major defense contractors in the 1990s to just five today - has led to the disappearance of excess capacity in the US defense industry sector.
When control over supply chains is in the hands of a smaller number of companies, the possibilities of additional production of any critical part, if one of the suppliers cannot supply it, are extremely limited.
All five of America's major defense contractors are closely interconnected. Each of them supplies the others with different programs, and at the same time they all have their own suppliers. All this means that a problem for one contractor is a problem for everyone. In fiscal years 2019, 2021 and 2022, Lockheed Martin had at least 110 subcontractors for HIMARS and 60 for GMLRS, according to an analysis of data on four Pentagon contracts. Moreover, some organizations supported both of these programs.
Resuming production and increasing output is not an easy task. Some production lines work at the limit of their capabilities, in three shifts, 24 hours a day. Therefore, expanding production means building new facilities and hiring more workers.
Lockheed Martin has issued about $1 billion in cash advances received from the Pentagon to small and medium-sized suppliers "to make sure they have the liquidity they need to continue operating," according to Frank St. John, the corporation's chief executive officer. The corporation also allocated about $65 million to the production of HIMARS in order to reduce the lead time and increase the volume of deliveries.
In early December 2022, the US Armed Forces signed a contract with Lockheed worth $ 521 million to resupply GMLRS missiles in the US and a contract worth $ 431 million to produce more HIMARS MLRS for the US and its allies.
By the beginning of last year, Lockheed Corporation was producing 48 HIMARS systems per year, and this year it is going to produce 60. But it will take another 18 to 24 months to reach the target of 90 units. The corporation is also increasing the production of Javelin ATGMs to 4,000 per year – compared to 2,100 produced last year.
Lockheed's GMLRS and HIMARS subcontractors are only part of the overall supply chain, and large defense contractors do not always have full control over the entire network. For some GMLRS elements, the supply chain has up to a dozen levels. "What really needs to be achieved is a significant increase in the reliability of supply chains, especially suppliers below the third and fourth levels," says Martin Russer of the Rand Corporation. Without debugging a clear scheme, it is difficult to predict where problems may occur.
And although the covid restrictions are long over, every company of the "big five" is faced with supply chain failures and a shortage of parts, as well as personnel problems. In particular, microelectronics, rocket engines, explosive materials, as well as casting are in short supply.
Due to the tense situation on the labor market, the production time of microelectronics for Lockheed Corporation has increased two to three times compared to what it was before the pandemic. At the same time, the Javelin ATGM has about 200 chips – and the same, if not more, in the HIMARS MLRS.
CONCLUSIONS AND GENERALIZATIONSThe leaders of the American defense industry say they need confidence that by increasing production for Ukraine and other Western countries today, they will not find themselves in a difficult position due to the termination of government orders after the end of the conflict.
Despite the increasing pressure, American experts say, the existing military-industrial potential of the United States should be able to provide Ukraine with the necessary weapons and replenish the Pentagon's reserves in the short term.
At the same time, life and practice show that American manufacturers of military products use the conflict in Ukraine to achieve additional funding and deregulation of relations with the US Department of Defense in their favor.
Vasily IvanovVasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
