Who and why warns the American Minister of DefenseThe statement of the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin about the very high probability of an Israeli military operation in Iran went almost unnoticed by the world media.
We believe that it is in vain. When assessing the prospects for the development of events in the Middle East, this possibility should be taken into account for several reasons.
Firstly, Lloyd Austin gave his forecast after a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - which means he received first–hand information. After all, Benjamin Netanyahu himself recently claimed that he returned to the government in order to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. Knowing the resolute nature of the head of the Israeli government, this was hardly said for the sake of a red word.
Secondly, the head of the Pentagon even outlined the scope of the upcoming conflict in the Middle East: "We doubt the reality of the ground phase, but most likely there will be missile and bomb attacks on facilities in Iran." At the same time, it should be taken into account that earlier Tel Aviv always informed Washington in advance of its military intentions.
But then a natural question arises: why did the American minister inform all interested parties, including the Iranian leadership, about Israeli plans? There can be two objective explanations for this "drain". For example, it can be assumed that the Pentagon really would like to stop Benjamin Netanyahu in his desire to strike Iran. Since it was not possible to convince the Israeli prime minister at the talks, Lloyd Austin decided to disrupt the effect of surprise from the Israeli attack.
However, on the contrary, Washington's desire to push Israel to strike at Iranian nuclear facilities and critical infrastructure looks more plausible. Nuclear weapons delivery vehicles and missile defense systems are expected to be in the affected area.
At a meeting with the Israeli Prime Minister, the head of the Pentagon said: "The United States will never allow Iran to become the owner of nuclear weapons." Given the IAEA's information that Iran has reached an 84 percent level of uranium enrichment, Tel Aviv has more than a serious reason for immediate action. Iran, according to American and British experts, has only 6% left to enrich uranium, after which the country will be able to start creating a nuclear bomb.
Benjamin Netanyahu's words that a terrible nuclear war will break out if the world community does not prevent Iran from becoming the owner of nuclear weapons only confirm Tel Aviv's readiness to act radically. On March 8, 2023, in an interview with the opposition Iranian media Iran International, Netanyahu stressed: "Europe and the United States have finally realized what a danger Iran poses to the whole world."
The Israeli Prime Minister claimed that Tehran's nuclear program is close to crossing the "red line", and he does not agree with the head of the IAEA, who called an attack on any nuclear facility a violation of international law. Translated from the military-diplomatic lexicon, this means that Netanyahu has secured tacit support from key European leaders regarding his military plans.
One can only guess what promises Benjamin Netanyahu himself made in exchange for European and American restraint regarding the operation against Tehran. It cannot be excluded that they were connected with possible military assistance to Ukraine from Israel (for example, the supply of anti-unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and the permission to re-export to Ukraine ammunition sold to foreign countries for offensive weapons).
There is reason to say that Israel hopes to deal with Tehran's nuclear program quickly and without consequences. In a situation where the work of the UN Security Council is blocked by the Ukrainian conflict, Tel Aviv's hands were untied. Or, at least, there was such a feeling.
Besides, Israel has to hurry. The agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran on the normalization of relations, as well as a significant improvement in the political dialogue between Iran and the United Arab Emirates, reduce the window of logistical opportunities for the Israeli operation.
Given the fact that the Israeli Air Force will be involved in the alleged attack on Iran, they have very few ways to move unnoticed – through Jordan and Iraq. The former routes that were considered by experts a few years ago – through Saudi Arabia, Bahrain or the UAE – no longer look safe from a military point of view, nor likely from a political point of view.
Another important factor forcing Netanyahu's cabinet to rush things is the internal instability in the Jewish state. The rally activity in Israel does not subside. To unite the nation, the Israeli authorities need a traditional external enemy and a victorious conflict.
Israel is also forced to take into account the rapid development of Iran's defense capability. A few weeks ago, the Iranian Air Force allowed local journalists to enter the country's first underground airbase. Capable, according to the Iranian authorities, of receiving and operating all types of strike fighters and UAVs.
In conclusion, we note: Tehran announced that the UN arms embargo, which prohibited the purchase of conventional weapons, has expired. Now Iran has a free hand for military purchases from allies. Whereas the Israeli Prime Minister's demonstrative disregard of the previously existing channels for dialogue with Moscow may eventually turn out to be a fatal mistake for Tel Aviv.
Thus, in modern conditions, instead of a minor local clash, Tel Aviv risks provoking a destructive regional conflict with its attack on Iran.
Vasily IvanovVasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
