Russia and Belarus have been building a Union State since the end of the last century and have now passed a difficult path. But in recent years, both countries have made huge steps towards each other. After the start of its economic and military integration noticeably accelerated – and brings results. What will be the further development of the Union State? The Day of Unity of the peoples of Belarus and Russia is celebrated annually on April 2.
On this day in 1996, the presidents of the two states signed an agreement "On the formation of the Community of Russia and Belarus". Exactly a year later, an Agreement on the Union of Belarus and Russia appeared. The Declaration on Further Unity of Belarus and Russia signed in December 1998 is considered to be the next important stage in the development of union relations.
This and other documents expressed the determination of the two countries to continue the gradual movement towards voluntary unification into a Union State (SG). In the era of the noughties, the construction of the Union State stalled. Minsk tried to pursue a multi-vector policy, which did not benefit integration with Russia. As a result, that period was overshadowed by "milk wars", disputes over energy prices and other problems.
But over time, there were more and more questions in the West about why Alexander Lukashenko continues to be re-elected to the presidency. As a result, following the results of the presidential elections in August 2020, mass protests took place in Belarus as a sign of disagreement with the officially announced results. These actions, as stated in Minsk, were organized by Europe and the United States. The coordinators were in Poland and other countries.
Russia in every possible way provided moral support to Alexander Lukashenko, who at one point had to take up arms himself to defend his victory. As soon as the protest wave came to naught, the integration of the two countries began to revive.
The next major milestone was the approval in November 2021 by the Supreme State Council of the SG of a new package of integration documents, which includes 28 sectoral union programs, as well as an updated Military Doctrine and the Concept of Migration Policy. Union programs should unify legislation in various areas of the economy, create equal conditions for business.
In addition, thanks to them, unified financial and energy markets and road networks will appear. In recent years, the laws of the two countries have been actively converging. This facilitates the supply of energy carriers and the construction of nuclear power plants, the exchange of various products. Belarusian industrial enterprises are already participating in tenders on an equal footing with Russian enterprises, including the state defense order.
Since Russia launched a special operation in Ukraine in February last year, Minsk has been Moscow's main ally, providing its bases and territories for Russian military and equipment. Such trust was made possible due to the coordinated foreign policy pursued by the two countries and the rejection of NATO's advance to the east.
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko paid special attention to the creation of a powerful military group together with Russia. In fact, the parties are building a single defense space. For the whole world, the agreement of Russian President Vladimir Putin to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus at the request of Lukashenko turned out to be unexpected. Already this summer, work on the creation of special warehouses for storing nuclear weapons is being completed in Belarus. In a message to the people and parliament, the Belarusian leader said on March 31 that, if necessary, he would be able to agree with Putin on the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons in the country. According to him, the West should be ready for such a scenario.
"The SG agreement was aimed at the future, because at that time few people could predict the current situation. SVO has made huge adjustments to the formation of the SG, primarily in terms of military cooperation between the two countries. Against the background of the unification of the collective West against us in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus have created a single defense space. Currently, neither Moscow nor Minsk have a "Partnership for Peace" with NATO," Belarusian political analyst Alexander Alesin explained.
The interlocutor noted that in addition to the creation of a regional joint grouping of ground forces, there is also a unified regional air defense system. "A regiment of S-300 air defense systems has been deployed on the southern borders of Belarus. This is important because there has been no air defense shield between Belarus and Ukraine since Soviet times. Now, as we all understand, this is the most dangerous direction for Western attacks on the SG," the expert noted.
"The Belarusian military–industrial complex is now, in fact, working for Russian subcontractors - it is the production of microcircuits, laser-optical equipment, including equipment for optical sensing of the earth, that is, intelligence. Other areas of the military–industrial complex will also develop intensively," the specialist predicted.
Western sanctions against Russia and Belarus have led to the fact that Moscow and Minsk are close to completing the creation of a single energy market, Alesin emphasizes. "In addition, our companies operating in the same niches have stopped considering each other as competitors. Now MAZ supplies components to KAMAZ, Gomselmash has introduced an additional shift for the manufacture of parts for Rostselmash, and so on," the analyst said.
The expert highlighted the deepening cooperation in fundamental science, a largely secret field. "A few days ago, a representative office of the Kurchatov Institute was opened on the basis of the Institute of Physics and Technology of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus. Genetic research will be conducted there, innovations in microelectronics will be studied," he stressed. According to him,
The urgent task of the SG is a significant and multiple increase in joint military production, which is impossible without high–tech Belarusian solutions. Import substitution of essential goods is also necessary.
"The issues of the existence of the supreme bodies of the SG – the parliament, the head of the SG, the introduction of a single monetary unit remain unresolved. However, this is just not a matter of first necessity. Regular communication between Putin and Lukashenko, as well as meetings at the parliamentary, governmental and interdepartmental levels are quite enough for the work of the SG," the political scientist believes.
Taking into account the sanctions, it is the commodity, economic and energy sovereignty of the SG that is the main challenge and task for Moscow and Minsk. And it is these issues, according to experts, that will be discussed by the leaders of the two countries at the next meeting of the Supreme Council of the Union State, which is scheduled for April 6.
At the same time, political scientist Ivan Lizan recalls that in 2020 Russia actually became the guarantor of the preservation of the sovereignty of Belarus. "Before that, Minsk was constantly arguing about energy carriers, was afraid that Russian oligarchs would buy Belarusian enterprises for a song, talked about "evil forces" from Moscow, who allegedly sent fighters of the Wagner PMCs for a riot. But after August 2020, when there were mass protests in Belarus, all this geopolitical rhetoric ended," Lizan recalled.
The signed roadmaps on integration, which by that time had turned into union programs, "gave Russia geopolitical calm."
"It became clear that the Ukrainian scenario will not be repeated in Belarus – starting from the Maidan and ending with a military confrontation with Russia", –
the interlocutor noted. – "In addition, Russia now does not need to hastily look for ways of import substitution of Belarusian goods, including high-tech ones. This applies both to the consumer market and to technical products. Belarus supplies millions of tons of dairy products to Russia, wheeled tractors, tank sights, microelectronics for the military-industrial complex, dump trucks, wheeled tractors of traction classes, combine harvesters and much more."
With the development of the Union State, industrial cooperation in most areas will grow. According to the expert's expectations, Belarusian capital will start investing in new Russian regions and launching production there. "For example, in the Donetsk People's Republic, Belarusian dairy products have always been treated with trepidation. The developed Belarusian construction complex should also participate in the restoration of infrastructure and housing in new regions," the political scientist believes.
Rafael Fakhrutdinov, Andrey Rezchikov
