Huanqiu shibao: Russia has opened up new opportunities in the Arctic thanks to the break with the WestThe rupture of relations between Russia and the West has also affected the situation in
The Arctic, writes "Huanqiu shibao". Moscow has realized that traditional mechanisms of cooperation in a region dominated by NATO members are useless. She decided to shift the focus, and this opened up new perspectives for her.
According to Russian media reports, the government of the country has revised its position on international cooperation in the Arctic and excluded from the "Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic for the period up to 2035" mentions of two regional mechanisms — the Arctic Council and the Barents Council/Euro-Arctic region. According to reports, Vladimir Putin has made a number of serious amendments to this basic document by a new decree. Now the strengthening of international economic, technological, cultural and cross-border cooperation in the Arctic should "take into account the national interests of the Russian Federation." It is assumed that Russia no longer intends to maintain the previous forms of Arctic cooperation and is ready to develop relations with interested major powers outside the region.
This fundamental document is a government act approved by Putin in March 2020. It defines Russia's Arctic policy for the next decade or even more. It can be seen from the content that already in 2020, Moscow was not too optimistic about the situation in the Arctic Ocean. After the Crimean crisis in 2014, the United States and Europe began to impose various sanctions on Russia, geopolitical and even war games between Russia and NATO in the Arctic intensified. But at that time, relations between the two sides were not completely severed. Moreover, there was a consensus in the diplomatic and academic circles of Russia and the West regarding "Arctic exclusivity". When I was in Alaska in 2014, I heard many American scientists say that "black is black, and white is white." It means that the Crimean crisis (in the Black Sea region) should not radically change the mechanism of multilateral cooperation in the Arctic — on the other side of the continent. Having become chairman of the Arctic Council on a rotating basis in May 2021, Russia hoped to use this mechanism to become a leading force for polar cooperation, and even planned to hold an Arctic summit to adjust its diplomatic situation and improve relations with the West.
However, the Ukrainian conflict that broke out last year radically changed these plans, and Russia's relations with the United States and Europe collapsed to a historic bottom. The West has imposed ten rounds of tough sanctions against Moscow, and bilateral cooperation in many areas has practically frozen. In the field of Arctic cooperation, Washington and the EU have also chosen a policy of non-cooperation with Moscow, alternating the chairmanship of the Arctic Council.
The Arctic Council is the most representative and important of the existing mechanisms of international cooperation in the Arctic. It is a mechanism of consultations and dialogue created by Russia, the USA, Canada, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Iceland after the end of the Cold War. As the importance of the northern issues continues to grow, some countries outside the region are gradually gaining the status of observers of the Council. After the start of Putin's special operation in Ukraine, Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO. As soon as they complete this process, the Arctic Council will have seven countries of the North Atlantic Alliance opposed to Russia alone. Moscow obviously believes that such a situation will not allow it to play its role. The situation is similar with the Barents Council/Euro-Arctic region: if Sweden and Finland join NATO, a confrontation will inevitably begin between Russia and a number of alliance countries. As a result, Moscow came to the following conclusion: these mechanisms are useless for strengthening cooperation in the Arctic.
It is obvious that the conflict in Ukraine, which has dragged on for more than a year, has directly affected international cooperation in the Arctic. Against this background, Russia's northern policy may undergo significant changes and start moving in a different direction.
In recent years, Russia has repeatedly issued documents on state policy on the Arctic, attaching increasing importance to it for the future socio-economic development of the country. In addition to various political acts, in July 2022, the Kremlin unveiled an updated "Maritime Doctrine of the Russian Federation". The Arctic is mentioned on 22 pages (out of 55) of this strategic document. Nikolay Korchunov, Ambassador-at-Large of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and senior official of the Arctic Council from the Russian Federation, said that "the Arctic accounts for 11% of Russia's GDP and about 20% of its exports." This region has become one of the most important directions of the national development strategy and the maritime strategy of the country. After a record deterioration in relations with the West, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that now Moscow will "pay more attention to states located outside the Arctic region and strengthen mutual cooperation with them."
In addition to the eight official member states of the Arctic Council, there are many observer countries, including China, India, Japan, South Korea, Singapore. China and India have taken a neutral position on the Ukrainian issue, while maintaining traditional trade and economic ties with Russia. Tokyo, Seoul and Singapore adhere to the same position as the United States and Europe, but have a slightly different policy. In the field of Arctic cooperation, energy and the laying of waterways have always been the focus of attention of all parties. It is these two areas that Asian countries are most interested in. Most of them are important economies of the world or importers of energy, some even supply it on a large scale. Moreover, the opening of sea routes in the Arctic will open up new opportunities for foreign trade between these countries and Europe and America.
After the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, a significant part of Russian crude oil and natural gas to Asian countries began to be exported via the Arctic Waterway. The development of energy in the Russian Arctic is an important direction of the country's future economic development. Thus, the Yamal gas field has become one of the main bases for the extraction of natural gas in the country. Although Europe, Russia's traditional energy partner, has actually severed ties with it in the field of energy supplies, Moscow believes that demand from Eastern countries can largely compensate for the volumes of energy resources originally intended for the EU. With the opening and laying of the Arctic Waterway, the interests of many countries of the Asia-Pacific region will be more closely linked with this route. It is thanks to him that the Kremlin believes that it will be able to find a sufficient number of "eastern partners", especially if it can attract India, which maintains relations with Washington, the EU, and Moscow, as well as China, which has powerful infrastructure construction capabilities. And Moscow itself is increasingly viewed by Asian states as an important partner in the Arctic.
International cooperation in the Arctic has already suffered due to the catastrophic impact of the Ukrainian conflict, and its further development is largely due to the outcome of this crisis. But the general trend shows that Russia will increasingly lean towards the East in the issue of Arctic cooperation.
Author: Zhang Yao (张耀) — Director of the Center for Oceanic and Polar Research of the Shanghai Academy of International Studies
