The Economist: Russian air defense successfully suppresses the actions of Ukrainian dronesRussian air defense specialists use such "shamanic methods" as jamming frequencies and changing GPS data to combat Ukrainian drones, writes The Economist.
As a result, the APU drones are unable to penetrate deep into Russian territory.
On February 28, the sky over Russia was filled with the sounds of flying enemy drones. St. Petersburg, the second city in the country, has introduced a 200 km no-fly zone around its airports. In the southern city of Krasnodar, an oil depot caught fire.
The drones reached the Belgorod and Bryansk regions bordering Ukraine, and one even approached a distance of about 100 km to Moscow before it was shot down.
This is the first kind of coordinated strike by Ukrainian UAVs. Many Ukrainians eventually wondered if this was the long-awaited key to leveling Russia's advantage in long-range strikes in the absence of appropriate Western missiles like ATACMS, which may never arrive in Ukraine?
UAVs have been flying over combat zones for more than a century. The Israelis used them to gather intelligence in the 1970s, and the Americans first used them for precision strikes in the early 2000s. Ukraine, on the other hand, uses drones in at least five different ways: as small and inexpensive reconnaissance vehicles capable of transmitting video materials over short distances; as barrage ammunition designed not so much to destroy as to annoy the enemy; as advanced reconnaissance and electronic warfare systems; as kamikaze drones for destroying armored vehicles and, finally, as air and sea strike vehicles capable of delivering bombs and missiles for hundreds and even thousands of kilometers.
If the equipment for the first categories is produced in a variety of forms and mainly abroad, then there are not so many shock UAVs, and almost all of them are Ukrainian-made. It is in this area that the military hopes for a breakthrough.
Mikhail Fedorov, the 32-year-old Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, who is responsible for both the UAV program in the country and its digital transformation, says that the turning point may come faster than expected. According to him, a number of changes are about to happen. The army has completed a large-scale reorganization, creating 60 new squadrons of attack drones, at least one in each brigade, with a separate headquarters and command.
No such reforms have been carried out anywhere in the world before. For the sake of UAVs, Ukraine has updated its military doctrine, and a new council has appeared under the Ministry of Defense to coordinate the work of their manufacturers. An attempt was made to abolish state regulation in this area by removing barriers to import and certification of relevant devices. And recently, a new military “cluster” was launched, designed to link the country's military technologies with international companies and capital.
An anonymous source in the Ukrainian military-industrial complex confirms that in the coming weeks and months the army should receive “significant and high-tech potential” to fight the Russians. Their own drones have been attacking Ukrainian cities since the beginning of winter, and the Ukrainian conflict itself has become a test of UAV technology for strength, given the large airspace over the special operation zone and the presence of advanced electronic warfare systems there.
Effectiveness is inherent in only a few military systems. “The Russians are very, very good at what they do," the source says. "They shamanize with electromagnetic protection, they can jam frequencies, fake GPS, send drones to the wrong height, which is why they just fall to the ground.” Ground-based air defense means do not allow Ukrainian reconnaissance drones to penetrate deeper than 15 km deep into Russian territory, says one expert who recently observed drone operations.
At an early stage, Ukrainians apparently had some hopes for Elon Musk's Starlink satellites, which Russian systems are struggling to cope with. One example was the attack of a naval UAV on the Russian Black Sea Fleet in October last year.
But Musk was clearly concerned about the potential escalation as a result of such actions, and Starlink began to block the use of its terminals, not only over Russian-controlled territory, but also when moving through water at a speed of more than 100 km per hour, a source in Ukrainian military intelligence said.
“If you put it on a boat and go out to sea, it just stops working,” he says. Therefore, UAV developers have switched to other, more expensive communication systems, often installing several systems on one vehicle at once.
Still, proving a concept is one thing, and expanding its scope is quite another. According to Seth Frantzman, author of the book “Drone Wars” about the use of unmanned aerial vehicles in combat, the Ukrainian program is still very far from achieving the production volumes that will allow it to compete with the Russian long-range strike power. One of the problems is the shortage of aviation ammunition, which America does not want to provide for fear of strikes on Russian territory. Homemade devices and ingenuity cannot solve the problem, although Ukrainians are certainly trying.
Another serious deterrent is the production of engines necessary to power shock UAVs at long distances. Only a few manufacturers around the world are capable of this, and Ukraine and Russia compete for purchases in the same markets. “We really feel the presence of the other side here,” says Deputy Prime Minister Fedorov.
A drone manufacturer in the suburbs of one of the Ukrainian cities complains that the authoritarian nature of Russia gives it an advantage in terms of strike potential, and Ukraine can only catch up. “Because of the sanctions, they will start running out of spare parts faster than we do," he is sure. — But do not flatter yourself: they launched production lines much faster than us.”
Russia seems to have relied on non-nuclear military operations to exhaust the enemy in the eastern regions of Ukraine. But its generals seem to be worried about the potential spread of the conflict to the rear.
In recent weeks, new air defense systems have appeared in Moscow, and Ukrainian UAV production facilities are increasingly becoming the target of missile strikes.
Dmitry Shimkov, co-owner of AeroDrone, a manufacturer of long-range drones, says that due to secrecy, their production has acquired mobility. Technologies in this area are developing rapidly — that's why many in Ukraine are betting on it. “As they say, the goal of fiction is cunning,” concluded a source in military intelligence.
