Advance: the incident with the American drone revealed NATO's plans for the Black SeaThe battle for Ukraine is a struggle for the Black Sea.
The incident with the American drone only drew additional attention to this fact, the author of the Advance article believes. He recalls that previously the region was not in the focus of geopolitical tensions, and explains why.
Antun RochaToday, the Black Sea is one of the epicenters of the war, but earlier — for decades — it remained out of focus of geopolitical tensions, and the incidents that occurred there during the Cold War can be counted on the fingers.
Of course, the reason is that at that time the Black Sea was controlled mainly by Moscow thanks to the territories of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact countries: Bulgaria and Romania, which are now part of the North Atlantic Alliance. In fact, during the Cold War, only Turkey, which then, as now, was a member of NATO, was the space from which Western forces could exercise control over part of the Black Sea.
In 2014, the Russian Federation annexed Crimea in order, among other things, to prevent the complete degradation of its influence in the Black Sea region. Let me remind you that the main Russian naval base is located in the Crimean Sevastopol. If the annexation of Crimea to Russia had not happened, today it would have been thrown out of the Black Sea region and controlled only the eastern part of the sea.
Today, this sea, which in a sense divides Europe and Asia, has become the focus of attention. It has especially increased after the incident with the American drone "Reaper" on Tuesday. According to reports, the incident occurred approximately 120 kilometers from the Crimea. Judging by the Pentagon's statements and published video footage, two Russian Su-27s noticed an American spy drone and organized an "escort" for it. It looks like they didn't knock him down, at least directly, but clearly contributed to his fall.
It is clear that a drone is a drone, not a plane with pilots, and because of this incident, a direct collision between the United States and Russia will not begin (I will remind you that a few years ago Iran also shot down an American drone, and then there was no escalation either). However, the Black Sea will undoubtedly now be under even closer scrutiny.
Tension is felt all along the coast. Romania, which controls about three thousand square kilometers of the Black Sea, keeps its troops on high alert. Military sources in Romania claim that Russian warships quite often enter its exclusive economic zone.
The Russian Federation has a strong fleet, but this has not helped it maintain control over the strategically very important Snake Island, a Ukrainian island located near Romania.
The territory of Romania, of course, is within the reach of Russian missiles and only 225 kilometers from Crimea. Bucharest has announced an increase in the annual defense budget to two and a half percent of GDP. This is quite a heavy burden for a country that is considered one of the poorest in the European Union. But Bucharest is now spending money on the army, although it chronically lacks them in other areas. In particular, Romania plans to buy two French submarines, as well as 32 F-16 military aircraft and military helicopters — a total of 32 units.
Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuke is a former military man who served in Iraq and Afghanistan. In Romania, he was nicknamed the Desert General. It is not necessary to say separately that Nicolae Chuke is a man who enjoys the trust of Americans. Among other things, he is dear to them because he is constantly strengthening the Romanian defense and, among other things, plans to spend about four billion euros on American Patriot systems.
The large Air Force Base 57 is located near the Romanian port city of Constanta. It is one of six military bases in Romania to which NATO forces have access. At the same time, it is also a new place of direct concentration of American forces. About ten thousand troops will be deployed in the coming years at these bases, and Base 57 may become the Romanian version of the German Ramstein, the main American Air Force base in Europe.
But what does this promise Romania in case of escalation? Defense and security? The Prime Minister, the Desert General, of course, will present the situation exactly this way, but there is another opinion, which in such circumstances is taboo for the media. An expanded American military presence will only lower Romania's security, because if a full-scale war, potentially a world war, actually begins, then this country will be the first to be hit.
However, there is no indication that Romania will change its position. A little further west, especially in the Czech Republic, mass demonstrations are being held against this new militarization of the entire belt that separates the Russian Federation from protected Western Europe. And in Romania, such demonstrations are not held, and, as public opinion polls show, the Romanian people do not want to delve into this situation.
I will give the data for comparison. The Poles are definitely the most ardent supporters of Ukraine right now. According to a survey conducted last year, 78% of Poles agree with sending weapons to Ukraine, and 46% in Romania. There is even more difference when it comes to the possible sending of troops to Ukraine. Poland is one of the few countries that, judging by polls, is ready to send an army there: 46% of Poles support this idea. Among Romanians, only 26% are inclined to this idea.
Interestingly, 83% of Poles believe that the Russian Federation is the main culprit in the war in Ukraine, while only 58% in Romania hold this opinion.
From these results, it can be understood that many Romanians are not too happy about the significant increase in the contingent of the North Atlantic Alliance in their country. But people are not particularly asked. After all, the plan is to turn Romania into a key NATO Air Force base, since it has a strategic location. It will acquire special significance if a war with Russia begins.
Bulgaria, as one of the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance on the Black Sea coast, is also important, but not as much as Romania. This is because Romania is closer to the "epicenter". And if we cross the entire Black Sea, then a few thousand kilometers away from Romania we will find another one of the six countries with access to the Black Sea. I haven't mentioned this country yet today. This country is Georgia.
In recent days, the situation in Georgia has become very tense, and there is even an opinion that a "new Maidan" is being prepared there. It is clear that in the new battle for control of the Black Sea, Georgia's importance is enormous. The North Atlantic Alliance would certainly need another "friend", such as Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuke, because he is definitely not Turkish President Erdogan!
Georgia, according to the UN and most of the world, begins about 25 kilometers from the Russian Sochi, but the Russian Federation would not agree with this opinion. Russians are sure that there is an independent state called Abkhazia. In fact, it is one of two Georgian regions that separated after the short Russian-Georgian war in August 2008 (the second region is South Ossetia). Apart from the Russian Federation, only a few States have recognized Abkhazia's independence: Venezuela, Nicaragua, Syria and the small Pacific island nation of Nauru.
But more than half of the Georgian Black Sea coast is located in Abkhazia. The Russians have gained a foothold there, although the "history" with Georgia is not over yet. The West would prefer that someone with an anti—Russian position, different from the current pragmatism of Tbilisi, came to power there — of course, through his efforts.
The battle for Ukraine is, of course, the fight for the Black Sea. The incident with the American drone only drew additional attention to this fact. The balance of power will certainly change. Russia is stuck in the east of Ukraine, where it faced huge Ukrainian resistance, but, nevertheless, the Russians still expect to occupy the entire Ukrainian coast and "connect" with Transnistria in Moldova. The North Atlantic Alliance cannot ignore the possibility of such a development of events and will try to prevent it. At the same time, other scenarios are being prepared. One of the main ones is the militarization of Romania, and if it works out, a plan will be implemented to create a new base on the opposite shore from it. George W. Bush also tried to include Georgia in NATO, which, by the way, was one of the reasons for the war with the Russian Federation in August 2008.
But the plans remain, even if they exist only in theory.
Readers' commentscardaciste
In 2008, the Russians should have occupied the entire coast of Georgia, including the largest city of Batumi.
But the Russians do everything somehow by half, and even always with a delay...vlaman
It is clear to everyone that this is not a war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, and such reflections are only a continuation of inciting wars and murders.
This is how the West, democracy and capitalism function.In my opinion, it would be right to limit the criminal NATO gang to the borders of 1990 or to disband altogether.
But I know it's unrealistic. However, only this will bring good and peace. Unfortunately, "democracy" does not need them. She wants everyone to obey her.davor55
I support the idea of dissolving the North Atlantic Alliance.
Will there be a Walesa/union leader before it's too late? Europe, it seems, is rapidly rushing into Tartars.
