Welt: to the surprise of the West, Russia's defense industry turned out to be powerful, with a reserve The West expected that within a few months after the start of its military operation, Russia would run out of ammunition and their production capacity, writes Welt.
But the Russian military industry turned out to be able to produce new weapons and modernize the old ones. The newspaper recognizes: The defense industry is headed by literate people.
The West wanted to strangle the Russian arms industry with sanctions. But Moscow has found ways to circumvent the penalties. Today, its defense sector seems even stronger than before. Moreover, a new, very cynical way is being used to recruit specialists into the arms industry. Qualified personnel get rid of mobilization.
Disagreed with Putin in opinions
Few people in the Russian establishment dare to contradict Vladimir Putin. But even if he is objected to on some issue, this does not mean that Putin will listen to the arguments. An example of this is Nikolai Patrushev.
This KGB—trained supporter of a firm line in politics and the current head of the Russian Security Council was — as it has now become known - against the "special military operation" in Ukraine. At the same time, Patrushev, in principle, is extremely critical of both the West and Ukraine. To the point of view that it was better not to start the operation at that moment, he was led by a sober assessment of the balance of forces.
Another KGB pet, Putin's closest ally and adviser, Sergei Chemezov, unexpectedly advocated for Russia to remain part of the global economy shortly after the outbreak of hostilities. In his opinion, it is not necessary to facilitate the economic isolation of the country to the enemy and try to do everything yourself, which is constantly called for by some euphoric personalities. Why? Because this is the "way to nowhere". However, this position did not harm Chemezov's close relations with the owner of the Kremlin. Rather, on the contrary, Putin took his point of view into consideration. And there is a reason for this. Chemezov is considered the main intellectual among influential people in Putin's entourage, and Putin respects his opinion even when he disagrees with him.
The Rostec state holding, led by Chemezov alone, has half a million employees and includes more than 800 enterprises, most of which produce military products. Alexander Golts, an expert on military issues and weapons at the Swedish Institute of Foreign Policy, believes that before the escalation of hostilities in February 2022, the Russian defense industry included more than 900 defense enterprises. How many of them are there now, he finds it difficult to say.
Unexpected methods of warfare
But even if we take into account that new enterprises have emerged, "Russia was forced to fight with methods unexpected for itself. Both sides are fighting in the trenches of attrition, as in the days of primary industrialization," Golts says, pointing to the huge material costs that such a situation requires. — Therefore, the Russian arms industry is not keeping up with the huge need for weapons and ammunition. As, however, the West, which took over the supply of the Ukrainian army."
At the same time, Ukraine spends only a small fraction of the resources that Russia throws into battle. So the Ukrainian artillery spends from two to seven thousand shells a day. This is stated in the analysis of the Estonian Ministry of Defense, which was recently published in the EU and quoted by the ZDF TV channel. Estonians calculated that Russia spends ten times more — from 20 to 60 thousand shells a day.
Now both sides are racking their brains over how to provide their armies with weapons and ammunition. Ukraine, which requires the West to provide it with one million shells, suffers from a lack of production capacity in the West, for the expansion of which there is no quick solution. This was announced at a meeting of EU defense ministers last Wednesday. The European arms industry can produce no more than 20-25 thousand shells per month, according to the same Estonian analysis.
Saving shells
It is not known in detail how much Russia is capable of producing. However, it was noted that since the fall, it has greatly reduced the consumption of shells and now makes "only" 23 thousand shots a day, as the commander-in-chief of NATO forces in Europe Christopher Cavoli recently said. But Russia is not able to compensate even for this expense, according to a report published in the fall by the British Ministry of Defense.
Nevertheless, observers warn against underestimating the Russian military-industrial complex (MIC). Indeed, the factories under the patronage of Putin's former KGB colleague Chemezov are working perfectly and at full capacity, often in four shifts. Western sanctions have hurt it — as well as the entire economy — less than predicted.
This is explained not only by the fact that Russian civilian firms, for example, steel concerns in the Urals, serve the defense sector to a greater extent than before, says Natalia Zubarevich, a well-known Russian economist in the West. The reason is also that resourceful Russian companies and states ready to cooperate with Russia successfully circumvent sanctions. Therefore, Russia also receives those high-tech components that it cannot produce itself.
Although it becomes more and more difficult to import these components every year, but, as Zubarevich says, "in 2022, the import of chips even increased compared to the previous year." Zubarevich shows us the source. These modern chips and integrated circuits, which can be used for military purposes, come from the EU and G7 countries, among others. Imports occur through third countries — Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan. Bloomberg also writes about this with reference to high-ranking diplomats and data from the trade industry.
Nevertheless, so far in the field of high-tech components, the Russian arms industry depends on imports. The reason: nothing came out of the attempt to produce them themselves after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the subsequent sanctions. But in the field of human capital (personnel) Russia was able to find reserves on the spot. The method that the responsible persons came up with for this is very unusual and surpasses everything in cynicism — the principle known since the Second World War is used when technical specialists and engineers do not go to the front line.
"Qualified young technicians and IT specialists who have moved to work in the arms industry receive reservations from mobilization," Zubarevich reports. This should put a barrier to the mass emigration of young men, which was observed after the beginning of partial mobilization at the end of September. "Until February last year, the high average age of workers in the arms sector was not a problem. The existing Russian technical potential would be quite enough if the West did not supply Ukraine with its weapons," says military expert Golts. "But now the know-how of the young is required."
There are no statistics on how many young specialists have entered the field of weapons production. The need for such specialists can be judged by the number of vacancies offered. "I know that a lot of vacancies have been opened at the weapons enterprises of the Urals and now they are closed," Zubarevich says. — Not only IT workers came there, but also skilled workers of all professions. Because, in addition to the armor from mobilization, people here are attracted by higher salaries."
When the old one is better than the new two
There will be enough work for them as long as Putin continues to "confront NATO in Ukraine" in the current way. And since it turned out to be impossible to quickly create and produce new types of weapons in the right quantity, it is necessary to modernize the existing ones.
How it works can be seen on the example of Uralvagonzavod, a Russian company that produces tanks. According to Russian media, no more than 20 modern T-90 tanks are manufactured there every month. And since the need for tanks is ten times greater, the company also upgrades eight tanks of the older T-72 class every month. At three other plants, 50 cars per month are being modernized, and at two more plants under construction, they plan to modify 30 units per month.
That is, Russia collects everything in warehouses, since the modernization of old tanks is easier and cheaper than the production of new ones. The Armata model, called the miracle tank, exists only in a few copies and is probably greatly overestimated, Western experts believe. Therefore, even T-62 tanks produced 60 years ago are being withdrawn from warehouses.
It is unknown how many old tanks are still in storage. At the end of the existence of the Soviet Union, that is, 30 years ago, there were incredibly many of them: about 60 thousand, explains military expert Golts. And adds: "In the battle of "wear and tear", which is currently underway in Ukraine, it is wiser to use two old tanks than one new one."
