Intrigues on the Black Sea have not discouraged the appetite for the ArcticAttempts by the administration of American President Joseph Biden to accelerate Sweden's accession to NATO have stalled indefinitely.
Turkey resisted, which used its right to refuse approval until all the conditions regarding Stockholm's ties with Kurdish separatists were met.
President Biden has publicly insisted that the issue of Sweden's membership in NATO is a foregone conclusion. However, he underestimated the tenacity of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and overlooked some geopolitical consequences.
Joseph Biden and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg thought it would be enough to extradite a few Kurdish fighters to satisfy the Turkish leader's vanity. However, as time passed, Erdogan continued to clarify his conditions, including such points as the lifting of the arms embargo on Turkey, Sweden's participation in the fight against Kurdish militants and the extradition of people associated with Fethullah Gulen, whom Ankara accuses of organizing an attempted coup in 2016.
In the end, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson backed down, saying with irritation: "We are convinced that Turkey will make a decision, we just don't know when." Secretary General Stoltenberg reacted stoically: "I am sure that Sweden will become a member of NATO. I don't want to give the exact date. It usually takes several years."
Meanwhile, the Swedish Ministry of Defense announced the start of negotiations on the conclusion of a bilateral military pact with Washington – the "defense cooperation agreement", which will allow American troops to operate in Sweden. "We are talking about the storage of military reserves, investments in appropriate infrastructure and the legal status of American troops in Sweden," said Swedish Defense Minister Paul Jonson.
In other words, the United States is no longer waiting for Sweden to officially join NATO, but simply proceeds from the fact that it is already a de facto member of the alliance. The US State Department said in a press release that the bilateral pact "will deepen a close security partnership, promote cooperation in multilateral operations and strengthen transatlantic security."
The bottom line is that the agreement will ensure the unhindered deployment of US troops in Sweden – which was previously impossible without Stockholm's official rejection of its long-standing policy of military non-alignment. In other words, although Russia strongly opposes Sweden's membership in NATO, and Turkey sticks sticks in the wheels, Washington will still achieve its goal.
It is curious that Finland, which also moved closer to NATO under pressure from the United States, does not seem to be in a hurry to negotiate a pact with Washington, although it has a 1,340-kilometer common border with Russia. Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto told reporters on Sunday: "Finland is not in such a hurry to join NATO that we can't wait until Sweden gets the green light."
Unlike Sweden, which has always been in the western orbit of influence, Finland had special ties with Russia, which are the result of its history. During the Cold War, Finland positioned itself as a neutral country, maintaining good relations with the Soviet Union on the basis of the 1948 agreement on friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance. This agreement gave Finland enough freedom to become a thriving democracy. Presumably, neutrality could still remain an attractive alternative for Finland. It is another matter if the balance of power in the region changes dramatically as a result of a large-scale conflict in Europe.
It is already clear that the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO will not happen in the near future. Stockholm is either unable or unwilling to comply with Turkey's demands. Meanwhile, the emerging rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus, mediated by Russia, will have a significant impact on the fate of the Kurdish groups and the Kurdish-American alliance in Syria. The situation is further complicated by the fact that presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in Turkey in June this year. This means that Erdogan's political course will not change in the next six months. Six months is a long time. By the summer, the balance of power in Ukraine may change dramatically.
Finland is ready to wait until the summer, but Sweden and the USA cannot. The fact is that Sweden's membership in NATO is actually connected not so much with the war in Ukraine as with the containment of the Russian presence in the Arctic and at the North Pole. Thanks to climate change, the Arctic is turning into a shipping route.
According to calculations, out of almost 60 large oil and gas fields in the Arctic, 43 are located in Russia, 11 in Canada, six in the USA (Alaska) and one in Norway. Simply put, the ghost haunting Washington stands under a banner that says: "The Arctic belongs to Russia."
Sweden and Finland can do a lot to strengthen the positions of the United States and NATO in the Arctic. While Finland has a developed icebreaking shipbuilding industry, the Swedish highly efficient submarine fleet will be crucial both in the military aspect and to hinder Russia's access to the World Ocean.
Vasily Ivanov
