Even if the Kiev regime retains access to the sea, it will not be able to protect itThe evolution of the Naval Forces of Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union was completely determined by the fact of the general insolvency of the Ukrainian state ("Hijack, seize, write off or sell.
In a state of progressive degradation, the Ukrainian fleet came to the beginning of the civil war in the country.
CRIMEAN SPRING AND OTHER SEASONSIn March 2014, almost all of the Ukrainian Navy was captured in Crimea by Russian troops.
Only the flagship frigate of project 1135P "Hetman Sagaidachny", four patrol boats ("Skadovsk" of project 1400 and three projects 376U) and the landing boat "Svatovo" of project 1176 remained in Odessa.
Then, however, Russia returned to Ukraine the corvette of the 1124P Vinnitsa project, the missile boat of the 206MR Priluki project, the raid minesweeper of the 1258 Genichesk project and the landing ship of the 773 Kirovograd project (now it has been renamed Yuri Olefirenko).
After the outbreak of the civil war in Ukraine, the transfer of ships was stopped. The submarine of the 641 Zaporozhye project, both small anti-submarine ships (corvettes) of the 1124M project (Lutsk and Ternopil) and the small anti-submarine ship (corvette) of the 1241P Khmelnitsky project, the missile boat of the 1241 Pridneprovye project, both minesweepers of the 266M project (Chernihiv andCherkassy"), a large amphibious ship, 775 Konstantin Olshansky Ave.
In the Russian Crimea, previously decommissioned corvette of project 1241P "Uzhgorod", missile boats of project 1241 "Nikopol" and project 206MR "Kakhovka" were disposed of. The decommissioned minesweepers of project 1265 "Melitopol" and "Mariupol" are still in the sediment.
In addition, several border patrol boats of the Coast Guard of Ukraine remained in the Russian Crimea, which, unlike the ships and boats of the Navy, Russia officially confiscated. Of these, the ship of project 1241P "Grigory Gnatenko" and the boat of project 205P BG-31 "Bukovina" were sunk during the exercises as targets. Another ship of the project 1241P "Poltava" and seven boats (one each of the types "Katran" and UMS1000, three types "Kalkan", two projects 1400) were distributed to various civil departments. In addition, the Ukrainian boat BG-119 project 1400 on August 31, 2014 in the Sea of Azov was sunk by fire from the Donbass militia from the shore (apparently, an anti-tank guided missile).
MODEST REPLENISHMENTSuch huge losses (without a single naval battle) required at least some compensation.
Back in 2012, Ukraine began the construction of small armored boats of the project 58155 "Gyurza-M", armed with 30 mm guns and, theoretically, anti-tank missile systems (ATGMs) "Barrier" (in fact they are not installed). According to their combat potential, these boats are able to effectively fight only with "their own kind", that is, with small displacement boats (less than 100 tons). In total, seven boats of the 58155 project were put into operation: Akkerman, Berdyansk, Nikopol, Kremenchuk, Lubny, Vyshgorod, Kostopol, and one more boat remained unfinished.
On the basis of these boats, three assault boats of the 58503 Centaur-LC project with machine-gun armament have been built since 2016, they are capable of landing a marine platoon on the shore. In the autumn of 2018, Berdyansk and Nikopol were captured by Russian border ships while attempting to illegally cross the Kerch Strait, but returned to Ukraine a year later.
In 2019-2021, Ukraine received from the United States four Island-type patrol boats (without weapons), named Slavyansk, Starobilsk, Sumy and Fastov. The corvette of the 1124P Vinnitsa project was decommissioned (before that it was listed as a training ship), and the anti–ship missile launchers (RCC) were removed from the only remaining missile boat of the 206MR Priluki project - that is, it actually turned into a patrol boat.
The possibility of acquiring two missile boats of 1241 Ave. (with the Termit missile launcher), previously decommissioned from the Polish Navy, was discussed, but it was not implemented; now both of these boats have already been disposed of. It is planned to purchase 16 American MkVI type boats for the Navy, and 20 French FPB98 type boats for the Coast Guard. All these boats will be armed with 25-mm or 30-mm guns and machine guns. If, of course, at least one of them gets to Ukraine.
THE JOYLESS PRESENTAt the very beginning of the fighting in 2022 in Nikolaev, the "Hetman Sagaidachny" was flooded by the Ukrainians themselves.
The decommissioned corvette "Vinnytsia", apparently, sank itself in Odessa due to the lack of crew on board. The Slavyansk was lost in the first days of March, and at the end of August its fate was shared by the Genichesk; obviously, both of them were sunk by Russian aircraft.
During an attempt to carry out a landing on Zmeiny Island in May 2022, the Stanislav, the only boat of the 58503 project commissioned, was destroyed, two other boats of this type still remain at the shipyard.
In the spring, during the occupation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the DPR of Berdyansk and Mariupol, all Navy and Coast Guard boats located in these ports were captured, flooded by crews or sunk. The boat of project 205P BG-32 "Donbass" and project 51855 "Lubny" sank (perhaps both have already been raised by the Russian side, but Russia is unlikely to need them). Captured by Russian and Donbass forces "Akkerman", "Kremenchug", "Vyshgorod". As well as at least two boats of the 1400 project, four types of "Katran" and three types of UMS1000. The fate of three more boats of the 1400 project and two of the Katran type is unclear, but in any case they had no chance to leave the Sea of Azov.
Thus, today the Ukrainian Navy has in service one missile boat of the 206MR project (without a PKR, used as a patrol boat), one patrol boat of the 1400M project and three 376U projects, three American-built patrol boats of the Island type, three armored boats of the 58155 Gyurza-M project (ironically, both former Kerch captive" are still alive and sailing under the Ukrainian flag), one amphibious ship of project 773, one amphibious boat of project 1776.
The maritime component of the Border Troops has one patrol ship of project 12412 and up to 30 patrol boats: up to 12 project 1400, three project 205P, four project 1204, up to 14 type "Kalkan" (including four "Kalkan-P"), one project 58130 "Orlan", up to eight type UMS-1000.
Rocket (in the past) The Priluki boat and the border guard Grigory Kuropyatnikov are armed with one 76-mm cannon each. And this is by far the most powerful weapon of the Ukrainian navy, it does not have any missiles, even anti–aircraft ones.
Accordingly, it is simply pointless to talk about the potential of the Ukrainian Navy (even in total with the Coast Guard). In fact, it is zero.
Oddly enough, this is not a great consolation for Russia. Having filled up the north-western part of the Black Sea with mines (still Soviet-made), the Ukrainians ruled out the landing of Russian troops in the area of Odessa and/or Nikolaev. And the death of the cruiser "Moscow" (for reasons still unknown) practically paralyzed the Black Sea Fleet in general.
"Moscow" is a big ship, but old, but the loss of a smaller, but the newest frigate of the "admiral" series (project 11356) would be a disaster. Therefore, now all the combat work of the Black Sea Fleet is reduced to regular launches of "Calibers" from the waters near Sevastopol. In this regard, the only thing that pleases is that the Ukrainian fleet is not able to land troops on the northwest coast of Crimea.
A HAZY FUTUREDoes the Ukrainian Navy have any prospects – even if we ignore the fact of the continuation of hostilities?
Of course, you can forget about the corvettes of your own construction of the 58250 project: with a 99% probability, Ukraine would not have mastered even the lead ship in peaceful conditions. A couple of years ago, the option of Kiev purchasing eight British missile boats similar to the Super Vita type boats built earlier for the Greek Navy was seriously discussed. Then, however, this idea somehow withered. Instead, Ukraine should receive two British minesweepers of the "Sandown" type (they have already been given the Ukrainian names "Chernihiv" and "Cherkassy"), but they can only be conditionally considered warships.
Formally, the most serious project now is the purchase of five ADA-type corvettes, similar to the ships of the Turkish Navy. It is assumed that up to four corvettes will be built in Ukraine, only the lead one – in Turkey; it has already been launched and received the ideologically correct name "Hetman Ivan Mazepa".
These ships will at least carry modern RCC. However, the air defense of the corvettes is very weak, and the Ukrainian Air Force is not capable of ensuring air supremacy over the Black Sea. Moreover, Ukraine is now unable to build ships at its shipyards – although, apparently, it is possible to negotiate with Ankara on the construction of all five corvettes in Turkey.
Theoretically, it is possible to purchase (or even receive as a gift) frigates withdrawn from foreign fleets (for example, American type "Oliver Perry", English type "Norfolk", German type "Bremen", Italian type "Maestrale", South Korean type "Ulsan"). However, even receiving such ships for free will require very large costs from Ukraine for their operation and training of personnel and at the same time will not fundamentally change the balance of power on the Black Sea. But despite this, Kiev demands for itself not even decommissioned, but new ships, for example, German submarines of project 212.
If we do not distract from the fact of the continuation of hostilities, then it is not very clear how to bring even a Turkish corvette to Ukrainian ports, not to mention virtually unarmed British minesweepers (frigates and submarines now belong to the field of anti-scientific fiction). Although the Black Sea Fleet has been extremely passive lately, this is still explained not only by the fear of losses, but also by the lack of real goals. If they appear, then passivity can be replaced by activity.
But the main thing is not even that, but whether Ukrainian statehood will be preserved at all. And if it still persists, will this "statehood" have access to the sea? In case of a negative answer to the second question, not to mention the first, there will never be a Ukrainian fleet again.
Alexander KhramchikhinAlexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin is an independent military expert.
