The United States is concerned that its armed forces may "never get" the MQ-9 drone that fell off the coast of Crimea. Why is the world's strongest American army completely powerless in this case, what secrets can this UAV carry – and what difficulties will Russian specialists have to face?"We have done everything to minimize the value of the fallen MQ-9 from an intelligence point of view," said White House spokesman John Kirby.
"However, we are not sure that we will ever be able to lift this device [from the bottom of the sea]."
Thus, the political leadership of the United States made it clear that it took the danger of a drone falling "into the wrong hands" extremely seriously – for example, the hands of the Russian military. And their fears were immediately confirmed by Russian officials.
"Russia will try to get the remains of an American drone that fell into the Black Sea," said Nikolai Patrushev, head of the Russian Security Council. Moreover, there is reason to believe that the operation itself to lift the device (or its wreckage) began on March 14, immediately after the incident with the MQ-9. In a number of Telegram channels, recordings of negotiations between Russian sailors involved in the search for the device appeared.
The MQ-9 crashed in the immediate vicinity of the Crimean coast, but the exact coordinates have not yet been publicly announced. Is it possible to assume that the United States is capable of undertaking some kind of special operation to raise it? With a high probability – no, and this is, in fact, what the recognition of the representative of the White House says.
Firstly, for an underwater operation of this scale, special ships equipped with appropriate equipment are needed. Of course, they are at the disposal of the United States – only these are warships, and in accordance with the Montreux Convention, passage through the Bosphorus (into the Black Sea) is prohibited during hostilities. This means that American warships will not get there either.
Secondly, it is highly likely that Russia will be able to organize such searches much earlier than the United States. "There are technical possibilities for this," says Nikolai Patrushev.
"I can assume that the crashed American drone is located at a depth of about a kilometer. Russia does have deep–sea vehicles at its disposal that can lift it – not entirely, of course, but the wreckage can be found with a high probability," Maxim Klimov, captain of the third rank of the reserve, tells the newspaper VZGLYAD. – For example, the Yuzhmorgeologiya company, which is known for lifting the black box of the crashed Tu-154 over the Black Sea, is able to do this."
However, there are at least several companies in Russia that have autonomous (uninhabited) devices capable of operating in the depths of the Black Sea. That is, at least up to three thousand meters.
There are such devices and government agencies, for example, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, not to mention the Russian Navy and the famous GUGI (Main Directorate of Deep-sea Research). The head of the SVR of Russia, Sergei Naryshkin, also announced the technical possibility of raising the device.
Experts in deep-sea research, with whom the newspaper VZGLYAD talked, note that the main difficulty from a purely technical point of view will not be to lift the device (or its fragments), but to find it. Even if the exact location of the drone crash is known, most likely, the point on the seabed where the MQ-9 is now located is located somewhere to the side. For searches and research, it will be necessary to take into account sea currents, as well as to attract specialized equipment – special underwater vehicles equipped with sonar.
It remains to answer the question – and for the sake of what to raise this drone at all? Is the sheepskin worth the dressing, because the operation to lift the device can be very expensive? What secrets and secrets can it contain? What could Russian special services and engineers find in it?
According to the Pentagon, the MQ-9 was not armed – and this means that it was performing an exclusively reconnaissance mission. But weapons systems in this case are not as critically important as communication and information systems.
First of all, such a modern UAV contains numerous electronic systems and components, both built-in and replaceable. In particular, we are talking about communication systems, optical and electronic sensors, radars, transmitters and other similar devices.
Of course, after being in seawater, all of them will be inoperable, but even in this form they may be of interest to Russian intelligence.
Especially a lot of information can be gleaned by studying the control system of the device, its layout, architecture, engineering solutions and even the materials used for the fuselage and planes.
And then it's worth going back to where exactly the wreckage of the fallen drone is located. The question is fundamental: if they are in Russian territorial waters, then the problem is only technical. In fact, these fragments become the property of the Russian state.
However, if the device is in international waters, everything changes. In this case, the drone remains the property of the United States, and an open attempt to lift it will cause an international scandal. Here we can recall the top-secret operation codenamed "Azorian" to raise a Soviet nuclear submarine, conducted by the United States in 1974. The operation was kept in deep secrecy precisely because of restrictions on working with someone else's (in this case, Soviet) property located on the ocean floor.
Statements by Russian officials about the possibility and desirability of lifting the MQ-9 with a high probability are a sign that the drone is in Russian waters, under full control, including the Russian Navy. So, most likely, the specialists of the Russian military-industrial complex really have every chance to study the secrets of the American drone, and on a completely legal basis.
Nikolay Gulyaev
