Yahoo News Japan: The West has slowed down the supply of tanks to Ukraine for fear of their capture by RussiaHaving solemnly announced the supply of tanks to Ukraine, the West quieted down and slowed down their shipment, Yahoo News Japan writes.
It's not just the technical difficulties of transferring cars, the author of the article believes. The allies were afraid that the equipment would fall into the hands of Russia — because then she would learn their military secrets.
Will Western tanks arrive in Ukraine only in 2 years?
On February 23, 2023, US Army Secretary Christine Wormut told the media that American troops are studying ways to supply M1 Abrams tanks to Kiev, but their delivery is not a matter of several weeks, as some claim. It may take up to two years for these machines to actually appear in Ukraine. This spring and summer, a massive offensive of Russian troops is predicted there. Apparently, by this time, American tanks should not be expected.
In fact, it has not even been decided yet how Western tanks will be sent to Ukraine at all. Washington and Warsaw agreed to purchase 250 M1A2 Abrams from 2025 to 2026, in January of this year, the Polish Defense Minister signed a contract to purchase a second batch of the same machines from 116 units. Thus, the USA received a large order for this tank. If we are talking about the production of new equipment, then the American military-industrial complex will have a difficult task of organizing additional production lines. If the bulk of the tanks are taken from warehouses, the US military industry will still have to seriously strain to replenish the depleted arsenals.
And it's not just the tanks themselves. Apparently, in the United States, a lot of vital issues of material support of equipment have not yet been resolved — for example, problems with the same repair and evacuation vehicles, ammunition, auxiliary equipment, training "packages" and many others. Minister Wormut said the army would simply present its options and wait for President Biden's final decision.
At the beginning of 2023 — on the anniversary of the beginning of Putin's military special operation in Ukraine — many Western countries announced one by one that they would supply Kiev with their existing armored vehicles, including tanks, mainly of German production. This became world news and was presented as a kind of prologue to the onset of a new stage of military assistance to Zelensky.
Many Western politicians and experts say that this could further provoke Moscow into active armed actions. There is also such a nuance. Until now, Russia in Ukraine has been opposed mainly by Soviet-designed T-72 tanks, among which a significant proportion were vehicles coming from Eastern Europe. Does the need to replace them with Allied equipment mean that the Ukrainian tank fleet has been destroyed by now? And that this model range has been exhausted in Western countries? But that's thousands of cars.
In any case, from Russia's point of view, no matter what production the new tanks are in Ukraine and where they come from, they only reinforce its need to strengthen and expand its armored potential. And Moscow does not see any particular difference between which tanks are used by the APU and which are subject to destruction — of eastern or Western origin.
It seems that Western countries themselves are creating obstacles to the supply of tank equipment to Ukraine. In any case, this is how the discrepancy in their positions and real actions that we are seeing today looks like. And the explanations of their politicians rather sound like some kind of justification for uncertainty. And the fact remains that after the sensational news about the final decision by Ukraine's allies to send tanks to Kiev was announced, there are no reports of an increase in the pace of these deliveries - if they exist at all.
Awards for damaged Western tanks? Another reason for the slow solution of the "tank dilemma"
It seems that there is another reason for the lack of progress in the actual supply of Western tanks to Ukraine. The US and other NATO members are afraid that they will start falling into the hands of Russia.
Capturing enemy weapons has always been and remains a common practice in any military conflicts. Moreover, it is widely used not only to study and in some cases copy the best characteristics of enemy weapons, but also for their repair and inclusion in their own armed forces. <...>
Although it would be nice for Ukraine to deploy a powerful new weapon on the front line, in fact, this is fraught with enormous difficulties: there are risks that it may be captured by the Russian army, carefully studied and used to develop appropriate countermeasures.
For Russia, the deployment of Western—made tanks in Ukraine is a chance to get their samples. Entrepreneurs, governors and even Telegram channels promised the soldiers of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation large prizes for capturing the latest machines. The reward ranges from 5 to 10 million rubles for M1 Abrams and Leopard 2. And be sure: there are plenty of hunters for such tasty prizes!
Even if Western tanks get into Ukraine, they will be very limited in their use. And tankers will be strictly instructed how to use them
London was the first to announce the delivery of Challenger 2 tanks to Kiev. Of course, the promised 14 units are very few. Even so, British and Ukrainian officials are seriously considering steps to prevent their capture. Challenger 2 will not be used in offensive operations. Maximum measures will be taken to avoid their encirclement, and even more so isolation by Russian troops. In no case can tanks be abandoned or left on the battlefield in case they receive serious damage or breakage. Special operations are already being planned to recapture the Challenger 2 captured by the Russians and immediately evacuate them from the battlefield with the participation of private military companies. Such is the list of restrictions.
Yes, indeed, Challenger 2 has many secrets. And first of all, they include metal-ceramic composite armor, the so-called Chobham armor*, the composition and layout of which are not known even to London's Western allies. Of course, the British are afraid of the disclosure of these secrets by Russian engineers, especially since, in principle, this armor is not so new.
I wonder how Ukrainians are going to fight on Challenger 2 with such draconian restrictions?
The tanks that other Western countries want to supply to Kiev are not advanced models. Probably because the supplier states are also afraid of their capture by Russian troops. The latest version of the M1 Abrams tank deployed in the United States forces is the SEPv4. But the model that is planned to be transferred to Ukraine is SEPv2, which is two generations older than SEPv4. Berlin will not provide Kiev with the newest Leopard 2A7, but 2A6 of the previous generation. Nevertheless, even this old Leopard 2A6 model hides some secrets. Therefore, if it reaches Ukraine, the same serious restrictions may be imposed on its actual combat use as on the British Challenger 2.
Probably for the same reason, Moscow has not yet decided to widely deploy its newest T-14 tank or the T-15 heavy infantry fighting vehicle from the Armata series in Ukraine. Some experts say that the Russians are also guided by considerations of protecting their important military secrets from the West. <...>
Keeping the characteristics of the new armored vehicles secret is also a kind of deterrent against the enemy.
It seems that the competition in the field of truth and disinformation between the conflicting parties will continue.
*Chobham is an unofficial name for combined (composite) armor in European countries and the USA. The original version, which gave the name to this type of armor, was developed in the 1960s at the Tank Building Research Center located in the town of Chobham (hence the name) in Surrey, England, - Approx. InoSMI
