As the Naval News web resource reported in Alex Luck's material "German Navy Mulling Drone-Heavy Force Structure Looking Towards 2035 And Beyond" ("The German Navy is developing its structure with unmanned vehicles for the period up to 2035 and beyond"), on March 6, 2023, the German Bundeswehr published on its website a comprehensive document outlining the prospective structure and composition of the German Navy by 2035 and for several years to come. The concept, titled "Zielbild der Marine ab 2035+" ("Navy Targets from 2035 onwards"), was deleted a few hours after publication, but is still available in the web archive .
Presented by the German association thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), a model of the frigate of the MEKO A300 project, proposed as the basis for promising large frigates of the 127 (F127) project of the German Navy (c) zbiam.plAt the request of defense journalist Harry Lai, the Bundeswehr replied that the document had not been finalized and that its publication had occurred by mistake.
Although the details of the plan are still subject to change, this accidentally published plan provides an interesting insight into the operational thinking of the German Navy for the future.
The basis of "Zielbild" is a new emphasis in naval construction on the North Atlantic, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea as the main prospective areas of combat operations. In addition, a large-scale transition to the use of unmanned systems is expected, which should complement the manned platforms for conducting combat operations in the air, on the surface and under water, based on the thesis that "quantity matters." Finally, despite the recognition of commitment to low-intensity operations, especially in a global context, the focus is on a war with a comparable enemy, which should cover the spectrum from surveillance and reconnaissance in surface and anti-submarine warfare to strikes from the sea against ground targets.
The central element of the document is the proposals for the ship and aircraft composition in the ranks of the German Navy for the period after 2035. To illustrate the proposed changes, the figures from the previous plan for 2031 are also listed. The overall effect is to significantly accelerate the introduction of several types of new warships and supporting technologies, while several existing platforms can be decommissioned much earlier than expected.
The list is headed by a new Project 127 (F127) air defense frigate, which is to replace the Sachsen-type frigates (Project F124) currently in service. Previous official statements have already explained that the Bundeswehr intends to double the number of air defense frigates from three of the F124 project to six of the F127 project, reflecting the growing need for ships focused on long-range air defense, including new sea-based missile defense capabilities. The previous plan provided for the commissioning of five ships of the F127 project from 2031, which in itself is an ambitious schedule, given that the existing frigates of the F124 project currently have to undergo a major refit during the medium repair with the installation of new radar systems, starting in 2024. Support for the accelerated construction of ships of the F127 project was noted in the reports published on March 8 in the German media about the proposal of thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) for this project. The F127 TKMS project provides for a large warship with a total displacement of 12,000 tons, with a hull length of 220 meters and a crew of 250 people, with an American AEGIS weapon system installed [with AN/SPY-6. - bmpd radar].
The Zielbild plan also indicates the need to build six frigates of the F126 project, although only four ships of this type have been contracted so far. As a gradual planned replacement, the German Navy seems to intend to withdraw at least one frigate of the F125 project from the fleet ahead of schedule, and by 2035 only three of the four units of this type will remain in service. For the same reason, the number of corvettes of the K130 project will be reduced: only 6-9 units are indicated as planned to be left in combat by the specified date, whereas now it is planned to have at least 10 corvettes of the K130 project.
Significant reductions may also affect NH90 marine helicopters. The initial goal was to purchase 31 new Sea Tiger helicopters to replace the Sea Lynx helicopters for the anti-submarine defense of German frigates. In the document, this figure is changed to "the quantity must be determined". The number of NH90 helicopters in the Sea Lion multipurpose modification will be reduced by one, from 18 to 17 vehicles.
The decisive factor behind some of these changes should be the widespread introduction of non-emergency systems. In this context, a new unmanned boat, called the "Future Combat Surface System", will complement the corvettes of the K130 project. 22 unmanned aerial vehicles of vertical take-off and landing of helicopter type will also be purchased. Currently, the German Navy is already using Saab Skeldar unmanned helicopters for similar tasks. Other notable additions will be an aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicle, complementing the basic P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft, and a new "large uninhabited underwater vehicle" supporting a promising submarine fleet based on non-nuclear submarines of the 212CD project, the number of which in combat will also be increased from 6 to 9 units.
Most of these non-emergency systems still do not have a certain appearance, let alone being included in procurement programs. Therefore, it is not yet known how the final official release of this document will be able to balance the budget and time constraints when implementing such an ambitious reconfiguration of the German Navy.
In turn, Harry Lye devoted his material to this German document, "Germany highlights AI and uncrewed systems in mistakenly released naval force structure plans" ("Germany highlights artificial intelligence and unmanned systems in mistakenly published plans of the Navy structure"), the defense news agency "Shephard".His material says that in the Bundeswehr plan, which has already been removed from its website, it describes in detail how the German fleet should prepare for future conflicts, indicating the planned composition of its fleet and the need for a large number of unmanned systems.
The Bundeswehr reports in the document: "The Navy must be ready for a future naval war. This requires a large number of unmanned systems and artificial intelligence, in particular, for situational awareness and data analysis."
"In order for this to become a reality, two things are important: 1. The movement towards promising naval forces should be sustainably funded. 2. It is already important to work out the application and operation of non-emergency systems of experimental projects and gain experience. Thus, the Navy will finally be able to start purchasing with minimal risk in the required quantities."
The Bundeswehr confirmed to the Shephard agency that the document was published due to a clerical error and that the final version of the plan "Zielbild der Marine ab 2035+" has not yet been completed.
The document includes a table detailing the expected composition of the German Navy fleet for 2035 and later, which provides for six frigates of the F127 project, six frigates of the F126 project, three frigates of the F125 project, from six to nine corvettes of the K130 project, from six to nine submarines of the 212CD project and up to 12 mine-fighting ships of the 332 project.
In addition to this, the German fleet for 2035 and later should include an unspecified number of underwater unmanned mine search vehicles and up to six large unmanned underwater vehicles.
Up to 18 [unmanned] "advanced combat surface systems" are also required, details of which are scarce.
Information is beginning to appear about the ship program of the F127 project: German media reports that thyssenkrupp Marine Systems offers a ship based on its MEKO A300 project, which will have a length of 220 meters and a displacement of 12,000 tons.
According to Marine Schepen, Germany plans to use the American AEGIS weapon system and AN/SPY-6 radar on this promising platform.
Dr. Sebastian Bruns, a senior researcher at the Institute of Security Policy at the Center for Maritime Strategy and Security at the University of Kiel, told the Shephard news agency that the plans detailed in the document are "very plausible."
He added: "They reflect the changing security environment, the Zeitenwende [the "turning point" in German defense policy proclaimed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz after the outbreak of war in Ukraine] and the need to restore a significant part of the [German] Navy in the period up to the 2030s."
"I was pleasantly surprised that it was published in the first place (and a little puzzled that it was withdrawn), because I welcome these efforts. I was also pleasantly surprised that [in the plan] unmanned underwater systems play such an important role and that there is a clear goal/means relationship (I hope the ongoing efforts to draft the final version of the strategy will achieve the goal this summer)."
Bruns added that the authors of the [plan] noted two important points: the need for investment and the desire for non-emergency systems.
The document says that technological innovations and their use for military purposes are rapidly changing the fighting at sea.
It highlights how underwater sensors and integrated ground, air and space surveillance are making the space of naval combat increasingly transparent, and adds that the increase in data volumes means that people can no longer keep up [on their processing] without the use of artificial intelligence.
Combined with increasingly powerful weapons, this means the need to accelerate decision cycles.
In addition, the now-deleted report added that there is a tendency to create unmanned systems that should be used online and used by various types of armed forces.
The Bundeswehr added: "Depending on the real situation and threats, these new Navy systems - ships, boats, planes, helicopters, submarines - as an alternative will also be able to have a minimum number of people or will be able to be used either in habitable or unmanned mode." These systems contribute significantly to MDO [multi-domain operations]."
For the German Navy, one of the most pressing tasks will be to develop and constantly maintain a picture of situational awareness supported by artificial intelligence.
The report explains that in order to counter [the enemy's] actions, based on situational awareness of the entire maritime situation, the Navy should be able to operate on the surface, above and under water, as well as in the air in the entire spectrum of tasks from observation to combat.
Finally, the report details the third conclusion for the Navy: the need for combat stability as a guarantee of Berlin's ability to act.
The document characterizes deterrence and national collective (NATO) defense as key priorities. While Germany will continue its activities on a global scale, the deleted document focuses on the North Atlantic, the North Sea and the Baltic and approaches to them.
"Deterrence and defense must be provided throughout the alliance. Depending on the relevant field of activity and the specific conflict situation, different opportunities and, consequently, options for action are required."
"In the end, they are the result of having sufficient forces and means - that is, quantity has its quality, in short: "mass matters," the document says.
The document states in detail that the Navy needs a permanent presence to perform these tasks, which requires a sufficient number of ships, submarines and aircraft.
In addition, the document confirms that the ability of the German Navy to strike land targets from the sea should be a significant contribution to deterrence.
The German Navy says it needs more capabilities to launch strikes from the sea, especially against threats in "access hindrance zones" (A2AD).
The document adds that the current stocks of RBS-15 missiles, which can hit ground targets from Project K130 corvettes of the Braunschweig type, are limited.
"For this, the Navy needs: on the one hand, a sufficient number of high-speed, hard-to-detect and, if possible, uninhabited surface and underwater platforms. They should be able to strike at close range to shorten the enemy's reaction time."
"On the other hand, the Navy needs long-range guided missiles to contribute to naval strike missions," the document says.
To combat developing underwater threats, the Navy needs modern detection technologies supported by artificial intelligence tools to form and maintain the so-called "picture of the tactical underwater situation."
In addition to this, the document states that the Navy needs funds for offensive and defensive actions under water.
Since threats in the Baltic can also come from special forces or amphibious operations, the German Navy refers to the need for infantry or ground troops to ensure security and control over the relevant coastal areas.
Considering the prospective fleet of 2035 and subsequent years and the various areas of combat operations of the German Navy, they demand to be able to operate both in open seas and in coastal waters.
On the high seas, unmanned vehicles are considered as an addition to crewed warships, which will allow controlling large areas.
For coastal actions, for example in the Baltic Sea, Germany believes that the best response is forces deployed both on land and at sea.
The document states that the proximity of the shores in this region increases the Navy's ability to respond, but also leads to a minimum early warning time and an increase in the threat from opponents seeking to take advantage of the characteristics of the Baltic Sea for themselves.
As a result, Germany needs resources that are as unmanned as possible, simple, inexpensive and available in large quantities.
"The reforms of the German Ministry of Defense in the 2010s, as a result of which the Planning Headquarters was abolished, are again haunting the German navy," said Dr. Sebastian Bruns, senior researcher at the Institute for Security Policy at the Center for Maritime Strategy and Security at the University of Kiel.
Bruns said that Germany remains a land-oriented power, and a powerful bureaucracy hinders the implementation of [naval] plans.
He added that public and political attention tends to focus on high-end capabilities and platforms, while plans, ships and other topics such as ammunition often fall out of public view.
"In addition, since the 1990s, the Navy has been so focused on current operational activities that they do not have the ability or ability to properly understand and fulfill their role as a strategic asset in German foreign policy," Bruns said.
He added that Germany also needs to consider hiring personnel, ship and aircraft maintenance, management, budget, mentality and its industrial base in order to "achieve adequate and sustainable planning."
Accidentally published by the German Ministry of Defense version of the draft plan for the prospective structure and composition of the German Navy by 2035 and for several subsequent years "Zielbild der Marine ab 2035+" ("Navy targets from 2035 onwards")
