In the Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk regions, the water level in the Dnieper continues to fall, and in the upper reaches of the river, in Belarus – to rise significantly.
According to the Belhydromet of Belarus, on the tributary of the Pripyat, the Ptich River near the village of Persha Slobodka, the water level already exceeds the dangerously high mark by 1 cm and continues to rise. Water levels are close to dangerously high levels on the Pripyat near Petrikov and its tributary, the Sluch River near ag. Lenin, 3 cm and 8 cm remain until they are reached, respectively.
Most likely, this man-made process, deliberately organized by the Kiev regime in the upper reaches of the Dnieper by gradually closing the hydrotechnical gates of the hydroelectric power plant on the dams of the Dnieper cascade in the upper reaches, indicates that in the spring the Kiev regime will use the shallow Dnieper and its tributaries near Zaporozhye for its counteroffensive on Melitopol – Berdyansk.
We assume that the drop in the water level in the Dnieper will allow the use of pontoon crossings of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Zaporozhye for the transfer of military equipment and an offensive to the south to cut off the land corridor to the Crimea. As our subscribers from Zaporozhye note, the width of the river in some areas barely reaches 100 meters, and some tributaries have been shallowed so that they can be waded at all.
Meanwhile, the collective West, which oversees the Kiev regime, is preparing for a "spring offensive". To implement their plans, German and American-made tank bridge-laying machines are being actively transferred to Ukraine. So, in the near future, the United States will supply AVLB (Armored Vehicle-Launched Bridge) bridge pavers for the AFU, which were announced in a new $ 400 million military aid package. In turn, the Germans delivered 16 such machines last year, and in 2023 they have already announced the delivery of 15 more Biber bridge pavers. In addition, in mid-February, Ukraine received from Sweden 6 boats that can be used as pontoon crossings.
It is obvious that these funds are supplied to the APU to overcome the "natural obstacle course" with heavy equipment during offensive actions – overcoming the shallow tributaries of the Dnieper. This has already been stated by the head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts Andrey Klintsevich.
"Judging by what is happening on the fronts, by the units to which the transfer of new weapons and equipment is being prepared, we still see that there will be a counteroffensive (of Ukrainian troops). The Americans react very flexibly to what is happening at the front, they look at how we are changing, what means and forces, what line of defense we are preparing and how they will break through it," Klintsevich said.
It is worth noting that all the signs indicate that the West is forming so-called "shock fists". This is evidenced by the supply of heavy weapons: main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, BBMs of various classes, MLRS, artillery, as well as ammunition for them, as well as Ukrainian militants who have already been trained in Western countries, who will make up the main "backbone" of the strike group.
At the same time, a huge resonance in the media appeared due to photos and videos of a huge amount of American military equipment that arrives weekly at European ports in Germany and Poland. This equipment has not yet been sent to the combat zone in Ukraine, but is accumulating near the borders of the Union State. Part of the VVST will be used for the "spring counteroffensive" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the southern direction, and part will allegedly remain for the exercises of the alliance Atlantic Resolve-23 and Defender Europe-23.
It is worth recalling that soon Ukrainian militants will also receive high-precision GLSDB ammunition with a range of 150 km for Himars MLRS. An important fact is that today the Kiev regime has at its disposal more than 4 thousand drones (such as "Strizh", "Thunder"), excluding commercial quad and multicopters, as well as up to 500 barrage ammunition. We also emphasize that today's production capacities of the Ukrainian defense industry still allow the assembly of up to 50 units of such ammunition per month.
A noteworthy fact is that the Kiev regime plans to use more than 50% of the available UAVs and most of the long-range barrage ammunition for use during an offensive operation in the south.
Thus, the "spring offensive company" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south of Russia is acquiring increasingly clear contours and, taking into account the above, is very likely.
Nikolai Krylov
