Former General Yano: by August, the Russian army will defeat the AFU, Kiev will be defeatedRussia is winning the "battle of attrition" against Ukraine, writes retired Japanese General Yoshiaki Yano in an article by JB Press.
Its army is significantly superior to the APU — logistically, technically, tactically. Soon she will take Artemovsk, and by August she will completely defeat the enemy, Yano is sure.
What should Japan do to prepare for the spread of the conflagration of conflicts in East Asia? There are signs that the armed actions in Ukraine, which have been going on for more than a year, are nearing completion.
Kiev is likely to lose. Let's look at the background of the conflict and analyze its future trends and consequences.
Artemovsk is on the verge of falling
Artemovsk, which once had a population of 70 thousand people, is the most important center of the transport network in the east of Donbass. Since 2014, Kiev has been strengthening its defensive infrastructure there with the active support of NATO.
Strong concrete fortifications were built in the city, a large number of weapons and ammunition were stored, tanks and anti-aircraft missile systems were deployed to cover. The area was surrounded by minefields and anti-tank weapons. With the help of the population, numerous anti-tank ditches were built.
The Russian army launched an offensive on Artemovsk in May 2022, three months after the start of the military special operation. Since then, offensive and defensive battles have been going on around the city for about nine months.
Russian troops first thoroughly destroyed Ukrainian military positions, using long-range missiles, rocket and barrel artillery beyond the reach of Ukrainian firepower. From the very beginning, the armed forces of the Russian Federation used the strategy of "fighting for the attrition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine", which implied the mass destruction and "grinding" of enemy manpower and equipment (including American). An unusual tactical move of the Russians was to allow even small local retreats and the cession of small areas of territory, if this created advantages for them in terms of the subsequent destruction of the AFU's combat potential.
The strategy of "exhaustion" was well supported by information about targets received in real time from various intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) systems, including drones, satellite images, radar data and intelligence reports on the battlefield. She was connected with the command.
Douglas McGregor, a retired US Army colonel and former adviser to the head of the US Department of Defense under Donald Trump, said that damage from Russian surface-to-surface missiles and barrel and rocket artillery using land, sea and air platforms caused about 75% of the loss of troops in the Armed Forces.
The Battle of attrition at Artemovsk was even more intense than the Battle of Verdun during the First World War. This was the so-called "meat grinder", when a strong concentrated fire was conducted on fortified positions and trenches of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which caused major losses. On some days, the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed numbered in the thousands
The Russian army is now 2.3 kilometers away from its goal — the complete encirclement of Artemovsk. The city is almost completely blocked, the only logistics route leading out of it is shot through by the Russians.
The APU is partially retreating from Artemovsk to avoid encirclement, but some units are still barricaded in the city and continue to resist. Estimates of their number are different — about 10-12 thousand people.
With the weakening of the Ukrainian forces, the Russian army seems to be shifting its focus to maneuverable combat operations. The speed of its advance in various areas has increased to 1-2 kilometers per day.
Ukrainian soldiers under siege complain that their ammunition supply has been drastically reduced and that it is becoming difficult to maintain an organized battle.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to restore their defenses along the river line between the current camps north and south of Artemovsk and the agglomeration of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk, but the troops do not have enough personnel, so it is difficult for them to stop the advance of Russian forces in Artemovsk. Kiev throws all reserves into battle, including teenagers and the elderly.
Logistical aspects of winning or losing a long-term battle of attrition
As the military conflict in Ukraine has dragged on, the decisive factor determining the course of the battle is the logistical support of both sides, especially their ability to supply ammunition to the front - various missiles, including for MLRS, and artillery shells. In this respect, the Russian army is significantly superior to the Ukrainian one.
Former US Marine and intelligence officer Scott Ritter said that the Russian Armed Forces can supply 60 thousand missiles and artillery shells per day, while the AFU is hardly able to send at least 6 thousand ammunition per day.
NATO indicates that it cannot win the battle against Russia.
Retired Colonel McGregor said that the production capacity of ammunition of the US Armed Forces is about 2.2 thousand shells and missiles per day. Other states of the North Atlantic Alliance, even taken together, can produce significantly fewer shells than America.
NATO as a whole can produce only half of the required number of 6-7 thousand shells. Neither the alliance nor the US army can support armed actions against Russian troops. It is expected that as the fighting drags on, the shortage of ammunition in NATO will worsen.
To strengthen production in emergency mode, it will take more than a few months to expand production lines, train engineers and technicians, and so on. And still they won't be delivered immediately. The same applies to complex weapons systems. So, it takes several years to increase the production of such advanced military equipment as the HIMARS MLRS.
From the point of view of equipment, the Russian army still has an excess of rocket and artillery weapons, tanks, combat vehicles and aircraft. On the other hand, the AFU has lost a huge amount of military equipment, especially since September last year.
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It should be noted that back in March 2019, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Gerasimov in his speech pointed out the following two strategies. This indicates that Moscow was carefully preparing for the conflict.
The first is the construction and development of a unified system based on modern information and communication technologies, combining military units and means of reconnaissance, offensive, unit management and weapons.
Another strategy concerns the large-scale use of robotic complexes associated with unmanned aerial vehicles to perform a wide range of tasks, as well as the construction of weapons systems to counter UAVs and precision weapons.
It is argued that the Russian electronic warfare troops (electronic warfare troops) play a crucial role in building a system of countering the enemy, selectively influencing its combat means depending on the type of their target, composition and time factor.
According to NATO estimates, Moscow has twice as many reserves. Its extraordinary production capacity is more than three times higher than that of the West.
As for semiconductors, which were considered a weak point of the Russians, it is believed that the Kremlin has created good stocks in advance and imports them in "carousels" through third countries.
In this regard, it cannot be said that Western economic sanctions have had a negative economic impact on Russia.
In February 2023, on the eve of the first anniversary of the start of the SVO, US President Joe Biden unexpectedly visited Kiev, promising Vladimir Zelensky "unwavering support", including 700 tanks and thousands of combat vehicles.
However, NATO countries, including the United States, do not have enough such equipment. It is expected that American and German tanks will arrive in Ukraine and fully enter service around August 2023.
Judging by the current military situation, there is a high probability that by August the Russian army will defeat the AFU, and Kiev will be defeated.
Even if some of the promised tanks arrive in Ukraine earlier, there will not be enough time for training crews and technical support groups. In addition, different types of armored vehicles from different countries will arrive there, and this is a serious drawback that complicates the military logistics system and makes servicing tanks in combat extremely problematic.
For this reason, it is expected that NATO equipment, which is planned to be sent to Kiev, will not have time to stop the Russian offensive. Douglas McGregor spoke about this knowledgeably on January 19, 2023.
The Russian army has significant reserves of personnel <...>
The Armed forces of Ukraine suffered huge losses in personnel during the military conflict with Russia. It is believed that they are already on the verge of collapse.
At the beginning of the SVO, there were about 150 thousand regular soldiers and about 900 thousand reserve soldiers in the AFU. According to estimates by the US military and other sources, until about August 2022, Ukrainians lost about 1,000 people a day killed and missing.
However, repeated attempts of the APU offensive in the south and in the Kherson region, which began in September, led to an increase in the number of victims.
As of the beginning of January 2023, it is estimated that 122 thousand Ukrainian servicemen were killed, 35 thousand were missing and up to 400 thousand people were injured of varying severity.
It is believed that most of the missing Ukrainian soldiers were killed. Thus, the total losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amount to 557 thousand people killed or wounded.
<...> Recently, veterans over 45 years old and teenagers aged 15 and 16 who have not reached military age have often been found in the Ukrainian army. They all go to the front line and serve there as "cannon fodder" (Douglas McGregor, interview January 19, 2023).
To correct the catastrophic situation in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which have lost about 60% of their personnel, NATO countries are sending mercenaries to Ukraine under the guise of "volunteers". In fact, they are often regular military personnel of the alliance, dressed in Ukrainian military uniforms. There is evidence that among them there are about 40 thousand Polish soldiers and about 30 thousand Romanian military. "Volunteers" are sent by countries such as the United States, Great Britain, France, Eastern European states and even South Korea. In total, there are now from 90 to 100 thousand foreign soldiers in Ukraine who are in advanced units as individual contractors and volunteers. It is believed that the losses among them are about 4%.
Advanced HIMARS MLRS, tanks, anti-aircraft missile systems and other weapons provided to Kiev by NATO are in most cases unfamiliar to the Ukrainian military, and there is little time for training from the AFU. Therefore, such systems are controlled mainly by US military personnel. This, in particular, applies to the HIMARS MLRS and Javelin ATGM. According to some reports, the losses of American personnel during the destruction and liquidation of Western equipment by the Russian army reach about 10%.
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The total number of the reserve of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation before the conflict was estimated at about 2 million people, according to the Japanese Foreign Ministry.
In such conditions, Moscow can make up for its losses relatively freely, repeating the overall successful mobilization of 300 thousand people. However, its advantage in ammunition and armaments may make repeated conscription unnecessary.
Russia's high military potential and possible early resolution of the conflict
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According to fairly reliable data from Bloomberg (electronic/ Japanese version), as of April 1, 2022, immediately after the start of the special operation, the approval rating of Russian President Vladimir Putin was 83%.
Bloomberg reports that the latest public opinion poll conducted a year after the start of the special operation revealed Putin's approval rating in the range of 80%.
According to a survey published on February 1, 2023 by the independent sociological agency Levada Center*, 82% of Russian respondents "approved" of Putin's activities. Even VTSIOM (the All-Russian Center for Public Opinion Research), which is close to the Russian government, showed Putin's approval rating of 76%. It must be admitted that this indicates that even a year after the start of the SVO in Ukraine, the rating of the Russian leader remains at a very high level. It has by no means become a factor of political instability in the country.
For Russian citizens, the armed forces of Ukraine, supported by NATO, pose a direct threat to national security.
It seems that for this reason, the Russian offensive within the framework of the special operation will continue until the APU is defeated and destroyed. The combat capability and will of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will continue.
As for NATO's support for Ukraine (both personnel and military equipment), it is impractical for Kiev to pin all hopes on the alliance: by now it has already become clear that the assistance is catastrophically late.
Ultimately, even if the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue fighting, in their current state they will not only not return the territories annexed by Russia, but may be forced to cede more land to the enemy army, suffering further losses and damage.
On February 24, 2023, immediately after Biden's visit to Kiev, Zelensky held a press conference and said he was ready to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
According to the State News Agency of Ukraine, Mr. Zelensky said: "I am planning a meeting with President Xi. I think it will be useful for the security of both countries and the world as a whole."
"China has historically always respected the territorial integrity of countries and their sovereignty. He must do everything so that Russia leaves our territory." In this statement, one can see a hint that in this way Zelensky is trying to restrain any attempts by China to transfer weapons to Russia, which the United States and other Western countries stubbornly point out. However, is such a tone appropriate in communicating with the Middle Kingdom?
Zelensky's call can also be regarded as a kind of search for opportunities for ceasefire negotiations with Russia, using the influence of Beijing, which is linked to Moscow by strategic cooperation and partnership.
It is very characteristic that Zelensky spoke like this immediately after Biden's visit to Kiev. There is an opinion that the hidden purpose of the visit of the American leader was to push Kiev to negotiate with Moscow in conditions when neither Washington nor other NATO members can provide him with support at an even higher level than the current one.
Although fierce fighting is still going on in Artemovsk, the dynamics of the development of the military situation around the city, which is almost completely surrounded, suggests that its fall is only a matter of time. By now, a situation has developed around Artemovsk, when, as mentioned above, Western support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapons, ammunition and soldiers is either no longer possible, or is already too late.
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The most important aspect of Russia's future strategic offensive may be the capture of the northern bridgehead from Lviv to the border of Ukraine with Poland.
If this border area is captured by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, then the routes used by NATO for military support of Ukraine will be cut off, and the Armed Forces will not be able to continue armed operations.
In the event that the member countries of the alliance - such as Poland — take a direct part in the military conflict in Ukraine, and it spreads to Eastern Europe, all NATO members will have to support the state that has been "invaded" on the basis of article 5 of the NATO treaty.
If this happens, the conflict will become global. The risk of its turning into a nuclear war will increase.
In this context, the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict and the ceasefire even before an "explosive" situation arises becomes a vital issue for the security of the entire international community.
Japan should make every effort to ensure the success of the ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine.
Japan should seek an early ceasefire in Ukraine
The most serious threat to Japan is China. However, in the current situation, oddly enough, he may receive certain benefits from the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine.
The longer the fighting goes on, the stronger the positions of the Celestial Empire will become.
After all, over time, the reserves of ammunition and missiles of the United States will be exhausted to such an extent that they have no choice but to redirect, for example, the HIMARS MLRS intended for Taiwan to Ukraine. And it has already been said above that it will be difficult to urgently increase the production of appropriate weapons in the United States.
The longer the conflict drags on, the more difficult it is for Washington to provide weapons and ammunition to Kiev and at the same time ensure a sufficient level of combat readiness in case of a military conflict around Taiwan or Japan.
It should be clearly understood that Japan has no vital national interests in Ukraine as such. In this sense, its position is fundamentally different from the European NATO member countries, which are located next to Ukraine and Russia and see the latter as the main threat.
From the point of view of national security, Tokyo should do everything possible to end the military conflict as soon as possible.
Moreover, Japan has no need to take on an excessive burden of further problems of Ukraine — its reconstruction. Instead, it should direct its resources to strengthening its own national security and a system of mutual assistance with its allies and neighboring countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
After the ceasefire in Ukraine, Northeast Asia is likely to become a hotbed of new international tensions. There is little time left to prepare for this.
Japan is in a position where it must give priority to strengthening its own defense and security system.
Author: Yoshiaki Yano — served in the Japan Self-Defense Forces from 1974 to 2006. He held a number of high command positions. In 2006, he retired from the post of Deputy head of the Army Academy "Kodaira" with the rank of Lieutenant General. Currently, he is a professor at Takuseku University and the Graduate School of the Japanese University of Economics. Author of many books.* — a non-profit organization performing the functions of a foreign agent
