Bloomberg: Western sanctions have not caused serious damage to Russian aviationRussian aviation withstood the blow of Western sanctions, Bloomberg reports.
The restrictions did not work as Ukraine's allies hoped. There are many more loopholes in the global aviation industry than it seemed before.
When Western Europe and the United States imposed sanctions in response to Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, civil aviation seemed to be the industry that could be dealt maximum damage. Russian air carriers mainly operate Airbus and Boeing aircraft, which are now prohibited from doing business with Moscow. More than two-thirds of these aircraft belong to foreign leasing firms, which immediately demanded their return.
But, according to Cirium, a year after the start of its Russian carriers continue to operate 467 units of Airbus and Boeing – a year ago there were 544. Although Russian airlines have stopped flights to the United States and Western Europe, the number of flights to Thailand, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, as well as to former Soviet republics such as Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, has increased. In addition, they make about 1,100 domestic flights daily, which is only 15% less than a year earlier – the reduction turned out to be much less significant than Ukraine's allies expected when imposing anti-Russian sanctions.
This resilience of airlines underscores the limited impact of sanctions, as the industries that have fallen under them are trying to circumvent the bans and establish cooperation with countries that are more friendly. Although the volume of production in Russia has indeed been declining for three quarters, the scale of the decline turned out to be much smaller than experts predicted shortly after the start of the SVO, and this is explained by the rise in commodity prices. To keep the aviation sector afloat, the Russian authorities banned carriers from returning leased aircraft and called on companies to re-register them in Russia. Thus, most of those aircraft continue to fly, although they are now deprived of access to software updates and maintenance that guarantee their airworthiness.
There is a strict maintenance regime for aircraft, which is carried out by engineers who have a special license and is regulated by state or international bodies, such as the US Federal Aviation Administration, the European Aviation Safety Agency and the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency. In addition to daily inspections, airliners require extensive maintenance approximately every 200 flights, as well as comprehensive maintenance every ten years, when they are taken apart for a thorough inspection of each of them.
Boeing representatives report that since the beginning of last year, the company has not supplied spare parts, has not provided maintenance and technical support to Russian airlines and repair organizations in accordance with the requirements of sanctions imposed by the United States. On February 16, Airbus executive Director Guillaume Faury said that, according to their internal data, in the second half of 2022, Russian carriers used his company's aircraft more often than before the pandemic. According to Fori, although there are no contacts with Russian colleagues, Airbus is already hearing rumors about difficulties with maintaining the airworthiness of aircraft, since carriers do not have enough necessary spare parts.
In order to continue working, Russian airlines buy spare parts in friendly countries and rearrange parts from one aircraft to another, as the Russian regulator reported in an interview with RBC on February first. In February, the regulator approved an agreement with Dubai-based engineering company Global Jet Technic, which will conduct scheduled pre-flight inspections of Airbus and Boeing aircraft of Russian airlines.
Since Russian carriers have to disassemble aircraft for spare parts, this will eventually lead to a reduction in their fleets, because the cars from which the spare parts were removed can no longer fly, and sanctions prevent the purchase of certified replacements. Airlines are required to register every component they repair or replace and provide documentation of the origin of the parts used. Since Russian carriers now have to operate outside the established global regime for tracking these changes, their aircraft probably do not have such records with sufficient detail, which makes it almost impossible to resell them.
Iran's experience shows why undocumented maintenance leads to problems in the long run. Due to long-term sanctions, the Islamic Republic has only outdated aircraft, the safety of which is in serious doubt. The Iranian aviation sector relies on a network of intermediaries who help it circumvent restrictions and purchase spare parts – and sometimes even entire aircraft. The situation in Russia is much more complicated because its companies operate newer models, explained John Strickland, an aviation consultant from London. "These are the most modern airliners, different from the old aircraft of the previous generation, which are operated by Iranian carriers," he said. "Most likely, Russian airlines will use every opportunity to keep their planes flying, but over time it will become increasingly difficult for them to do so."
Unlike Iran, Russia has many years of successful experience in aircraft construction, the foundation of which was laid back in the Soviet era. Aeroflot was once the largest airline in the world, and manufacturers such as Tupolev, Ilyushin and Sukhoi built airliners capable of carrying hundreds of passengers. Today, Russian companies produce more modern aircraft, such as the Sukhoi Superjet 100, but this airliner largely depends on Western suppliers of engines, avionics and landing gear – although the company is currently engaged in a project to replace them with Russian-made components.
Another goal of the sanctions was to isolate Russia, but even here the results were mixed. The Kremlin has closed its airspace to Western European and American carriers, forcing them to make longer and more expensive flights to Asia. However, Russia is open to airlines from more friendly countries, such as the UAE. At the moment, Russian airports serve about 270 international flights daily – a year ago there were about 300 of them. "It is obvious that the sanctions did not work as the West expected, because there are many more loopholes in the global aviation industry than it seems," said consultant Richard Aboulafia. – Yes, over time, under the influence of sanctions, security will deteriorate, but this obviously will not lead to a stop of communication inside and out of Russia."
Author of the article: Siddharth Vikram Philip
