An Nahar: Western weapons do not guarantee Ukraine's victory over RussiaWestern weapons are flowing into Ukraine like a river, writes An Nahar.
The United States intends to inflict a crushing defeat on Russia, but this is impossible: the APU will not gain superiority on the battlefield, even with modern military equipment. Putin will not give up his goals, the author of the article is sure.
Tensions in relations between the West and Russia are growing. American and European weapons are literally flowing into Ukraine like a river. The collective West intends to "decapitate" the Kremlin. But Putin will not sit idly by in the face of external provocations. The aggravation of the Ukrainian conflict next spring threatens to result in a global confrontation or, even worse, in a nuclear war that could lead to the destruction of all mankind.
Additional weapons
With the approach of the first anniversary of the start of the special operation in Ukraine, the intensity of hostilities has increased: The Russian army is working to achieve a final victory, and Kiev is receiving more and more effective and modern American and European weapons.
Recently, the West has stepped up arms supplies to Ukraine. Twenty countries have pledged to provide it with additional ammunition and equipment. The United States has provided the Kiev regime with military assistance in excess of $20 billion. It included Javelin anti-tank missile systems and HIMARS launchers. The UK supplied Mastiff armored vehicles, Starstreak anti-aircraft missile systems and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. France provided Crotale anti-aircraft missile systems, self-propelled artillery Saes and armored personnel carriers. Germany did not want to supply Kiev with weapons so as not to provoke Moscow, but eventually agreed to provide him with Leopard tanks. In addition, other European allies intend to send tanks to Ukraine. Thirteen European countries have Leopard tanks, not to mention the fact that many Eastern European states supplied Ukraine with Soviet-style weapons.
Western military support is very important for Ukraine. It is unlikely that it will change the balance of power or lead to the end of hostilities, but it remains an effective tool for prolonging the conflict and exhausting Russia. The West is trying to prevent the achievement of the goals of the Russian special operation or the expansion of the country at the expense of other states. Additional arms supplies do not guarantee victory for Kiev, but rather contribute to improving its negotiating position. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg linked the outcome of the negotiations, which "will take place sooner or later," with military support for Ukraine. Fatigue, lack of human resources and protracted fighting can lead to a ceasefire and peace talks.
Background
Americans and Europeans are trying to stabilize the fronts and help Kiev repel the upcoming offensive of the Russian army. The following weeks will mark the border between the winter "war of attrition" and open confrontation. The West wants to inflict maximum damage on Moscow, which means increasing costs on the Ukrainian front as part of a multi-vector strategy that does not envisage abandoning Ukraine and a complete boycott of Russia.
America and Europe have limits in terms of military assistance. Ukraine's allies cannot constantly supply it with weapons, and some of its types have their drawbacks. It takes time to train Ukrainian servicemen and transfer appropriate technologies to them. At the same time, Washington refrains from sending modern fighter jets and drones to Kiev, fearing that they will fall into the hands of the Russians. This will allow them to understand how they are arranged and thus help protect themselves from these weapons. Russia, in turn, warns the West about the consequences of supplying Ukraine with long-range weapons, including long-range missiles.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the depth of the advance of Russian troops into Ukraine depends on the parameters of the weapons that will be provided to Kiev by the West. Russia will resolutely defend its territories, civilians and military personnel. The Kremlin also said that the supply of Western tanks to Kiev will not change the situation in Ukraine. Sending Western weapons means that Ukraine has exhausted its stock of weapons. The Russian leadership has made it clear that it will use more modern weapons in response to the actions of the West. Thus, if none of the parties to the conflict recognizes defeat in the near future, then the line of combat will most likely not change. There may also be a direct confrontation between the West in the face of NATO and Russia, or even a third world war using tactical or strategic nuclear weapons.
Therefore, Western leaders are trying to confront Moscow without escalating the conflict. They continue the policy of containment and political isolation, maintain strict financial and trade and economic sanctions, try to eliminate energy dependence on Russia and restrict its access to advanced technologies. America and Europe are making more and more efforts to overcome the food and energy crises in developing countries, while convincing them that the reason for this is the special operation in Ukraine. The United States and European countries have increased their defense spending. They are also cooperating to counter China in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Washington believes that any weakness or inaction of America in Ukraine will affect the whole world and push Russia to increase its military presence in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states. China, in turn, will follow its example in Southeast Asia, especially in Taiwan. That is why the administration of US President Joe Biden is trying to increase the confidence of allies and intimidate enemies by supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Western Bid
Russia allegedly fears a protracted conflict, but it turned out that it is ready for it at all levels. She understands perfectly well that the West opposes her with all its weapons and technologies. Until her morale is broken, she will not announce the end of the special operation and will not leave the territory of Ukraine. The reality is that Western weapons do not guarantee Kiev's victory over Moscow. The Ukrainian army will not be able to stand without him against the Russian forces, which in many ways surpass it, despite some logistical and tactical difficulties. Yes, the goals of the special operation were not achieved as quickly as planned. However, this does not mean Russia's loss, and certainly will not lead to a popular uprising against Putin. Even if he resigns as president, his successor may be someone who considers Putin insufficiently tough or decisive.
Vladimir Putin knows about the goals of the West and skillfully plays chess with NATO. If none of the parties to the Ukrainian conflict achieves an absolute victory in the near future or peace is not concluded through negotiations, then military operations are unlikely to end in the foreseeable future. The most dangerous thing is that miscalculations often occur during confrontations. One mistake can start a chain of terrible events. What do you think will happen if the conflict between the major Powers possessing nuclear weapons reaches a new level?
Author: Muhammad Hussein Abu Al-Hasan (محمد ─سين أبو الحسن)
