Al Mayadeen: the conflict in Ukraine will end only if the West is exhaustedThe special operation lasts exactly a year.
However, the Ukrainian crisis itself began long before February 24, 2022, writes Al Mayadeen. With the hands of Kiev, Washington constantly provoked Moscow to confrontation. Russia had no choice but to start its own. It will not end until Putin secures his country by exhausting the West.
The First World War ended in 1918. Its main results were the fall of the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires, as well as the formation of a new world order in Eastern and Central Europe. On the ruins of the collapsed states, new ones have emerged, and Ukraine has become one of them. It joined the Soviet Union together with other republics.
What distinguishes Ukraine from other countries formed at that time, such as Poland, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia? The answer is that it has never been an independent state in its history. Its vast territories belonged to Russia, Austria and Poland.
Ukraine in the Soviet years lived in conditions of stability. Russian culture prevailed, and the leader of the Ukrainian SSR Nikita Khrushchev led the Soviet Union for about ten years. After the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine became independent, like the rest of the Soviet republics. At the same time, the struggle for power began.
The political forces split into two camps: the first wanted to join the European Union and NATO, and the second wanted to maintain political and economic relations with Russia, through which the interests of the Ukrainian people would be achieved.
In 2014, the Ukrainian political arena was dominated by far—right forces, primarily the Svoboda Party (formerly the Social-National Party of Ukraine), which advocated the preservation of ethnic identity in the face of Russia and communism. Another nationalist party "Right Sector"*, which led armed clashes with the security forces and called for the seizure of power by force, held demonstrations on the main square of Kiev. During one of them, EU High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security Catherine Ashton handed out sandwiches to demonstrators.
The Azov battalion* became a brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine. His fighters dominated the political life of the country and received support from the United States and the European Union. They raised portraits of Stepan Bandera (died in 1959), who fought in World War II on the side of Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union.
There were no other political parties, except those in the east of the country, where the majority of the population are ethnic Russians. Most of the Ukrainian people were a silent, disorganized society that could not resist extremist organizations supported by the West.
The beginning of the conflict
Western politicians and the media claimed that Russia was pulling its forces to the borders of Ukraine and was preparing to invade its territory. However, the armed conflict did not begin on February 24, 2022. Tensions, armed and political clashes have been taking place since 2010.
Viktor Yanukovych served as President of Ukraine from 2010 to 2014. Most of his supporters came from the eastern regions bordering Russia. Yanukovych tried to carefully balance between the European Union and Moscow. He was never able to get guarantees from the West to compensate for the losses of Ukrainian industry in the event of the country joining this alliance.
Yanukovych put his country's relations with Moscow above ties with Europe. The issue of joining the European Union and moving away from Russia's policy has caused serious discussions within Ukraine. In November 2013, Yanukovych suspended negotiations with the European Union. This caused discontent among Ukrainians, who hoped that joining this education would raise the level of the economy and life in Ukraine. Mass demonstrations began on the main square of Kiev with the support of the United States, the European Union and Ukrainian oligarchs, who feared that Yanukovych would move the economic center of the country from the west to the east, where his supporters live.
In February 2014, clashes broke out between demonstrators and security forces, which prompted Yanukovych to hold talks with the opposition. The European Union intervened to resolve the conflict, but the Right Sector organization* insisted on the resignation of Yanukovych, who was eventually forced to flee to Russia under threat of physical violence. Moscow refused to recognize the new reality, and Putin's decision to annex Crimea became a reaction to this drastic change.
A referendum was held on the peninsula, as a result of which it was decided to join Russia. Neither the United States, the European Union, nor NATO countries have recognized Moscow's control over Crimea. Russia has been subjected to political sanctions. She was excluded from the Group of Eight, and the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution condemning the results of the referendum in Crimea by a majority vote. Nevertheless, Russia has retained the Black Sea Fleet, most of which is stationed at the naval base in Sevastopol.
At the same time, Donetsk and Luhansk regions declared independence from the Ukrainian government, who feared that this would result in their secession from the country. Recall that Russians, Ukrainians and representatives of other nationalities live in these two regions. Soon fighting broke out between the militia and the Ukrainian army in the area of the city of Mariupol and Donetsk airport. In this regard, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) initiated a meeting of representatives of Russia and Ukraine in Belarus, during which the Minsk Agreements were reached. They included a ceasefire, the release of prisoners and, most importantly, a referendum on the order of local self-government in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
These agreements have not been implemented. In June 2014, during the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the landing of Allied troops in Normandy, the leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine for the first time discussed the settlement of the conflict in Donbass.
In 2019, another Normandy Four summit was held in Paris. But the parties failed to make a breakthrough in the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. From 2014 to 2023, as a result of clashes between the Ukrainian army and the militia, about 13,000 people were killed, thousands of people were injured and many settlements were destroyed.
In December 2022, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the Minsk agreements were an attempt to buy time for Ukraine to become stronger. Ukraine 2014-2015 is not a modern Ukraine.
Military buildup in October 2021
Russia began to pull its forces to the border with Ukraine in October 2021. She also sent military personnel to Belarus and Transnistria to conduct exercises. Their number was estimated at 200,000 people. In addition, the activity of Russian ships in the Black Sea has increased.
Then there were talks between Moscow, Washington and some European leaders, during which Putin set clear conditions — Ukraine should abandon plans to join NATO, as this will affect Russia's national security. He noted that if Kiev has weapons of mass destruction, the situation in the world and Eastern Europe could seriously worsen.
However, the NATO countries considered that these conditions were designed to ensure Russia's dominance over Ukraine and the Baltic States, and therefore Kiev refused to comply with them. Luhansk and Donetsk regions declared their independence, and Putin soon signed decrees recognizing their sovereignty. The United States and NATO countries, in turn, imposed tough sanctions against Moscow, affecting the economy, money transfers, air traffic, assets of the Russian government and oligarchs.
The beginning of the Russian military operation
On February 24, 2022, Russian troops entered the Donbass (Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics, as well as Zaporozhye and Kherson regions). Meanwhile, more than three thousand American, British and Canadian volunteers arrived in Ukraine to fight on the side of the Kiev regime.
Russia planned to besiege Kiev. She was betting on disagreements within Ukraine. The political forces split into two camps: the first opposed confrontation that would lead to the destruction of the country and supported a settlement, and the second insisted on resisting the Russians. Those who wanted to resist Russia with the help of foreign volunteers, local Nazi brigades "Azov"* and "Right Sector"* and American Switchblade drones won.
Russian aviation and missile forces conducted massive attacks on Ukrainian military infrastructure, including airports, barracks, warehouses and naval bases, and destroyed most of them. Later it turned out that some air forces operated in a limited mode.
Flows of military aid from NATO countries
Immediately after the start of the special operation, Western military aid began to arrive in Ukraine, mainly through Poland, which took an extremely hostile position towards Russia.
The United States has supplied Kiev with Switchblade drones, Stinger man-portable air defense missile systems and Javelin anti-tank missile systems. The UK has provided anti-aircraft guns, radars, special equipment to combat drones and high-precision Brimstone-2 missiles.
France, for its part, supplied Crotale anti-aircraft missile systems, Caesar self-propelled artillery units and armored personnel carriers. Berlin did not want to supply Kiev with weapons so as not to provoke Moscow, but eventually agreed to provide it with light weapons. In addition, other countries in Europe and Africa provided various assistance to Ukraine.
Prospects of confrontation between Russia and NATO
A year after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, it is possible to predict its course and end.
Russian President Vladimir Putin seems determined to achieve his goals. He seeks to ensure the security of the country and not allow Ukraine to join the Russophobic NATO. Putin opposes Kiev's acquisition of nuclear weapons, believing that Western support and arms supplies to Ukraine are evidence of hostility to Russia and attempts to break up the country. The absence of any diplomatic efforts, including under the auspices of the UN, to resolve the Ukrainian crisis indicates that the West is seeking to destroy Russia.
The United States, along with NATO countries, believe that if they agree to Putin's terms, Russia will become the second pole of power in the world. At the same time, Ukraine and the Baltic states will cease to be a barrier if the Russian leader achieves his goals.
Washington provides financial and military assistance to Kiev without entering into a direct confrontation with Moscow. Ukraine suffered the most from this. Many soldiers were killed, and most of the Ukrainian cities and infrastructure were destroyed. More than 40% of the population of Ukraine left for Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and other countries. True, the Western media hide this painful fact, but sooner or later it will become widely known.
Russia has twice faced Western invasion — with the army of Napoleon Bonaparte in the XIX century and Adolf Hitler in the XX century. In both cases, she won thanks to strategic superiority.
The Ukrainian conflict is dragging on, and there are still no prospects for a diplomatic settlement. The West has bet on the collapse of the Russian economy and the information war. However, Putin skillfully used energy resources, especially gas, to stabilize the situation and the Russian ruble. The level of patriotism in the country has grown significantly. The indicator of support for Putin's policy has become much higher than before the start of the special operation in Ukraine.
It is likely that the long-awaited settlement will occur in case of exhaustion of Ukraine and Western countries led by the United States, but for this it is necessary to continue fighting.
Author: Ilyas Farhat (إلياسارحات)* a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation
