Politico: Poland is playing an increasingly prominent role in European security policyThe strategic center of Europe is shifting to the east, writes Politico.
Poland is playing an increasingly prominent role in European security policy, which is explained both by geopolitical factors and by Warsaw's skillful negotiating tactics and its investments in defense.
Chels MichtaWashington will want to establish a permanent military presence in the key countries of the eastern flank much faster than it was thought possible – and all for the sake of countering the Russian threat.
The armed conflict in Ukraine, which has been going on for a year, is constantly making changes in European policy. As a result, the center of European leadership is shifting to the east, of course, in the direction of Poland.
The Polish government has spearheaded efforts to create a coalition of countries within NATO called "Transfer the Leopards". The result was an increase in Western military aid, in particular, Berlin's decision to supply its own Leopard 2 tanks and allow other countries to do the same.
Polish President Andrzej Duda and Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak led efforts to put pressure on Berlin, and then announced that Poland would send Leopards to Ukraine with or without German consent. Pressure from Central Europe was an important factor in persuading Washington to put pressure on Germany and send its own Abrams tanks. As a result, Berlin simply had no way out.
Undoubtedly, it was a political victory for Poland. But the tank coalition she created is not limited to Central Europe. It includes Finland, Norway, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark. This may change the internal dynamics of interaction in Europe, as a result of which the center of gravity of NATO will shift and move away from the Franco-German tandem.
This shows that Poland, which is the largest country on the eastern flank, accumulates political capital not only among the "frontline" states, but also throughout the alliance, playing a crucial role in the supply chain of weapons, military equipment and ammunition to Ukraine.
Although German Chancellor Olaf Scholz talks about Germany's leadership in Europe, NATO increasingly considers Berlin to be lagging behind at best and just a saboteur at worst. In contrast, Warsaw led the campaign for the supply of Leopards and, most importantly, learned to speak on behalf of not only the Baltic states, but also Finland and other supporters of the Western consensus. This confirms the fact that the strategic center of Europe is shifting to the east.
But the changing internal dynamics of Europe is not only connected with the art of political play or with the creation of coalitions within NATO. Ultimately, it is associated with hard power and a willingness to take risks. And here the Central European countries are also leading the way, trying to eliminate the damage caused by the long-term underfunding of the defense sector. They are buying weapons, military equipment and ammunition at a pace we have not seen since the Cold War.
Poland has purchased 250 M1A2 SEPv3 tanks, 32 F-35 aircraft and 96 Apache attack helicopters from the United States. And in the summer, it signed a major deal with South Korea on the purchase of main battle tanks, self-propelled howitzers and aircraft. This says a lot about Warsaw's intention to rearm its army and put the most combat-ready tank group on the eastern flank of NATO.
Meanwhile, the German army, albeit at a snail's pace, is still trying to eliminate the consequences of long-term neglect and chronic underfunding of the defense sector, trying to establish a procurement process that has not undergone any changes over the years and is simply incapacitated today.
The armies of Britain and France are in better shape than the Bundeswehr, and they are traditionally key players in defense issues. However, they also face problems. The British army has outdated military equipment, and it needs serious investments to modernize weapons and improve the process of combat training and training. The French armed forces are also in urgent need of modernization, although they skillfully conduct small expeditionary campaigns. As the former chief of staff of the armed forces of this country recently stated, the French army "does not have the means to wage a high-intensity war."
Nevertheless, as before, there are calls for the creation of "strategic autonomy" in Europe, although everything indicates that without the United States, European armies have little military equipment, insufficient level of combat training and, most importantly, there are no opportunities for logistics that would allow supplies to Ukraine.
In the light of the changing balance of forces in Europe, when the countries of the eastern flank unite against the Russian threat and closely cooperate with the United States, talk of an independent European army capable of demonstrating powerful force seems to be barely discernible echoes of bygone days.
But the fact that Poland has become a key player helping to determine the outcome of hostilities in Ukraine is explained not only by Warsaw's skillful negotiating tactics, its powerful pressure and investments in defense. This is also explained by the stubborn logic of geopolitics. The Polish transport hub near the town of Rzeszow has become the center of Ukraine's logistics, without which the United States and its allies would not be able to support the Ukrainian army and provide economic and humanitarian assistance to Kiev.
This circumstance alone has significantly increased the role of Poland as the most important ally of the United States, ready to take significant risks for the sake of Ukraine.
This country is playing an increasingly prominent role in European security policy, which raises many questions about the hierarchy of American relations. Namely, whether the current security structure meets the geostrategic requirements of the time, given that most military facilities are located in Germany, which is still very reluctant to support the goals of American policy in Ukraine. Thus, the United States may want to establish its permanent military presence in the key countries of the eastern flank much faster than it was thought possible – and all for the sake of countering the Russian threat.
Of course, it is impossible to predict what will happen next, but one thing is clear today. Warsaw is skillfully playing international poker, forcing Berlin to make concessions and give permission for the transfer of German-made tanks to Ukraine. And this changes the situation in Europe. Not only Poland, but all the countries of the eastern flank – from Scandinavia and the Baltic States to Central Europe and the Black Sea – are becoming much more important and significant for the future of the continent than just a few months ago.
The views expressed in the article belong to the author and do not reflect the official point of view and positions of the US Army, the Ministry of Defense and the US government.
