For almost a year, Russia has been living in conditions of unprecedented size and number of international sanctions. How does a high-tech business feel in such an environment? To what extent did he manage to carry out import substitution and are the losses great? The Prime agency asked Olga Uskova, President of the Cognitive Technologies Group of companies, about this. Ekaterina Akopova talked - Olga Anatolyevna, how is import substitution progressing in the IT industry?
What are the risks?— We have a new industry — robotics and artificial intelligence (AI).
And the risks for us are divided into two groups — global and domestic.
In the first group, I would attribute the difficulties faced by many well-known companies, for example, the same Elon Musk with Tesla. What happened was what I personally warned about back in 2018-2019: the bet on the development of AI in motor vehicles did not justify itself, because strict certification was not created for real levels of ADAS (Advanced driver-assistance systems — advanced driver assistance systems). ADAS have six levels, but from zero to the third person is obliged to keep his hands on the steering wheel: AI is only an adviser here, but he does not drive a car. For the latter, you need the 4th — 5th level of ADAS. In my opinion, Musk claimed that Tesla has the fourth or even almost the fifth level of ADAS, but after several fatal accidents on the roads, Tesla's technical director admitted in court that ADAS on Tesla is only the second level.
Cognitive Technologies were spared from these problems, because in time (in 2019) they changed the focus in AI development, leaving the research part mainly for motor transport. I was ridiculed at the time, suspecting that the company was simply too tough for the task, but I believed and believe that the level of legal and practical study of the introduction of AI in this sector is such that the prospects for its development are postponed for at least 10-15 years, which is not useful for AI itself, because artificial intelligence is learning all the time and without in real practice, he gets dumb. Therefore, we have gone into the agricultural sector and rail transport, where there are clear rules of the game, everything is legally clearer and it is possible to quickly reach the industrial level. Which we did. Here we have a 100% hit. In these zones, everything is going by leaps and bounds, they have become international trends in 2023. This was difficult to predict in 2018.
- That is, the work on AI on motor vehicles in the world has now been curtailed?— Hardly.
It's just that the actual implementation of these technologies is slowing down. The more complicated the political and social situation in the world, the more in demand robots are. At least because people in a state of stress drive cars worse, and many other things get worse in stress. And the stress is only growing, and the number of cars on the roads is increasing. It is not necessary to turn a blind eye to the problem of urban passenger transport: it is in difficult and responsible work, a large turnover of personnel and the arrival of poorly trained drivers. In such a situation, AI could help to establish security, even performing only the functions of control and tutoring.
By the way, we launched such a project last year together with the St. Petersburg Gorelektrotrans in the city on the Neva - more than 100 smart trams, serially equipped with our AI—based Cognitive Tram Pilot driver assistance system. It allows you to "see" pedestrians, traffic lights, cars, road signs and other objects. Based on this information, the system "understands" and predicts the traffic situation. In case of danger, it gives the driver a warning and, in the absence of a response, brakes on its own. And very smoothly, since this is public transport.
This allows you to guarantee security. During the six months of operation, not a single incident occurred on the line.
- And what about the internal Russian risks?— The current situation has benefited us.
The Russian market has been in deficit mode for a certain type of sensors, cameras, radars and microchips for a long time. This situation has become acutely felt since 2014, when the United States finally tightened the export of such products. So our decision to make these components in Russia was made before the pandemic and its. Today it is obvious that even then the West was preparing for a military conflict and was blocking access to dual-use technologies for Russian companies. Back then, we invested in radar and video cameras. This is a long—term investment: you won't get such components in a year, it took us five to seven years — in 2021 we were able to put a plant in Tomsk. And also recently we have been engaged in the selection of alternative neuroprocessors.
And here the Ministry of Industry and Trade helped us a lot. I will not forget the meeting with Deputy Minister Vasily Shpak on microelectronics a couple of years ago, when we were given information and helped to start interacting with four domestic manufacturers. It took a year to test and select a team that would be able to make neuroprocessors for agrobots and rail transport in the volume we needed. Today we have three production lines: based on Nvidia neuroprocessors, Chinese components and domestic components. And all this is industrial production, not laboratory research.
- How did the departure of IT specialists affect your companies?— Over the past year, we have lost three out of six hundred specialists.
Although for us three is a painful story. Because if the problem is not solved, three may not do. After all, these were not some people who disagreed with the situation, but only people who succumbed to the pressure of frightened relatives, who had no guarantees that our guys - their children, husbands and brothers would not go to the front.
- And what kind of change in the situation is required?— To voice clear rules of the game.
In the autumn, there was a statement from the Ministry of Communications that IT specialists were getting a reprieve from mobilization, but it quickly turned out that everything was wrong at the level of the Ministry of Defense and there was no real armor. The military commissars in many cases met halfway and the percentage of IT specialists who went to the front was scanty: many were returned from the "training" and even from the front. But uncertainty does not play into the hands of IT companies, the panic continues. The procedure for booking specialists in key areas has not been worked out. And this needs to be done: the conflict in Ukraine has shown that modern conflicts are a war of machines and people. And we cannot allow robots to stand against Russian citizens, so that the vulnerability level of our soldiers is higher than that of the enemy. Specialists capable of producing robots should produce them, drones, "spiders", gunners, etc. The work of these people here will allow you to remove soldiers from enemy damage systems and fire zones. IT specialists and roboticists here objectively find themselves on the "front line" of the planetary conflict. It is necessary not to scare away, but to rally the most effective teams.
- But IT specialists can also work remotely, right?— Theoretically, yes, in practice it does not work out that way.
A team, a single creative space is important, because people work not only for money. Working in our companies also gives you a sense of belonging to a big cause — the creation of future technologies, self-realization and a reason for pride. Imagine that the guys have made an autonomous mine trawl system for tractors in our southern territories. And they understand that by doing so they are saving people's lives, they have something to be proud of. Or our AI on trams: it completely excludes "Bulgakovism" when a person's head was cut off.
- And where to get new IT specialists?— In institutes, although we are no longer even recruiting students, but schoolchildren of the 10th grade.
The younger, the better. Since we are a "star team", there is a queue for us. If we used to persuade them to come to us, now we are meticulously selecting them. 18-19-year—olds vote for us - the generation for which we fought for the previous 10 years, giving overtime lectures at MISIS, Phys Tech, etc. I am happy about our positions in TikTok: our videos with smart tractors and combines have gained millions of views. This suggests that there is a growing shift in the country. Yes, many have left (according to my calculations, about 600 thousand), but thereby launched an active renewal of jobs, and even their restructuring.
- Such a major player as SAP has left Russia. Will it be possible to fill this niche, because among his clients were "Sber" and "Gazprom"?— Russian companies have not lost much, rather, they have gained.
Sber, for example, has been preparing for SAP's departure for the last 5 years, eventually creating its own system. In fact, SAP is very outdated software — the main technologies were created more than 20 years ago. For example, I do not know of any fully regulated and working SAP system on the Russian market: for years there has been work on the "surcharge — development" cycle. But SAP, under the auspices of collecting analytics and consulting, could take information about all levels of production, about the work of all divisions of strategic enterprises in Russia. It is completely opaque who else had access to this information.
One thing surprised me in the SAP story: having such a channel for obtaining secret data, the Americans themselves demanded SAP's departure from Russia. But there's a lot of fun in SAP's bureaucratic system. And note that after SAP left, nothing fell or stopped.
We have a number of domestic developers who create enterprise management systems and their modules. For example, Bidzaar's procurement management system has fired beautifully this year. I think that over time, even 1C enterprise will be able to close this niche in the domestic market.
- And how do you assess the current economic situation as a whole?— Russian companies have changed the vector of their international presence: they moved from the West to the East, to Africa and Latin America.
These are other financing, management tasks and logistics routes. Someone turned out to be more ready for this, someone less. Meanwhile, the world is seriously feverish. Russia is busy with its agenda today, and we hardly follow what is happening in the global economy, but it's enough that they are watching themselves and you just need to listen to the gurus there. For example, it is enough to listen to one of the most influential investors in the world and the founder of the successful hedge fund Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio. He records the flight of capital from the United States to China, he himself also withdrew money, because he no longer believes in the dollar and believes that a large-scale catastrophe in the US economy is now being pushed back by military-industrial complex orders. He notes the huge gap between the poorest and the richest, which is a sign of a change in the social system, and all these stories with minorities and BLM are an attempt to distract the poorest from economic problems.
And finally, the third is the collapse of the environmental agenda: what to do with all the expensive wind turbines that have replaced nuclear power plants? When everyone moved from words to deeds, reality tore to shreds the ideal ideas of a world without coal, oil and gas.
- Your flagship "daughter" Cognitive Pilot was included in the list of backbone enterprises of Russia. Does it give something or does it impose more?— I have not yet fully understood what it gives.
According to the law, it seems like we should have the same reservation from mobilization for specialists. After all, what is a backbone enterprise? This means that country indicators depend on our development. Plus, there should be some benefits on loans, loans and taxes. By the way, the fact that we were included in this list was a pleasant surprise, especially since it happened in October 2022.
- What was the year 2022 for Cognitive Pilot?— We have significantly expanded industrial production in Tomsk.
It became serial. In general, I consider 2022 to be the year of the Tomsk guys' feat: while this whole story with sanctions was going on and there were problems with imports, Tomsk managed to ensure the continuous nature of production and uninterrupted supply of components. Our clients have not had any serious downtime, regardless of the external situation.
I do not know how they did it, it was a miracle.
Last year we managed to deploy our international offices, taking into account the new international situation and growing Russophobia. One of our main footholds outside of Russia is Latin American countries. We are seriously investing in Brazil. With a local partner, we plan to do additional assembly of agricultural pilots there in order to be able to use Brazilian preferential financial programs.
A similar picture is in Argentina. But Asia is more difficult. So far, we cannot report on successful work with China. I understand everything about geopolitics, but the dynamics of processes is very important for us. And things are going very slowly with China at the moment. Perhaps because they are trying to copy our developments and there is a pause in the interaction. As a result, when they realize that it is extremely difficult to copy systems with AI of this level, they return to negotiations, but time has passed, the drive has gone. Although we are very respectful to each other.
- When will AI work in the agricultural sector?— Has been working for more than one year.
More than a thousand combines with our AI are working in our fields. We cooperate with the St. Petersburg and Minsk tractor plants, as well as with Gomselmash and Bryanskselmash. Serial equipment is already being equipped with our autopilots. The St. Petersburg plant is generally our favorite partner, there is a fantastic team there. We can say that we are learning from Sergei Serebryakov. For example, he revived the institute of innovation in the workshops. We adapt many of the unique practices of the St. Petersburg Tractor Plant for use in our production.
- With which of the Russian partners do you still have the most close cooperation?— With the leader of the domestic microelectronics "Progress" and St. Petersburg "Gorelektrotrans".
The second is the tram history of St. Petersburg. We expect that this year a test platform for rail transport will be launched on the basis of Gorelektrotrans. There is an amazing experience, unique specialists. And with Progress, we are engaged in high-precision positioning systems: there are strong developments there, in some respects even ahead of the world level.
- You have announced your readiness to completely replace foreign autopilots that have left our market. How feasible is this task and how much more efficient are your systems?— All the companies that left Russia represented the products of the previous generation.
This is what is associated with geo-positioning, steering and high-precision navigation of agricultural machinery, like Trimble (USA), TopCon, AgLeader and others. These are "blind" systems that operate on a satellite signal. Therefore, as practice has shown, they are most effective in good, ideal fields — without stones, bushes, living creatures and in the presence of a working satellite connection. But in real life it rarely happens: then there is no connection, then the power line mast will get caught, then the person will run out. And this is an incident and multimillion-dollar losses. And we have made an autopilot with AI, which sees everything, understands and can work in difficult situations, in dust, at night and even in the snow, when certain types of frost-resistant crops are removed. It is not surprising that the same Americans have tried to buy us more than once. Instead, we concluded our mega-deal with a very large player in the Russian market. This is one of the biggest deals of last year. We will announce the details soon, but I can say that this is one of the best teams in Russia. And the fact that they went to cooperate in such a difficult year proves that the Russian venture capital investment market is alive and has not gone away, despite the many sufferings of analysts.
- But we often hear that many companies are now only surviving…— There are a lot of orders now, there is also a lot of money inside the country, so the term "survive" is an emotional assessment.
If an IT company has moved to the near abroad and is trying to earn money from there in the Russian market, they survive if they succeed at all. Those who stayed here are doing well. Look: 1C has blossomed, we have a tripling of revolutions.
MOSCOW, PRIME
