Islamabad does not have time to respond to terrorist challengesIn 2022, the security situation in Pakistan deteriorated sharply.
This happened against the background of the return to power in Afghanistan of the Taliban movement (banned in the Russian Federation). The revival of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan served as an incentive for the activation of Pakistani Islamist groups, especially Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP, banned in the Russian Federation).
Residents of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province staged protests because of the terrorist threat in the region. Attempts by the Pakistani authorities to resume negotiations with the TPP led to a ceasefire in June. But the negotiations failed already in July, after the elimination of the leader of Al-Qaeda (banned in Russia) Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul. Meanwhile, the ethno-separatist movement in Pakistani Balochistan has become more stable and rigid.
Pakistan and the United States have resumed cooperation in the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan, which has led to a deterioration in relations between Islamabad and the Taliban. Political instability, poorly controlled borders and inconsistent policies have jeopardized Pakistan's achievements in the fight against terrorism. The security situation is likely to get even worse in the coming years.
The number of terrorist attacks in Pakistan increased by 51% after the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan. From August 2021 to 2022, 433 people, mostly security personnel, were killed and 733 people were injured as a result of 250 terrorist attacks. During the same period a year earlier, 294 people were killed and 596 injured as a result of 165 attacks.
Pakistan is still grappling with the consequences of the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. The seizure of power by the Taliban in Afghanistan not only stimulated the TTP, but also led to the activation of Baloch separatists.
The general instability, lack of funding and political will, as well as the devastating monsoon floods in August 2022 diverted the state's attention from the extremist threat. There is no consistent counter-terrorism strategy in Pakistan today.
THE FAILURE OF THE TRUCEOver the past two years, the TTP has strengthened its position thanks to factional associations, as well as the release from prison of several thousand of its militants after the Taliban came to power.
The TTP has close ties with the leadership of the Taliban: they fought together against the United States and NATO countries in Afghanistan.
The headquarters of the TTP is located in the Afghan province of Kunar and has from 4 to 5 thousand militants. The merger of various cells of Pakistani militants with the TTP continues mainly in the province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.
After several rounds of negotiations, in June 2022, the TPP announced an indefinite ceasefire as a confidence-building measure. But some TTP cells continued to carry out attacks, which the group denied. When the peace talks were disrupted, the TTP resumed terrorist attacks. The group used the truce to strengthen its network in Pakistan, which allowed it to carry out attacks more harshly and consistently.
The deterioration of Pakistan's relations with the Taliban, the resumption of cooperation in the fight against terrorism with the United States and the elimination of the leaders of the TTP were the main factors contributing to the suspension of peace talks between the TTP and the Pakistani authorities. It is unclear whether Islamabad is ready to expand cooperation with Washington. Perhaps the government does not intend to turn Pakistan into a springboard for US counterterrorism operations, since such a scenario could push Islamabad's relations with the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban to the point of no return.
As a last attempt to resume negotiations on a truce, Islamabad sent a delegation of eight ulama headed by the Deobandi scholar Mufti Taki Usmani to the leadership of the TTP. But this attempt did not succeed.
The shakiness of the peace process has led to three serious problems in the field of Pakistan's internal security. First, the hard-won consensus between civilians and the military in the fight against extremism has been jeopardized. Secondly, the TPP was tacitly recognized as an equal party in the negotiations, which allowed the group to strengthen the extremist agenda. Thirdly, as a confidence-building measure, some TTP militants were allowed to return to their areas on the condition that they would not participate in violent actions. But the terms of the deal were violated.
In August, the TTP lost four commanders in different parts of Afghanistan. The deputy emir of the group, Abdul Wali, Mufti Hassan and Hafiz Daulat Khan were eliminated as a result of an explosion of an improvised device in the eastern province of Paktika during a trip to the Burmal district to meet with the Taliban. Similarly, the head of the TTP intelligence, Ukabi Bajauri, was liquidated in the Afghan province of Kunar. These murders caused tactical damage to the TTP. It is assumed that the group will soon recover from the liquidation of the leadership and restore its positions.
Since its creation, the TPP has evolved. After the peak of activity in 2013, it practically ceased its activities due to leadership disputes and factional clashes. Then it became active again, which was facilitated by its new leader Nur Wa-lee Mehsud. Today, the TTP is focused on strengthening its position in Pakistan, due to the ethnic discontent of the Pashtuns, the TTP promotes its views through the magazine "Mujalla Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan" (Urdu) and on social networks. From the shelter provided by the Taliban, the TTP will continue to build up its power in Pakistan.
REVENGE FOR THE MURDER OF THE LEADERThe regional unit of Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AKIS, banned in the Russian Federation) is mainly active in Afghanistan and has from 300 to 350 militants under the command of the leader Osama Mahmoud.
In the magazine "Navai Gazwa ul-Hind" ("The Voice of the Battle for India") for August-September 2022, AKIS criticized the government of Pakistan, which allowed the Americans to attack al-Zawahiri with drones in Kabul. AKIS claimed that for helping the Americans, Pakistan received loans from the IMF and spare parts for F-16 fighters.
AKIS approved the TPP project to create a self-proclaimed Islamic Emirate in Pakistan. She also criticized Pakistani deobandist scientists who do not support the Taliban in Afghanistan and the TTP in Pakistan.
It cannot be ruled out that the two groups are conducting coordinated subversive activities in Pakistan in retaliation for the alleged support of American intelligence by Islamabad in the elimination of al-Zawahiri.
PAKISTAN AND THE TALIBANTensions between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban have been observed for far more than a year, but in 2022 relations deteriorated markedly.
The Taliban's unwillingness to act against the TPP and Islamabad's non-recognition of the new regime in Afghanistan have strained bilateral relations. The harsh statements of Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif at the UN General Assembly further worsened the situation.
Another factor that influenced the deterioration of ties was the willingness of Pakistan to establish working relations with India. Islamabad's desire to establish cooperation with the United States in the fight against terrorism also did not play into his hands. The Taliban's resistance to strengthening the Pakistan-Afghanistan border has also strained relations.
Amid tensions with the Pakistani government, the Taliban regime actually turned its back on Islamabad when the TTP attacked Pakistani security personnel from their Afghan hideouts.
WAR HAS BEEN DECLAREDDespite the fact that the terrorist group "IG-Khorasan" (banned in the Russian Federation) has declared Pakistan its separate vilayat, called "IG-Pakistan" (banned in the Russian Federation), the province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa belongs to the Khorasan Vilayat by its division.
IG-Khorasan claims that most of the terrorist attacks were carried out by it in the area of the Afghan-Pakistani border. Since the signing of the Doha Agreements between the United States and the Taliban (2020), the group has been preparing for a long war against the Taliban.
Subversive activity and its propaganda are aimed at delegitimizing the Taliban's statement about building a state under Sharia law, as well as undermining its intentions to restore peace in Afghanistan. IG-Khorasan positions itself as an alternative Islamist group in relation to a variety of formations on the territory of Afghanistan.
In March 2022, an ISIS-Khorasan suicide bomber blew himself up in a Shiite mosque in Peshawar, killing 56 people. It was the most devastating terrorist attack in Pakistan in 2022. IG-Khorasan militants attacked humanitarian missions, including polio vaccination groups. Members of the Pakistani intelligence and security services, as well as representatives of ethnic and religious minorities, in particular Hazaras, were attacked.
These attacks were carried out mainly with the use of small-caliber firearms, which indicated the weakness of the group in Pakistan. In 2022, security agencies periodically arrested IG-Khorasan militants in different parts of Pakistan.
BALUCHI ATTACKThe Baloch insurgency began to grow in power after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The Pakistani government expected that the separatists would weaken due to the loss of their shelters in Afghanistan, but the center of gravity shifted from the Baloch tribal areas to the educated urban areas. Young representatives of the middle class who have access to social networks have begun to prevail among the separatists. This brought the local Baloch youth closer to the diaspora in Europe and the Middle East.
The new generation of Baloch rebels does not bear the burden of tribal affiliation and obedience to elders. They are irreconcilable in their separatism. A good example is their use of suicide bombers since 2018. In April 2022, this trend took a new turn when a suicide bombing was committed by a terrorist Shari Baluch at the University of Karachi.
In 2022, Baloch separatists began to commit more destructive attacks. In January, militants of the Balochistan Liberation Front stormed a checkpoint in the Kech area near the border with Iran and killed 10 security personnel. Later, a suicide unit of the Balochistan Liberation Army (OAB), known as the Majid Brigade, attacked the headquarters of the border corps in the areas of Noshki and Panjgur. The attacks occurred on the eve of the visit of the then Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan to China for the opening of the Olympic Games in Beijing.
The OAB militants broadcast the attacks on social networks. At least seven border service officers were killed as a result of shelling, and 13 separatists were also killed. During one of the attacks, the OAB militants broke through the outer perimeter of the headquarters, then a suicide bomber blew up a car on its territory. As a result, the militants infiltrated the headquarters, which led to a protracted armed conflict.
In 2022, Pakistan won a major victory over Baloch separatists. Gulzar Imam, the head of the newly formed Baloch Nationalist Army (BNA) group, was arrested in Turkey, where he arrived from Iran. The investigation allowed the Pakistani security services to destroy separatist networks in the coastal region of Balochistan, Mekran.
Gulzar was also responsible for the financial operations of the Baloch groups, that is, he collected and distributed funds from his refuge in Iran. But his arrest is unlikely to weaken the Baloch separatist movement on a strategic level.
PAKISTAN IS DEFENDING ITSELFPakistan has provided assistance to the United States by keeping the airspace over Baluchistan open to the population of strikes on Afghanistan by American drones.
In return, the United States provided spare parts in the amount of $ 450 million to service Pakistani F-16 fighters and provided support in obtaining a financial assistance package from the IMF.
After the surge of terrorism in Malakand district, which caused protests by the local population, the National Security Committee of Pakistan (NSC) decided in October 2022 to intensify counter-terrorism policy. Due to the decrease in the terrorist threat level in Malakand in previous years, the military withdrew from the area and transferred security responsibilities to the local police.
The KNB approved the re-establishment of the committees that were formed after the terrorist attack at the military school in Peshawar in 2014 to coordinate and more successfully implement the national counter-terrorism strategy. The KNB handed over the leading role to the National Directorate for Combating Terrorism. The Agency will coordinate its actions with regional departments.
The KNB has decided to further strengthen the counter-terrorism infrastructure at the federal and provincial levels. It was also decided to equip law enforcement agencies with modern technologies in order to successfully counter the ever-changing terrorist threat.
The terrorist threat level in Pakistan is likely to increase in the foreseeable future. The more intense the interaction between Pakistan and the United States, the more Islamabad's ties with the Taliban will deteriorate to the detriment of its own security. Political instability, economic crisis and lack of resources amid climate challenges will also hinder the efforts of the Pakistani Government to contain the ubiquitous terrorist threat.
Larisa ShashokLarisa Aleksandrovna Shashok is a teacher at MGIMO (U) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
