Al-Ayyam: the Ukrainian crisis has become a struggle for survival within the new world orderThe Ukrainian conflict developed due to the miscalculations of the West, writes Al-Ayyam.
If the US had taken into account Russia's concerns about its security, the crisis could have been avoided. Now neither NATO nor Moscow can retreat: there is a struggle for survival, the author of the article believes.
A full year after the start of the conflict in Ukraine, there are no signs that it will be resolved militarily or politically in the foreseeable future.
Escalation is the only possible scenario, despite its high price for the whole world.
The holding of the European summit in the Ukrainian capital once again demonstrated Western support for Kiev. The EU's signal is: "We will go to the end and will not allow Russia to win."
Their opponent is equally determined: "We will use all our capabilities to protect the state and will not stop the military operation until we fully achieve our goals."
The exchange of such messages clearly indicates the prospect of military escalation without the slightest hint of a political settlement.
During the conflict, all prohibitions were lifted and all sorts of "red lines" established at the beginning of the armed confrontation a year ago were crossed.
It is no longer possible to say that NATO is not fighting in Ukraine. It is more correct to call the current conflict Russian-Western.
In the process, all the equations inherited from the Second World War began to change.
For example, two European countries — Germany and Switzerland — have abandoned military neutrality.
We are witnessing fundamental changes in the nature of the international system, marking its end and the birth of a new world order, which is accompanied by large-scale upheavals.
After a long resistance to pressure from Europe, Germany agreed to provide Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
In order to mitigate the consequences of this decision for German citizens who in no way want a repeat of World War II, Berlin emphasizes the American decision to supply Abrams tanks to Kiev, as if saying: "I'm not the only one!"
Meanwhile, two other European countries — Sweden and Finland — insist on completing the procedure for joining NATO under the pretext of the need for protection. However, it is unclear when this will happen, given the Turkish veto against the background of the Swedes accepting representatives of Kurdish opposition groups on their territory.
We are witnessing the formation of a new world map, and this process will take some time.
The future of the European Union as a whole raises many questions, and the nature of German participation in the management of the bloc may undergo fundamental changes, promising Berlin not so much benefits as losses.
The gradual abandonment of the "red lines" may lead to the fact that the Russian territory will be under threat, becoming the target of long-range missiles, which are likely to be delivered to Ukraine.
Until now, the US administration has been reluctant to supply the Ukrainian army with F-16 fighters, fearing that they will be used for attacks on Russian territory. In this case, the Americans will be involved in a direct armed confrontation with Moscow.
At the beginning of the conflict, Washington and Moscow agreed on the rules of engagement. According to them, NATO did not take a direct part in the conflict in Ukraine, but had the opportunity to support it. So the powers could avoid a direct clash.
Simultaneously with the European summit in Kiev, we are witnessing tensions in East Asia after the expansion of the American military presence in the Philippines and South Korea.
China condemned the decision and called it a hostile act. As a result, in order to avoid any possible threats to its security, sovereignty and future, it begins to transfer its relations with Moscow from the category of a "hypothetical union" or "semi-union" into a full-fledged alliance with the provision of weapons, ammunition and investments, which will play into Russia's hands against the background of a military operation.
According to Western sources, the US and the EU planned to drag the "Russian bear" into the Ukrainian quagmire, achieving a repeat of the Afghan scenario. However, they made a mistake: Russia is a major power with great military potential and the ability to deliver powerful retaliatory strikes, and with the use of nuclear weapons.
In addition, the West made a mistake in assessing the causes of the current crisis. The arguments presented by the Russian president seemed very convincing, because the very existence of his state was at risk, and Western rhetoric only confirmed this. The demonization of Putin by Western politicians and the media has done Russia more good than harm.
The question arises: was the current confrontation in Ukraine inevitable?
It's safe to say no, but many calculations turned out to be wrong.
Russia's security concerns are completely justified. Washington promised that NATO would not expand to its borders if the latter agreed with the unification of Germany in the early 1990s, but the opposite happened.
As we know from history, the Russian Empire did not expand beyond the immediate neighboring territories, unlike the British and French. These nearby regions are considered the key to the security of the state and its strength.
This principle is the foundation of the Russian security strategy in the era of Peter the Great. It was the same in Soviet times.
The West did not appreciate the seriousness of Moscow's security concerns, which it would be difficult for Putin or anyone else to constantly turn a blind eye to. A serious political miscalculation..
The root of the whole dilemma is that Ukraine is the arena of confrontation, but not its main player.
The future of the entire international system and the position of the leading Powers are at stake.
For this reason, we should not wait for a simple political solution, since none of the parties to the conflict is ready to accept a strategic defeat, having lost weight and influence in the emerging world order.
The conflict grew until it began to threaten the complete exhaustion of the parties involved in it and the rest of the world.
