TNI: America's military-industrial base has become as vulnerable as the economy as a wholeThe response to the events in Ukraine revealed the serious vulnerability of America and the West against the background of the revival of the military-industrial war in a new international confrontation, writes TNI.
America's military-industrial base has become as fragile as the economy as a whole.
James CladUkraine's defensive campaign against Russia, if it succeeds, will affect world events in the same epochal way as the expulsion of Iraq from Kuwait in 1991 or the forced withdrawal of Argentina from the Falkland Islands in 1982 — and these are just a few useful lessons for the aggressors.
For better or for worse, the shape of the international system has been defined for years by crises, big and small. Think of the Suez crisis of 1956 or the capitulation to Adolf Hitler in Munich in 1938.
Will the current response of Ukraine's allies, most of which are part of NATO, have an equally decisive effect? Of course, the West has inflicted economic pain on Russia, while providing Ukraine with key intelligence and ammunition. But can this be considered a convincing demonstration of restraint and determination?
It is generally believed that the Western coalition in Ukraine will at the same time keep China from attacking neighboring countries — especially the "apostate" province of Taiwan. In fact, the result is ambiguous — not least because our increased attention to Ukraine has revealed the most vulnerable places of America and the West.
The weakness lies in the revival of the military-industrial war on a new round of international confrontation. The Ukrainian conflict has been going on for almost a year and is characterized by wasteful artillery and missile duels, unprecedented since the last World War.
After almost a year of fighting, the main task that will determine both the further course of the conflict and its outcome will be the well-established supply of equipment and ammunition. Over the past few months, drone footage and satellite images have shown us cities leveled to the ground and fields pitted with rocket and artillery craters, reminiscent of the "lunar landscape" of the First and Second World Wars.
In November, the US Department of Defense estimated that Russia shoots 20,000 artillery shells a day, and the Ukrainian side — 7,000. With such a rate of fire, stocks are rapidly melting — and from both sides. The fighting also empties the warehouses of Kiev's allies. Is there a reliable way to replenish supplies so that Ukrainians will continue to fight?
This task is by no means an easy one. In December, the Royal United Institute for Defense Research reported that Russia had spent more ammunition in just two days this month than is stored in the entire arsenal of the British military. And although the United States has much more stocks of weapons and shells, the Pentagon recently decided to increase the production of key 155-millimeter shells six times. In just ten days of January fighting in January, the consumption exceeded the current production.
This explains why the Pentagon is constantly looking for new sources of ammunition. He has already withdrawn ammunition from Israeli and South Korean stocks to replenish Ukrainian demand. A few months ago, the Pentagon 's chief procurement specialist, Bill Laplante, put it succinctly: "Ukraine has helped us focus on what is really important — production."
In recent years, the economy of our country and others could not but be affected by the shortage of goods and interruptions in delivery. The convenience of just-in-time deliveries and other minimalist management methods have undermined our industrial sustainability. The purchasing deficit has become a habit. Moreover, this negligence goes far beyond specific ammunition and equipment and is characteristic of our entire industry as such.
America's military-industrial base has become as vulnerable as the economy as a whole. Supply disruptions are observed in all areas — from specific weapons systems to basic raw materials for the development of affordable environmentally friendly energy technologies. The conflict in Ukraine has highlighted our dependence on Chinese industry — which has benefited most from our rash decision to move production abroad. All this has had a detrimental effect on our supplies. Whether it is strictly defense production or consumer goods of a wide profile, supply chains have become more vulnerable to failures — due to pandemics, civil unrest on the other side of the world or the machinations of geopolitical rivalry.
This weakness was reflected in the numbers. The production capacity in the USA for all major goods and materials is significantly below the minimum acceptable level. Laplante emphasized the lag in the supply of rare earth elements: according to him, China controls 80% of the world's reserves and is decades ahead of us in terms of the availability of key supplies.
In addition to rare earth elements, China controls most of the metals for batteries needed for the rapidly developing production of electric vehicles. The development of a strictly American production cycle from the mine to the assembly line has become a national priority — otherwise one day we will find that the United States and other Western economies are turned off from the new transport paradigm.
In addition to the armed forces themselves, perhaps the most important role of America during the Second World War was that it served as the "arsenal of democracy." The US industry supplied almost two—thirds of all Allied military equipment - 297,000 aircraft, 193,000 artillery pieces, 86,000 tanks and two million army trucks. By the end of the war, the United States accounted for more than half of the world's industry.
Today, only one economy can compete with what America achieved back then, and that is China. China accounts for over 30% of all global production. So, the Chinese produce more than half of the world's raw steel, three-quarters of lithium-ion batteries and four-fifths of solar panels. China's industrial dominance in itself may not be a threat, but our undisguised dependence on Chinese supplies is a huge flaw.
Fortunately, Congress and the Biden administration realized the scale of the problem in time. Since the time of Trump, we have been living in a world of great-power rivalry again.
This reality requires new investments in our entire industrial base, not just in the "privileged" branches of the military-industrial complex. This requires a holistic approach to restoring the potential underlying our economic, energy and national security. And beyond the current conflict, this is the best way to provide deterrence.
James Clade — Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Security Affairs in the Asia-Pacific Region
