The conflict in Ukraine is changing the geopolitical landscape of EuropeThe Special Military Operation (SVO) in Ukraine, along with the scarcity of European arsenals and the weakness of European weapons, also showed the inconsistency of the political and military alliances that have developed in Europe.
Western unity on the situation around Ukraine has already begun to crumble. This was evidenced by disagreements between NATO member countries when discussing the issue of supplying armored vehicles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). As it became known in early February, under pressure from NATO allies, Germany decided to supply about 200 Leopard family tanks to the APU.
CHANGING THE BALANCE OF POWERThe balance of power in the European Union has changed significantly as a result of the proxy war in Ukraine.
The countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic states are much more involved in this conflict compared to Old Europe. Manichaean fears of Russia brought them closer to the United States and Britain after Brexit to a much greater extent than with allies in Western Europe.
Poland, the most powerful entity of the New Europe, invests heavily in defense, and this can quickly turn it into the leading military power of the EU. In 2022, Warsaw signed a major contract with South Korea for the purchase of weapons: heavy battle tanks, artillery and fighters for a total of $ 15 billion.
In addition, in December 2022, a contract was signed for the purchase of two tracking satellites from France for $ 500 million. At the same time, Poland is determined to take on an even more important role in European affairs.
For Germany, the leading economic power in Europe, the conflict is a particularly sensitive issue, and it constantly questions its own policy. Nevertheless, immediately after the start of the special operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine, Berlin announced an increase in military spending to more than 2% of GDP (as stipulated by NATO standards, which, however, the Europeans have not fulfilled for a long time). The government of Olaf Scholz decided to allocate $ 100 billion for military investments in 2022, while in 2021 the entire defense budget of the country was 47 billion.
In order not to stand aside, Emmanuel Macron said that the conflict in Ukraine has turned France into a "military economy" for a long time. He announced that he intends to ask Parliament to approve a new budget of 400 billion euros for the period 2024-2030 (in 2019-2025, this figure is 295 billion euros).
Of course, the "geopolitical earthquake" in Ukraine has caused tremors across the continent, and every European country is forced to reconsider its positions. Although everyone expresses commitment to union commitments, there is a noticeable sense of disorientation. Two months ago, Chancellor Scholz wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine that it was time for a turning point when Germany would take responsibility.
France and Germany were not ready for the conflict in Ukraine, while countries in eastern Europe immediately realized the stakes. The political cost of this contradiction is not yet quantifiable. Meanwhile, the balance of power in Europe is changing before our eyes, and now it is difficult to say whether France and Germany will be able to maintain their leadership in the political, economic, technological and military spheres.
CHANCELLOR UNDER PRESSURECurrently, Olaf Scholz is under increasing pressure from the allies, who together demanded to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine or allow other countries to re-export them.
Practice has shown that they have succeeded.
Washington is behind this campaign, where they are determined to hammer the last nails into the coffin of a possible German-Russian reconciliation and prevent the revival of the "Franco-German axis". The United States seeks to exclude a possible unified European response to the predatory subsidy law, adopted at the initiative of President Joseph Biden, and attempts to protect European industry. The economic stakes are very high here, since American subsidies can cause mass migration of European industry overseas.
On the very day when Macron and Scholz celebrated the 60th anniversary of the Elysee Treaty in Paris, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki attacked the German Chancellor in extremely harsh terms, threatening to create a "small coalition" of European countries if Germany did not agree to the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
The German Bundeswehr has been suffering from outdated and partially faulty equipment for many years. German defense contractor Rheinmetall AG announced in December 2022 that it was expanding ammunition production to eliminate supply bottlenecks. Separately, Rheinmetall is exploring the possibility of building an additional plant for the production of basic materials and components for ammunition in East Saxony.
PROBLEMS OF THE GERMAN MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEXRecently, amid increased attention to the supply of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, Rheinmetall AG has announced its readiness to meet the growing demand for military products and its intention to expand production.
The company called on the German government to finance the opening of another powder factory in Saxony in order to meet the growing demand for ammunition. The cost of the project will be 700-800 million euros.
In addition, the concern plans to put into operation a new line for the production of medium-caliber ammunition, and is also negotiating with the American corporation Lockheed Martin about the start of production of HIMARS systems at its base.
What problems can the German defense industry face? Germany imports resources necessary for various branches of the defense industry, in particular rare earth metals and noble gases. A significant part of them used to come from Russia.
Rheinmetall does not manufacture military equipment entirely on its own. For example, tank engines are assembled by MTU Friedrichshafen, which is currently making serious cuts and will not cope with the increase in the number of orders due to a shortage of personnel and production capacity. The manufacturer of tank tracks Diehl in 2022 was also forced to cut jobs and reduce production.
Another critical component – armored steel – is supplied by the Swedish steel company SSAB, which will not be able to increase supplies in the required volume. The German authorities have already partially taken measures and issued a permit for the production of steel to the Saarstahl plant. Nevertheless, this company cannot cope even with the current level of demand, because due to high energy prices, it had to reduce production volumes and transfer almost half of its employees to part-time work.
More than half of the volume of electricity in Germany is generated from renewable sources, the efficiency of which directly depends on climatic conditions, and therefore their use is always associated with certain risks. Nuclear energy provides slightly less than 4% of Germany's needs, but in April 2023 it is planned to close the last remaining nuclear power plants in the country. About 40% of the energy in Germany is generated by traditional power plants, which also use gas as fuel.
A reduction in energy supplies, taking into account the general unstable energy situation in Europe and Germany's obligations to export electricity to other countries, may negatively affect its energy balance.
In addition to all of the above, there is a shortage of qualified specialists in almost all sectors of the economy in Germany. In particular, Rheinmetall reported a shortage of armor steel welders and engineers.
The leaders of the German military-industrial complex are aware of the technical and organizational problems faced by the defense industry, and are already taking measures to eliminate them. However, the process of finding new suppliers of resources, employees, and concluding agreements will take at least a couple of years.
For the Russian industry, this promises a small head start in the development of its own military-industrial complex. Especially in those areas that help to gain an advantage in combat operations with the least losses – for example, through the use of unmanned systems. The main thing is to use this opportunity in time.
CONCLUSIONS AND PROSPECTSA year has passed since the beginning of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine.
As Moscow gains the upper hand on the battlefield, the specter of defeat haunts the United States and NATO, and Poland goes berserk. There comes a turning point when, as it seems to her, she can regain her "lost territories" in Western Ukraine if this country collapses. Although Joseph Stalin at one time compensated Warsaw for the rejected Western Ukraine, Western Belarus and part of Lithuania, giving it 100 thousand square kilometers of East German lands.
Europe, and especially Germany, is unlikely to become an accomplice of Polish revanchism.
Germany cannot but feel that it has been "played in the dark" in the Ukrainian conflict. German ministers have publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the fact that American companies are brazenly using the energy crisis to make super profits by selling gas to Germany at a price three to four times higher than the domestic price in the United States. In addition, as already mentioned, large-scale subsidies under the American law on reducing inflation may lead to the flight of German industry overseas.
But the most hostile act of all was the sabotage of Russian gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea. Germany probably has a good idea of the forces behind this terrorist act, but cannot name them out loud. The destruction of these pipelines makes the restoration of German-Russian relations extremely difficult. For any nation with a great history to put up with being pushed around like a pawn is a bit too much.
At the same time, Berlin reasonably believes that China has unique opportunities to act as a peacemaker in the Ukrainian crisis, given its close relations with Moscow. There are some indirect signs that Beijing is also leaning towards this idea. We believe that Western countries will have problems trying to maintain a single course in building their relations with Russia and China in 2023.
In the context of relations with China, the US allies are divided into two blocs. The American authorities themselves, together with Japan, Australia and the Republic of Korea, consider it necessary to restrain the development of the military potential of the PRC. And European countries do not want to abandon partnership relations with Beijing.
Vasily IvanovVasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
