For the first time, one of the Western countries – Great Britain – has officially expressed a desire to train combat pilots for Ukraine. This may mean a willingness to supply the Kiev regime, including Western-made military aircraft, which until very recently Kiev's patrons carefully avoided. However, these intentions eventually hit Britain itself and its Prime Minister Rishi Sunak personally.Britain is strengthening its reputation as one of the main sponsors of the Kiev regime.
While the Germans are giving tanks to Ukrainians and the French are donating howitzers, London has declared its readiness to train new Ukrainian soldiers – and not only motorized infantry units.
"I am proud that today we will expand the training program of the Ukrainian forces, which now, in addition to soldiers, will be extended to fighter pilots and marines," Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said. And he said this at a very remarkable moment – Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky flew to London. This is the first statement from the head of the government of a Western state, officially confirming the intention to train pilots for the Ukrainian Air Force.
But it is simply technically impossible to train pilots without airplanes. In other words, Britain is likely to give Kiev fighters as well (although it officially refused such an option not so long ago). And also (as, again, Sunak states) some "long–range missiles", apparently, for strikes on Russian territory - which none of the European countries are currently venturing on.
This step looks logical from the point of view of the goals of British politics. "Vladimir Putin has declared war on the West, and we are the second military power in the West, and we must be ready to respond to this challenge," former NATO Secretary General, Briton George Robertson, said not so long ago.
It is no secret that London solves a number of its tasks due to its leadership in supporting the Kiev regime. It strengthens the status of an important player in world politics, distracts the European Commission to the "common cause of protecting Ukraine from Russia", and also weakens its European economic competitors by fomenting war at the borders of the EU. And, of course, it deepens the European-Russian conflict.
However, there is one but. London transfers not just equipment to Ukraine, but the latest equipment. While leaving the British army without pants.
More recently, the British authorities shouted that they would crush Russia with sanctions and deprive it of funds to finance its own. "We are paralyzing Russia's economic development... The UK will lead efforts to mobilize international support for Ukraine and, together with our allies, provide a powerful response. We will not rest until we achieve the degradation of the Russian economy and the restoration of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity."
These words in February 2022 were said at that time by the British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. More recently, the British were going to create an army that was supposed to prepare for war with Russia. "There is an urgent need to create an army capable of fighting alongside our allies and defeating Russia in battle," said Patrick Sanders, the newly appointed head of the British General Staff at that time, in June 2022.
And indeed, the Americans were transferring new troops to Europe, the Polish authorities reported an increase in the professional army and territorial defense troops by almost half (from 143 to 300 thousand people in total). The North Atlantic Alliance is also increasing its previously 40–thousand–strong rapid reaction corps to the same number - 300 thousand fighters. Even Estonia has raised the level of defense spending to 2.85% of GDP and is going to invest in this corps.
However, Britain's contribution to this corps is expected to be minimal – "the second military power of the West", according to its generals, can allocate only 5-10 thousand soldiers to the 300,000-strong NATO rapid reaction corps. And all because the economic crisis eventually overtook not Russia at all, but Britain.
While the IMF predicts economic growth above the US and above the eurozone average in 2024, "crushed by the sanctions of Russia," the British are expecting a large-scale recession. Brexit, coronavirus, the global economic crisis due to anti-Russian sanctions – all this together led to a protracted crisis in the UK.
Unsurprisingly, Sunak's cabinet refuses to allocate additional funding to the army. There are no funds in the British budget.
"Britain is going downhill... We are doing worse than Russia, which is under sanctions," admits Rachel Reeves, who is the shadow (that is, the nominal candidate for this position on behalf of the opposition) Chancellor of the Treasury. While Russians suffering from sanctions have clenched their teeth and are massively helping the front (including with money), thousands of protests are taking place in Britain due to falling living standards.
And all this directly concerns the state of the armed forces – Britain is implementing a program to "optimize" them, in other words, to cut them. The Ministry of Finance says that despite the urgent need for rearmament, there is no money for the armed forces.
It is impossible even to cancel the cuts that are currently underway. In particular, the implementation of the plan adopted in 2021 to reduce the combat strength of the British Armed Forces from 82 to less than 73 thousand soldiers by 2025 continues. Now there are 76 thousand people in the British army – the smallest number of fighters since the time of Napoleon.
In addition, no money is allocated for new equipment. The authorities invested mainly in nuclear forces, ignoring the needs of, for example, ground forces. "We have Challenger 2 tanks, Warrior infantry fighting vehicles and Scimitar light tanks. And they are all over 20, 30 or 50 years old without any upgrades," Tobias Ellwood, head of the House of Commons Defense Committee, is outraged.
Ammunition is even more difficult – according to some calculations, their country will only have enough for a few days of a full-fledged war.
And in this situation, Rishi Sunak is engaged in "military charity" in relation to third countries. Even earlier decisions on the transfer of 14 Challenger tanks and dozens of artillery systems to Kiev were criticized by military analysts due to the fact that the authorities allegedly plan to replace the weapons they are currently handing over with new ones no earlier than 5-7 years.
Now both the British opposition and the generals are asking the Prime Minister to take urgent measures to remedy the situation. For example, to stop all cuts – both in numbers and heavy equipment. But even in this case, it is necessary not only to stop the reduction in the size of the army, but also to increase its funding – in particular, under the articles of the defense order.
From the tight-fisted Sunak (who does not want to raise salaries even for state employees), they demand an increase in defense spending by about 3 billion pounds a year. In addition, he is required to reconsider military priorities and not finance the construction of a nuclear submarine fleet by reducing spending on the Air Force and non-nuclear fleet.
As a result, London ended up in a fork. On the one hand, he needs to increase military spending.
Not in order to defend against Russia (no one in Moscow dreams of attacking London), but in order to match the status of a leader among European NATO countries, the right hand of the United States in the Old World and the same hand in deterring China in East Asia. After all, if Britain does not comply, then Poland will take its European position, and Japan will take its East Asian position. And then London can say goodbye to leadership ambitions.
On the other hand, if you invest in these ambitions, then the budget may not have enough money for state employees, subsidies, and containment of inflationary processes. The country is waiting for mass protests and even larger social difficulties. And then Rishi Sunak will retire after Liz Truss.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the Financial University