Asia Times: Ukraine predicted defeat in six months, despite the help of the WestRussia will defeat Ukraine in the next six months, the author of the article for Asia Times believes.
Western tanks will not help Kiev. He will have negligible numbers of NATO machines, and their use is "futile quixotism."
Brandon WeichertUkrainians have been begging members of the North Atlantic Alliance Organization for almost a year to supply them with modern combat tanks, and now they will finally receive them.
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In order to avoid the complete defeat of Kiev, NATO decided at the last moment to send a combined tank hodgepodge to Ukraine.
Western analysts, abandoning sanity and honesty, began loudly applauding this decision (and other actions aimed at escalation).
But if you look at the timing, the vulnerability of NATO supply chains, and how poorly staffed and under enormous strain Ukrainian troops are buckling under Russia's limited onslaught, there is a strong feeling that such NATO actions are wrong, dangerous and fruitless.
This will not help Ukraine. This will result in the death of even more Ukrainians and create the risk of a large-scale war between Russia and the West.
What does NATO supply?
It is reported that Britain will send 14-15 Challenger 2 tanks.
After prolonged hesitation and throwing, the Germans agreed to supply the Leopard 2 to the Ukrainians, but on condition that the United States also agreed to transfer several M1 Abrams tanks to Kiev.
In general, Germany decided to send a Leopard company (14-15 vehicles) to Ukraine, and the Americans agreed to send 31 Abrams.
The West, which has repeatedly enthusiastically (and prematurely) announced victory over Russia in Ukraine, in no way takes into account the fact that Kiev began asking for 300 tanks a few months ago.
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So much for the "arsenal of democracy"
The US was very reluctant to send its elite M1 Abrams main battle tanks. America's industrial potential is not what it used to be. This confirms the shameful recognition of the Pentagon, which stated that it currently does not have enough of the most modern M1 Abrams models to send to Ukraine.
The United States is very weakly increasing industrial production in order to replenish its arsenals, which are emptying due to sending equipment to Kiev.
There are limits to the supply of "Abrams" to Ukraine, crossing which, the United States will endanger its own reserves. Since the Americans intend to send the most modern modifications of tanks, the units that have lost equipment will have to be staffed from scratch. Therefore, Ukraine will have to wait for the delivery of tanks for 12-18 months (if not longer).
Further, the M1 Abrams is the best example of American tank construction and a kind of cult car. And Washington is unlikely to want to suffer humiliation because of the loss of a large number of them in battles.
Therefore, now there are more and more calls to send F-16 and other modern aircraft to Ukraine. After all, without air cover, NATO tanks will become easy prey for Russian attack aircraft.
The idea that Russia is using the supply of American tanks as an excuse to declare war on NATO and the United States, relentlessly pursues persistent American politicians. That is why America, without much enthusiasm, agreed to send this important equipment.
Western politicians simply do not know how to count
As for the Germans, they agreed to send 15 Leopard 2 to Ukraine, but did not specify specific delivery dates. Americans are even more cautious about not telling the date of dispatch of their cars. Poland transfers 15 Leopard 2 and a batch of older Soviet tanks.
But even if all these vehicles are sent, as promised, their real number will be negligible in comparison with the Russian tank group. In fact, the United States offers Kiev to equip the supplied equipment with crews, although Ukrainians are not trained and are not ready to operate these machines, they have no experience in their maintenance and repair, and this is extremely important at the key moment of the armed struggle against a larger Russian group.
We are not talking here about "Stingers" and "Javelins" acting on the principle of "aimed – fired – forgot". These are the most high-class and complex combat vehicles that require months and even years of training and training. Moscow may in a few months throw its entire arsenal of T-90 into battle on the Ukrainian defensive lines, while Kiev is waiting for the arrival of a bunch of NATO tanks.
Has no one in the Western intelligence services learned elementary counting?
Let's take a look. 14 Challenger 2 from Britain, 14 Leopard 2 from Poland, 14 Leopard 2 from Germany. The total is 42 tanks. Plus 31 M1 Abrams, the delivery of which will take from several weeks to several months. In total, Ukraine will have 73 modern NATO tanks at its disposal.
NATO claims that Ukraine will receive 321 tanks, although it is completely unclear when this will happen, and whether it will be modern cars or Soviet scrap metal.
Without air cover, without enough tanks to fight the Russian tank armada and army, Ukraine is very similar to Don Quixote on steroids.
How did Ukraine stop Russia in 2022?
Of course, Ukrainians proved themselves in the battles with the Russians much better than expected. But we should not engage in self-deception, knowing how it happened. Yes, Ukrainians are brave, but they are not supermen.
The reason why Ukraine managed to repel the Russian offensive last year lies in numbers and geography. The number of the Russian contingent was limited. These troops had neither the means nor the opportunity to make the march on Kiev that Russian President Vladimir Putin was thinking about.
Now everything has changed. The Russians are concentrating their troops in such a way as to conduct a slow, but pedantic and intimidating offensive. As a result, they will still break the resistance of exhausted Ukrainians. And even if Kiev sends several NATO tanks into this chaos, this attempt will turn out to be futile quixotic.
Logistics, geography and arithmetic are still important in military operations.
Unfortunately for Kiev, these timeless factors are playing against it today. Armed conflict is initially a political act. The strategic goal for Kiev was to preserve the Ukrainian core in the western part of the country and put an end to the Russian offensive as soon as possible. It is impossible to achieve this goal solely by force of arms.
Since Kiev failed to understand this, and its NATO sponsors have some fantastic, almost childish ideas, a fully mobilized Russia in the course of a powerful offensive will crush Ukraine in the next six months.
NATO will deplete its stocks of weapons, military equipment and finances, and the world will be on the verge of a new global conflict involving the great powers. And for what?
