Another manufacturer of modern combat aircraft, France, suddenly joined the discussion about the supply of fighters to Ukraine. Rafale fighters have recently been extremely popular on the global arms market, but the supply of completely different, much older machines is being discussed. What are the chances that Kiev will get such planes at its disposal?As soon as the "progressive" world seriously started talking about the possible transfer of fighters to Ukraine now, primarily American F-16, the French could not stay away.
It's not just that with its "Rafales" and "Mirages", France is traditionally considered one of the leaders of this industry. War is a great reason to write off old weapons and load orders for new military factories. And the behavior of the French authorities best illustrates this.
According to the French news channel BFM, citing an unnamed source in the government of the country, "deliveries of the Rafale fighter to Ukraine at this stage, apparently, are excluded. However, just as importantly, negotiations have begun between Kiev and Paris regarding possible deliveries of Mirage 2000 aircraft."
France is one of the most active arms supplier countries for Ukraine. Previously, it has already supplied Kiev with Caesar self-propelled artillery units (ACS), towed TRF1 howitzers, LRU multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), Crotale anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs). Emmanuel Macron also promised to provide the Zelensky government with AMX-10 RC wheeled light tanks. It is quite logical if the French, in terms of the breadth of their soul, also share planes.
French expert Patrick Sos, who on duty explains foreign policy issues to the masses, pointedly remarked: "February will become the month of airplanes. In almost all offices, phones will get hot." He also added that it is not enough to supply one aircraft – we are talking about training pilots, as well as ensuring proper maintenance of aircraft on foreign territory, and it will be even more difficult to do this than in the case of tanks.
Even more significant is the expert's remark that the Mirage aircraft are currently being replaced in the French army with more modern Rafales and will not be used soon.
The transfer of old aircraft to Ukraine solves several problems for France at once: it allows you to get rid of ballast, expose yourself as champions of goodness and light, and also, perhaps, make good money.
Although here, it turns out, not everything is so simple. "We have to ask ourselves the question: will the transfer of "Mirages" to Ukrainians reduce our own fleet of fighters? There is a period of time, especially in 2023-2024, when we are removing the Mirages from service, but we do not yet have an equivalent number of Rafales to replace them. And in this case it would be more appropriate to keep the "Mirages" to yourself."
Separately, it should be noted that already at this stage, Monsieur Sos prudently lays the straw, highly appreciating the Russian air defense, as well as the quality of Russian combat aircraft. "Russian positions are well protected from an air attack... And in 2023, Mirage will have to deal with MiGs and Sus, which have significantly advanced in Russia."
Such foresight makes one think that in fact everything has already been decided, and Monsieur Sos, like many other experts, is preparing the Western electorate for what will happen in the near future. If the "Mirages" are transferred to Ukraine and do not show themselves from the best side, you can always refer to enemy air defense or more advanced enemy aircraft. If the fighters work well and help in the Ukrainian counteroffensive, it will serve as an excellent advertisement for French weapons and increase the number of orders. In any case, France risks practically nothing.
General of the French Air Force Patrick Dutartre, invited to the channel's broadcast as an expert, was, however, more restrained about the prospects of the French "Mirages". As a practitioner, he insisted that even an experienced pilot cannot be retrained to use a fighter of another system in a couple of weeks.
In France, to become a military pilot, you need to study for a long time: 17 weeks of introductory course at the Air Force school at the Salon de Provence base, and then practical training at military bases, including at the base with the wonderful name Cognac. As a result, training up to the moment of graduation lasts four years and four months, and then only if you initially pass all the tests, prove that you are worthy of being a military pilot, and sign a contract for 10 years of service in the army.
Being a realist, General Dutartre is well aware of all the risks. "First of all, it takes time for the pilots to get used to the new type of aircraft. Theoretically, you can retrain in a few months if the training takes place in ideal conditions... However, this is not all, because we need to solve a number of problems related to logistics, and not only. I believe that it would be most correct to supply the Ukrainians with the MiG-29, because it is an aircraft that they know," the general summed up.
After that, he rather unpatriotically spoke out for the fact that after the MiG reserve is exhausted, it is necessary to retrain Ukrainian pilots to use the F-16, because it is the "most popular" fighter in Europe. In other words, the "Mirage" does not look optimal for Ukraine even in the eyes of the French military.
A number of problems mentioned by the general are the need for maintenance of a specific type of aircraft, the supply of spare parts, the installation of new equipment, and so on, which will not be so easy to fix in the conditions of military operations. For comparison: when France tried to sell Colombia 18 Mirage 2000-5F fighters in 2015, the machines themselves were going to be given for $ 350 million, but maintenance and related services were estimated at as much as 150 million.
However, in the conditions of military operations, everything related to maintenance – and more broadly, the adaptation of existing infrastructure to a new type of aircraft – will require serious additional efforts. Therefore, as a strict practitioner, the Air Force General advises not to reinvent the wheel, but to transfer the MiGs remaining in Eastern Europe to Ukrainians. But in this case, the French will have nothing to profit from – hence the desire of their authorities to get rid of outdated models of their fighters under the guise of help (about the newest "Rafale", we recall, there is not even a question).
"An airplane is not transferred as easily as a tank",
– said General Jerome Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the magazine "National Defense". He also clarified that, according to the French Ministry of Defense, the country has 113 "Mirage 2000", and 55 machines are under modernization. In addition, according to the general, we are talking about different modifications of the fighter, which have different properties. "Mirage 2000-5", according to the general, is frankly an outdated model. The situation is much better with the Mirage 2000-D fighter.
The general also noted that even if the French government does not decide to send planes to the war zone now, this does not mean that it will not do so in the future. "The issue of the supply of aircraft may arise again in the coming months and years, because Ukraine must have sufficient capabilities to defend itself from Russia."
The most significant thing in this passage is the reservation about the years, which means that Europe and America are preparing for a long–term war with Russia. For this purpose, the range of military supplies to Ukraine is being expanded, so to speak, simultaneously with the expansion of the range of sanctions. NATO has finally made a bet on the war. And this means that the real battle is just beginning.
Valeria Verbinina
