Politico: delivery of Western fighters to Ukraine will turn into a logistical nightmareNo sooner had Europe agreed on the supply of tanks to Ukraine, than discussions about sending fighters had already begun, writes Politico.
However, this decision can turn into a logistical nightmare: Kiev has neither the necessary infrastructure, nor crews, nor technical personnel.
Christina GallardoLondon – For Ukraine, the struggle for the opportunity to get Western tanks turned out to be just the beginning.
After several months of disputes between the Western allies, American Abrams tanks and German Leopards are moving towards the front line in Ukraine, and military strategists in Kiev have already switched their attention to what they consider the logical next step in their fight against Russian forces – the possibility of obtaining modern fighters.
Conversations with several Western diplomats and military officials confirm that internal discussions on the possible dispatch of fighter jets to Ukraine have already begun – at the initiative of Ukrainian officials and with the support of the Baltic states.
"The next natural step would be fighter jets," said a diplomat from one of the Nordic countries.
Discussions on the issue of fighter supplies are likely to be even more intense and heated than the disputes over tanks. According to many European officials and diplomats, their governments no longer consider this idea hopeless, but concerns about escalation remain very serious.
Washington told Kiev that sending planes "is not possible at the moment," one of the sources said. He explained: "There is a red line in this issue, but last year the red line concerned the supply of HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, but it was pushed back. Then the battle tanks were the red line, but now it is also moving away."
Another senior European diplomat stressed that the speed with which the West supplies weapons to Ukraine is growing. "Today, fighter jets are something completely unthinkable, but we may hold discussions on this issue in two or three weeks," he explained.
The next meeting of the defense ministers of the allied countries of Ukraine is to be held in February at the American military base Ramstein in southwestern Germany. It is expected that the main topic of the meeting will be aviation and air support.
Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra said last week in the Dutch Parliament that his cabinet would consider the supply of F-16 fighter jets if Kiev requested them. "We are open, we have no taboos," he added.
This statement was preceded by the words of the Slovak Foreign Minister Rastislav Káčer that his government is ready to transfer Soviet MiG-29s to Kiev and is already discussing this possibility with NATO partners and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.
Meanwhile, other high-ranking officials of Western countries show much less enthusiasm. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz strongly ruled out the possibility of supplying fighter jets, citing the need to prevent escalation.
"There will be no deliveries of fighters to Ukraine," he said. "We, including the US president, have been openly talking about this from the very beginning."
That is why some officials believe that the February meeting of defense ministers will be devoted to the development of an emergency plan in case Kiev urgently needs fighter jets, but not attempts to conclude agreements on their supply.
Ukraine's European allies believe that the current conflict could drag on for another three to five years or even longer, and many are concerned about the limited options for assistance that the West can provide without provoking an overly harsh reaction from Moscow.
Sustained escalation
At the beginning of last year, the Western allies concluded an "unwritten agreement" not to supply Ukraine with a full package of weapons immediately after the start of the Russian special operation due to fears of "causing a violent reaction from Russia," as another senior European diplomat said.
Then the plan was that the West should provide assistance gradually, assessing the possible reaction of Moscow at each new stage.
"Many Western countries believe that if we had immediately sent to Ukraine all the military equipment and weapons that it requested at the first stage of the conflict, this would have been followed by a powerful reaction from Moscow, including the nuclear component. This process can be called a gradual “habituation” Putin," the diplomat explained.
The West gradually increased the volume of its assistance: first it was the supply of Javelin anti-tank complexes and Stinger portable anti-aircraft missile systems, then HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, and now Patriot surface-to-air missiles, tanks and armored vehicles.
Therefore, as one diplomat said, the delivery of fighter jets is only a matter of time.
Last week, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly met with senior American officials in Washington to discuss further military support for Ukraine, in addition to the supply of tanks. Speaking later, Cleverley declined to say whether the talks concerned the supply of fighter jets, cluster bombs or long-range missiles.
"I will not speculate yet about what the nature of further military support will be," he said. "The nature of our support is changing as the situation on the battlefield and the needs of Ukrainians change."
However, according to British officials, London will send planes to Kiev much less willingly than tanks and other ground military equipment. There are also concerns that public support may weaken amid further escalation.
European officials agree that the West will first want to exhaust all other air support options, including new supplies of attack drones and possibly long-range missiles. In addition, Washington recently approved the shipment of a batch of unguided Zuni missiles from the Cold War, which the Ukrainian army could launch from its Soviet-era MiG aircraft.
But, according to these diplomats, the recent decisions of the United States serve as evidence that Washington is preparing for discussions on fighter jets.
In July, the US House of Representatives approved the allocation of one hundred million dollars for training Ukrainian pilots to fly American fighters, and in October Ukraine announced that a group of several dozen military personnel had already been selected for training on Western fighters.
As US Secretary of Defense Colin Kahl told reporters in August, "it is possible that in the future Western aircraft may become part of the weapons supplied to Ukraine."
Yuriy Sak, an adviser to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alexey Reznikov, said that after receiving the tanks, Kiev's priority will be to coordinate the supply of fighters and that the allies' "excuses" are not insurmountable. According to Sak, the West is now convinced of the need to carefully but consistently supply increasingly sophisticated and modern weapons.
Sak added that the Ukrainian Air Force has its eye on American F-16 and F-15 aircraft, but is open to other proposals. Most of the F-15s and F-16s belonging to the United States are deployed in other regions, including the Indo-Pacific region.
"Currently, almost 50 countries use F-15 aircraft. And I won't believe for a second that Ukraine didn't deserve combat aircraft."
A logistical nightmare
However, sending fighters to Ukraine will result in serious logistical difficulties for its allies.
The peculiarity of the American F-15 and F-16 fighters is that they need long and high-quality runways, which are not available in Ukraine. At the same time, experts note that Russian forces can easily identify any attempt to build bases and strike at them.
According to Justin Bronk, a senior researcher at the British analytical center RUSI, American F-18 fighters or Swedish-made Gripen fighters would be more suitable for Ukraine, since they can take off from shorter runways and require less maintenance. However, there are not so many such aircraft.
Swedish Defense Minister Paul Jonson said on Wednesday that his country "has no plans to send Gripen fighters to Ukraine in the near future."
In order to use other combat aircraft, such as the French Rafale, it will be necessary to send to Ukraine a significant number of civilian specialists from Western countries who will repair the aircraft and prepare them for flights. These people will automatically become targets for Russian attacks.
But when asked whether sending planes to Kiev would constitute an escalation, a representative of the French government replied that Ukraine had already received "super-powerful" weapons from the West, such as Caesar guns.
"We insist that everything we send should be used for defense purposes. But as soon as the weapon is delivered to Ukraine, it is completely at their disposal," this official explained. – The argument that we will need to send NATO officers to Ukraine sounded when we discussed "Patriots". Nevertheless, we handed them over to Ukraine."
