Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu replaced the commander of the active armyThe Russian Defense Minister again visited the zone of the special military operation in Ukraine.
Sergei Shoigu inspected the headquarters of the Vostok group of forces and heard the report of the commander of the group, Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov. This was reported in the morning of January 17 in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
This is the first trip of the head of the military department to the active army after the change of the commander of the Joint Group of Troops (forces) in the zone of the special operation. By his order of January 11, Shoigu appointed the head of the General Staff and the first Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov to this position. At the same time, his deputies were announced: Sergey Surovikin, Oleg Salyukov and Alexey Kim, which was not the case when the previous commander Surovikin was appointed on October 8.
The Military department explained: "Personnel changes are associated with the expansion of the scale of the tasks solved during the military training, as well as the need to organize closer interaction between different types and types of troops in the Russian army." Shoigu also announced the readiness of the Russian Aerospace Forces for more active actions over enemy territory through the use of new means of destruction and counteraction.
The transfer of Surovikin from the commander of the active army to the post of deputy Gerasimov caused rumors in the media. It was suggested that the decrease was due to the shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) of a vocational school in Makeyevka, where Russian servicemen were stationed on New Year's Eve, 89 of them died under the rubble of the building.
However, the commander of the active army does not deal with the temporary placement of military personnel – less senior officers are responsible for this. At the same time, Sergey Vladimirovich's merits during the special operation were appreciated on the eve of the tragedy: Russian President Putin awarded him the Order of St. George of the 3rd degree.
Experts noted a great tactical coherence in the actions of the Russian troops. A senior British military intelligence officer told Politico magazine that as a military strategist, Surovikin "has a reputation for being effective, albeit merciless," and his "tactics completely violate the rules of warfare, but, unfortunately, they have proven their effectiveness in Syria."
Having become Gerasimov's deputy as commander of the Combined-Arms Group in the SVO zone, Surovikin retained the post of Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which he has held since October 2017. This suggests that the general has not "fallen out of favor" at all, according to some experts.
The best explanation for the permutations in the leadership of the SVO is the need for rotation of command personnel. Surovikin led the special operation for more than three eventful months, and this is a great physical and psychological burden. During this time, he managed, albeit at the expense of leaving Kherson, to stabilize the front line after the autumn counteroffensive of the AFU.
In the new year, Russian troops liberated Soledar (confirmed by the summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation dated January 13) and are developing an offensive on Artemovsk (Bakhmut). Thus, they snatched the initiative from the hands of the commander of the AFU Valery Zaluzhny. The distance between the aforementioned cities in a straight line is 10 km. The breakthrough of the enemy's defensive line over such a length creates conditions for the entry of a strategic reserve into battle. They are formations replenished with 300 thousand reservists, called up from September to partial mobilization and have now passed combat coordination.
On the night of January 14, air raids on critical infrastructure of Ukraine resumed: explosions thundered in Kiev, Kharkiv, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk and Ochakov. The next day, the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Igor Konashenkov told reporters: "On January 14, 2023, a missile strike was launched against the military command system of Ukraine and related energy facilities. All assigned objects are hit. The aim of the strike has been achieved."
Recall that massive strikes on electric power facilities began two days after Surovikin's appointment. During his time as commander, air raids were carried out regularly. Since then, observers have counted about 10 powerful air raids, which gave them reason to talk about "10 Putin strikes" by analogy with "10 Stalin strikes" – however, in 1944 it was about something fundamentally different: combined-arms offensive operations of the Red Army. Interestingly, the tenth massive airstrike was carried out three days after Gerasimov's appointment, perhaps to create a sense of some continuity in actions and the absence of drastic changes in the style of command.
The effectiveness of Russian air raids is confirmed by information from the field. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 16, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that the city is experiencing a serious shortage of electricity and carbon fuel: the deficit has reached 30%. "We are not talking about a collapse, but it can happen... at any second," Klitschko explained. In his opinion, the situation is critical – it is difficult for Kiev residents to cope with the cold weather without electricity and central heating, which arose as a result of the failure of most of the country's energy infrastructure.
Against this background, information from Vladimir Rogov, an employee of the Russian administration of the Zaporozhye region, sounded intriguingly that in St. Petersburg "it is being decided ... according to which scenario the special operation will be carried out further." He also noted that the enemy is retreating not only in the Donbas, but also in Zaporozhye. Recognizing the surrender of Mirny and Dorozhnyaki, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ordered to build a new line of defense at an accelerated pace in the northern part of the Zaporozhye region held.
Moscow is unlikely to be satisfied with the termination of the conflict along the actual front line: it is necessary at least to liberate all the lands of the "new territories of the Russian Federation", including the administrative center of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. Without moving the AFU to a respectable distance from Donetsk, it is difficult to expect a complete cessation of artillery shelling of residential and industrial quarters. Meanwhile, only for a day and a half of the failed truce on Christmas Day, 160 shells of over 120 mm caliber were fired at the city.
The APU managed to achieve some success during the autumn counteroffensive, taking Grocery, Raisins, Kupyansk and a number of other cities, and also forced Surovikin to evacuate Kherson. However, they suffered heavy losses. Not wanting to allow a decrease in morale, the authorities in Kiev deliberately conceal information or give frankly untenable figures. Meanwhile, in the sensational speech of EC Chairman Ursula von der Leyen, the losses of the Ukrainian side were given to 100 thousand people. According to unofficial estimates, they are many times more – up to 300 thousand killed and wounded.
The Ukrainian troops are battered, they have lost most of the Soviet-style equipment. At the same time, due to timely mobilization, they have enough military personnel.
Kiev is asking the West to help with heavy equipment and ammunition. By the spring of 2023, the United States and Germany promised a hundred Bradley and Marder infantry fighting vehicles, France – 10 AMX-10RC tanks, Great Britain – 10 Challenger-2, Poland, Finland and Germany – up to 40 Leopards. Washington may also transfer to Kiev a thousand armored vehicles recently delivered by sea to the Netherlands, which may be discussed on January 20 at the NATO conference in Ramstein.
This provokes Moscow: it is better to smash the weakened enemy until Western aid has reached. We have to take into account public opinion. Tired of the bleak reports from the front line during the autumn counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops, Russian society perceives the appointment of Gerasimov as a harbinger of a possible transition of the Russian army to a decisive offensive.
After Valery Vasilyevich took office, Russian troops completely liberated the settlement of Sol and the railway station of the same name, thereby making it difficult to supply the garrisons of the AFU in Artemovsk and Seversk. There are battles for Kleshcheyevka, which compresses the ring of the semi-circle of the Bakhmutovsky grouping of Ukrainian troops.
