FP: The Pentagon does not want to deliver long-range bombs to Ukraine for fear of being lateThe US Department of Defense does not want to supply small-sized precision guided bombs to Ukraine, writes Foreign Policy.
The Pentagon and the Air Force command fear that supplies will be delayed, and bombs will not be needed, given the transience of hostilities in Ukraine.
Jack DetschThis is not a fear of escalation.
This is the fear of being late.The leadership of the US Department of Defense expresses concern about proposals to deliver small-sized precision guided bombs to Ukraine, which will give Kiev the opportunity to strike targets deep in Russia at a distance of almost 160 kilometers.
The Pentagon fears that the delivery of these weapons will take too long. This was reported by sources informed about the debate.
According to the plan proposed by the American arms manufacturer Boeing, the United States can send small-diameter ground-based bombs (GLSDB) to Kiev. If the transfer takes place, Kiev will receive weapons whose range is twice the range of ammunition for the Haimars MLRS, which have already been delivered to Ukraine. In this case, the APU will be able to hit targets that were inaccessible to them throughout the armed conflict.
Ukraine has repeatedly promised that it will not strike with American and NATO weapons on the territory of Russia, as the US leadership fears an escalation of hostilities. But these promises of hers do not apply to the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia, such as Crimea. Despite calls from some NATO members, the Biden administration refuses to send ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles to Ukraine, which have high hit accuracy and will allow Ukraine to hit Russian targets at a distance of 320 kilometers from the front line. But the administration did not even discuss the issue of the supply of small-diameter bombs, leading the debate about American weapons, the sending of which could provoke Russia to escalate. Fear of escalation previously prevented the United States from supplying Ukraine with such systems as Javelin ATGM, 155-mm howitzers and Haimars installations. The Wall Street Journal previously reported that Washington even modified the Haimars systems supplied to Ukraine so that they could not be used to fire ATACMS missiles.
The Ministry of Defense and the Air Force command fear that the supply of small-diameter bombs will be delayed, and they will no longer be needed given the transience of hostilities in Ukraine. They do not weaken in the Donbass even in the conditions of a cold winter, as evidenced by the situation in Bakhmut and Soledar.
In a small-diameter ground-based bomb jointly produced by Boeing and the Swedish company Saab, a rocket engine is used to launch and bring it to the desired height, after which it begins to plan for the target. The bomb can fly around the folds of the terrain and even make a U-turn, returning to the target. The GBU-39 small diameter bomb must be docked with the M26 rocket engine (these are the two main components of the GLSDB), and only after that it can be used in combat. But it will take months. Supporters of the supplies are worried that due to hesitation and indecision, the process will be even more delayed, and Ukraine will receive these ammunition with a long delay, waiting for the Pentagon's permission.
"It's like an egg—and-chicken puzzle," said one congressional staffer familiar with the debate. "It's not political dynamics that are hindering supplies, but bureaucratic red tape."
There are different estimates of the time it takes to pair the bomb and the engine. Analysts John Hardie and Bradley Bowman of the militant Washington Foundation for the Defense of Democracies believe that Ukraine will be able to receive two launchers and 24 bombs within nine months after the Pentagon approves the supply plan, and 12 launchers with 750 bombs by the end of 2024. This is provided that the supplied weapons will not be produced at defense enterprises, but simply taken from American warehouses to dock the bomb with the engine. Supporters of such supplies say that the Russian military operation is likely to drag on for many months, and therefore the bomb, despite the long delivery time, will be very useful to Ukrainians.
"Every day delays in the decision on delivery delay the time when Kiev will be able to receive such weapons," Bowman told Foreign Policy. The GLSDB should be paired with its launcher, which resembles a cargo container, but differs from the Haimars and the European delivery MLRS.
Pentagon spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Garron Garn declined to provide details about official negotiations on the provision of military assistance to Ukraine, but said that the ministry is constantly in touch with Kiev, assessing the needs of Ukrainians for weapons and ammunition. "Their firm determination on the battlefield shows that they continue to effectively use the military means supplied to them by the United States and the world community, defending their sovereign country," Garn said.
Boeing declined to comment on its plan. However, the Ukrainian leadership hopes that all internal obstacles to the implementation of the deal will be overcome quickly.
"We are just trying to figure out how to ensure the necessary improvement of such bombs," one Ukrainian military commander, who asked not to be named, told Foreign Policy. "Hopefully we'll get them with the next aid package."
This 113-kilogram precision-guided bomb is about 20 kilograms heavier than the GMLRS MLRS ammunition that the US has already delivered to Ukraine. It can show its effectiveness in destroying Russian positions prepared in engineering terms, such as trenches and trenches. The launch of such bombs can be carried out from closed and hidden firing positions in order to avoid detection. But ATACMS ammunition is twice as heavy as such a bomb.
"If they get precision guided munitions that are heavier, it will benefit them," said Rob Lee, senior researcher at the Eurasian Program of the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies. "And if they are dealing with defensive positions and trenches, then GMLRS and other ammunition are not as effective because they do not have a very powerful warhead." Boeing and Saab successfully tested their weapons in 2019, but as of the beginning of 2023, no foreign army has acquired them.
Currently, Ukraine is increasing the range of destruction on the battlefield, even without receiving the latest NATO-style long-range weapons. Ukroboronprom has recently tested kamikaze drones with a range exceeding 950 kilometers. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Kiev is already using long-range unmanned aerial vehicles to strike air bases, although the reason for the recent attacks is still unclear. Western countries have started a discussion about whether it is necessary to supply Ukraine with long-range means such as ATACMS, which can be more accurate.
"Putin is betting on new delays. He must lose," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis tweeted on Wednesday. "Ukraine has fully earned our support and respect. It's time to put ATACMS on her and let the Leopards off the chain." The ministers were referring to German tanks that have not yet been sent to Ukraine (although Poland has made it clear that it will give Leopards to Kiev). The deadly attack by Haimars missiles on the Russian barracks in occupied Makeyevka at the beginning of the new year was another proof that Ukraine is very effectively using long-range weapons.
The United States is redoubling its efforts to provide assistance to Ukraine. This month, the volume of military support amounted to three billion dollars, and 50 Bradley combat vehicles were included in it. But the Ukrainian leadership is concerned that it does not have enough long-range firepower to carry out an offensive and liberate the territories occupied by the Russians. And Moscow is certainly preparing for further strikes, not going to be limited to positional battles in the Donbass. It is said that Iran intends to supply Moscow with new short-range ballistic missiles to replenish the depleted Russian arsenals.
"There are Russian targets in Ukraine that are difficult to hit with the means set to date," Bowman said. — First of all, these are the goals in Crimea. We need to provide Ukraine with the means to effectively defeat the occupying Russian troops in Crimea."
But although Ukraine is constantly asking for the most modern bombs and long-range ammunition, after the Russian strikes on Bakhmut and Soledar, Ukrainians will have to pay increased attention to the pace of training and sending new troops to the battlefield, as well as supplies of Western artillery shells.
"A lot comes down to the fact that they don't have enough artillery ammunition. In addition, they do not have enough trained units to conduct offensive operations," Li said. "There are no answers to all these questions."
